Angry in the Great White North

Against my better judgement, let's look at the Ipsos-Reid poll:

The Liberals' steady surge in public support under Michael Ignatieff's leadership has levelled off, but the party remains in a tight race with the governing Conservatives, suggests a new poll.

The latest survey, conducted for Canwest News Service and Global National, shows the Harper Conservatives have edged up two percentage points in recent weeks, to capture a slim lead with 35 per cent support.

The Liberals, while significantly ahead of their showing under former leader Stephane Dion, have dropped three points to 33 per cent support of decided voters.

Cheering from the Conservatives.  Insults from Liberals aimed at Ipsos-Reid.  Predictable stuff.

Even if you think the Conservatives aren't ahead, you have to realize they aren't far behind, and indeed the Conservatives and Liberals are essentially tied.

Tied?

With a person described by many as a dynamic charismatic intellectual leading the Liberals?

Tied?

With the economy staggering and unemployment growing?

Tied?

With the media pundits almost universally criticizing the anti-Ignatieff ads as insulting to Canadians?

Tied?

And yet despite all these factors (real or imagined) working their favour, all the Liberals have managed to do is crawl up to a tie with the Conservatives, then collapse panting, perhaps even slipping back slightly, as suggested by the latest poll.

Liberal strategists and supporters have to wonder just why this is happening.  By rights, the Conservatives ought to have collapsed and the Liberals would just stroll into power.  Why is the Conservative brand so resilient?

See?  I said it.  The resilient Conservative brand.

It's not just the Liberals who can claim to have a resilient brand nowadays.  And maybe pundits ought to going on about Liberal resiliency so much.

As the pollsters have noted, the anti-Ignatieff ads have yet to truly have an effect, and the slow but perceptible improvement in the economy has yet to hit full speed.  When those factors kick in, the Liberals might find themselves slipping behind again.

Canadians might stop liking Michael Ignatieff, essentially a default reaction because until now, most Canadians weren't sure of reasons not to like him.

Canadians might stop blaming Stephen Harper for a recession, and even credit him once the grey economic clouds start to clear away.

More and more, it seems like those people who have said the there will an election in early summer or no election until well into 2010 (or beyond) are right.  The window of opportunity for the Liberals might be five or six weeks, maybe less, especially if there are more polls like this one.

But how much money can the Liberals have in their pockets in that time?  And can the Liberals convince both the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois to go into yet another election, and spend a lot of money, just see votes from each of those parties shift to the Liberals?

But if Michael Ignatieff attempts to force an election and fails, or doesn't try at all, he might have squandered his best chance.  This poll hints at that possibility.   Which is funny because the poll shows that this best chance is not much of a chance at all.

After the Stephane Dion debacle, I don't know that many Liberals would have patience for a leader who squanders his best and only chance, awful as it might be

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