Angry in the Great White North

Jack Layton and the NDP have tried to make history, but blew it.  They have tried to dislodge the Liberals as Canada's leftish party.  In the election of 2008, the NDP gained a mere seven seats.  At a total of 37, that is not even a historic high for the party.  And the Conservatives went up by nineteen seats, so clearly the Conservatives did much better than the NDP at grabbing Liberal votes.

When the Conservative government brought in the economic update, Jack Layton rejected it.  I still don't understand why.  Removing public funding for political parties would have hurt the Conservatives and the NDP, but they would have survived.  The Liberals, on the other hand, would have been destroyed.  Instead of taking that route, Jack Layton crafted a coalition agreement with the Liberals, supported by the Bloc Quebecois.  A majority of Canadians hated the idea, and the immediate aftermath was the implosion of what was left of Stephane Dion's leadership and the ascension of Michael Ignatieff to the leadership of the Liberal Party.  Michael Ignatieff is as right-wing as they come in the Liberal Party, and most pundits have declared the coalition dead.

So Jack Layton is facing a potentially revitalized Liberal Party (the jury is out on that, of course), and the legacy of the coalition plot that has now tainted him and the NDP in the eyes of many Canadians.

If he had played his cards right, he could have seen the Liberal Party bankrupted.  Now the future for the NDP is potentially grim, should the Liberals enjoy even a moderate renaissance.

So with that in mind, read the NDP New Year's message, and notice the utter lack of mention of the coalition with the Liberals:

"As we gather with friends and families to celebrate the New Year, we are compelled to look back at the year that was and think about what we'd like to see in the year ahead. We will reminisce about good times, and be thankful for the support of our loved ones through tough times.

"This past year hasn't been easy for a lot of Canadian families, and many of us are worried about what next year is going to bring. To everyone who shares these concerns, I'd like to say that New Democrats are listening - we get it. We know that you are looking for change in this country and I promise that we will do everything in our power to protect the prosperity of hardworking people in our nation.

"That being said, 2008 was a remarkable year in many ways. We saw the government of Canada formally apologize to survivors of residential schools, something many people thought would never happen. We watched our neighbours in the United States make a huge shift in politics with the election of Barack Obama. This year showed us what we can achieve when we pull together around a common purpose.

"For New Democrats, this was a year where the hard work of our supporters, party members and Members of Parliament paid off. We gained seven more seats in the House of Commons because our message of change really spoke to our fellow citizens and reflected their hopes for the future. To you I send special thanks for a job well done.

"And on behalf of all New Democrats, I wish everyone a happy new year, and invite you to join me in a resolution inspired by the words of Tommy Douglas: Courage, my friends, 'tis not too late to make a better world."

Mention of the residential school apology, a high point for the Conservative government (though Stephen Harper has said on more than one occasion that Jack Layton was particularly helpful on this issue, including a mention in the apology speech itself).

An attempt to hitch the NDP to the Democratic victory this past November.

Some positive spin on what was really a disappointing election result.

Not one word of the coalition.  Not one mention of Stephane Dion and the Liberals, or of working with Michael Ignatieff.  Jack Layton says that NDP supporters ought to "think about what we'd like to see in the year ahead", and yet it doesn't appear that Jack Layton is thinking about the coalition.

I've gone through the rest of the press releases, statements, fact checks, and such, and there is nothing dated after January 1 and this New Year's Greeting.

I know that in an article on January 4, Jack Layton was quoted as still pushing for the coalition, but that was a "wide-ranging year-end interview", presumably taking place on December 29 or December 30, if not earlier.

Is Jack Layton planning to spend the next three weeks lowering expectations for a coalition government based on Michael Ignatieff's obvious disdain for the whole idea?  It might make sense, if only because Jack Layton was burned by setting high expectations prior to the election and then falling far short of those expectations.

This time around, seeing the writing on the wall, Layton might be deliberately downplaying the coalition in order to avoid disappointing his supporters.

Of course, Jack Layton could prove me wrong tomorrow by being photographed downhill skiing pulling a "Liberal-NDP Coalition" banner flapping behind him.  But I doubt it.

In fact, if I was Jack Layton, I wouldn't be worried about the coalition not happening.  I'd be worried that Michael Ignatieff is planning to target the NDP as the primary impediment to a Liberal Party recovery.

Maybe that's why we're not hearing any friendly comments about the Liberals coming from Jack Layton.  Maybe the fight has already begun.  Maybe that's why we're not seeing Conservative attack ads aimed at Michael Ignatieff - the Tories are deliberately holding back so that the Liberals don't have to fight on two fronts, at least for now. 

Let's see if things continue in the direction set by Jack Layton's New Year's message.