Angry in the Great White North

Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla will represent the Liberal Party in the riding of Brampton-Springdale in the next election:

All 77 Liberal MPs are facing a strict June 1 deadline to have a minimum 400 paid-up members in their ridings and at least 10 "Victory Fund" donors - people committed to monthly contributions to the party.

MPs who don't meet these targets - which were set by the veteran Liberal campaign chief, Senator David Smith - will have to fight to get the party nomination in their ridings before the next election.

Dhalla has been spared that fight, though, and so have 41 other MPs so far, according to a memo Smith sent out yesterday to MPs' offices.

Ruby Dhalla, of course, is embroiled in a nasty controversy.  Two former live-in caregivers and a former housekeeper have alleged that the Dhalla family (Ruby, brother Neil, and mother Tavinder) mistreated them. 

Given that Ruby Dhalla barely won her seat in the last election, the next time around might very well result in a loss if these allegations continue to cast a dark cloud over her.

So for the Liberal Party leadership, looking to hold this seat, having Ruby Dhalla ejected ahead of an election might not seem like such a bad thing.  This rule regarding signing up donors was a wonderful opportunity.  Had Ruby Dhalla not met the goals laid out, she would have been on the path of being removed as the Liberal Party candidate, and without resorting to a reference to the allegations of mistreating those caregivers.

And let's not be naive.  Had Ruby Dhalla been forced into a nomination fight, and those allegations still dogged her, I'm sure the Liberal Party would have made certain the right contender beat Dhalla.

Had it played out this way, the Liberal Party could have maintained that the reason that Ruby Dhalla was no longer the candidate was simply that she failed to meet those donor goals, and then lost her subsequent nomination battle.  In the next election, the Ruby Dhalla problem would have been largely neutralized. 

But no such luck.  Ruby Dhalla has met those donor goals, and so her nomination won't be contested.  Ruby Dhalla is here to stay, at least for the time being.  That in turn leads to three possible outcomes, the most likely of which is least appealing the Liberals. 

One possibility is that Ruby Dhalla is totally exonerated, and she competes in her riding on a solid footing. 

Not likely.

Another possibility is that the worst of the allegations are proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, and so Ruby Dhalla is forced out of politics before an election.

Also not likely.

But those two scenarios are preferred by the Liberal Party because, either way, the Ruby Dhalla problem goes away without the Liberal Party getting too deeply involved.

The third possibility is that Ruby Dhalla enters the next election as damaged goods, having been unsuccessful at shaking the allegations.  Based on what we've seen so far, I think this is the most likely outcome, unless something changes dramatically.

For the Liberals, this is the worst case scenario, because it all adds up to a lost riding.

Foreseeing this outcome, the Liberals could lean on Ruby Dhalla to resign prior to an election, but that assumes that (1) the political fallout from forcing Ruby Dhalla out is not worse than just letting her run and lose, and (2) the ambitious Ruby Dhalla allows herself to be quietly forced out in the first place.

So for the Liberals, all in all, it might have been better if Ruby Dhalla had just failed to sign up those donors.