Angry in the Great White North

I looked at the donation patterns reported by the riding associations for the Conservative Party and the Green Party in Central Nova for 2007.

Here's what I found. 

First, just as Elizabeth May parachuted herself into the riding, so did her support.  Of the nearly $16,000 in donations that came into the Green Party riding association in that year, nearly $12,000 came from out of province. Two-thirds of that out-of-province money came from southern Ontario (mostly from the Toronto core), and the rest from the lower mainland area of British Columbia.

In other words, areas of traditional Green Party support.  People from these places threw money into Central Nova in an effort to convince Nova Scotians in Central Nova to elect Elizabeth May.

The Conservative Party returns for the riding association show an even more striking pattern, though.  Being a high-profile cabinet minister, you would expect Peter MacKay's riding association would get support from across the country, and there are small donations coming in from coast to coast.  But there is a huge cluster of donations from four London-area ridings, totaling two-thirds of the $16,000 in donations.

Why London?  Recall that Elizabeth May ran in the 2006 by-election in London North Centre, and came in second, behind Glen Pearson of the Liberals.  It would seem that he relentless anti-Conservative message motivated a lot of people - against her.  These people sent thousands of dollars into Central Nova.

Conversely, of the thousands that came into Central Nova from Ontario in support of Elizabeth May, only one was from the London area.  Virtually all the rest were from the Toronto core.

I find that interesting.  We are told that Elizabeth May is the best thing about the Green Party, and that her personal popularity is the Green Party's greatest asset.  We are told this by no less than Elizabeth May herself.  And yet, despite her good showing in the London North Centre by-election, the people who voted for her did not see fit to continue supporting Elizabeth May in the much tougher fight in Central Nova. 

The flow of money from the London area into Central Nova went virtually entirely to the Conservatives, against Elizabeth May.

Perhaps Green Party supporters in London felt abandoned by Elizabeth May.  No matter.  It looks like Elizabeth May can depend on affluent guilt-ridden upper-middle class consumers to soothe their consciences by sending her money from their affluent Toronto and Vancouver neighbourhoods to whatever economically depressed riding she wants to run in.

And it would be a good plan too.  I mean, some out-of-the-way Conservative riding association on the edge of nowhere is not going to be able to raise the sort of money that would be needed to counter Elizabeth May's rich Toronto- and Vancouver-based supporters, right?

Except that the flip side of Elizabeth May's popularity is her notoriety.  It would also seem, from the numbers reported, that for all of the support she can call on from affluent guilt-ridden upper-middle class consumers in Toronto and Vancouver, there is an equally motivated and well-organized group of people who are working hard to make certain she does not get a free ride.  A group of people who had to put up with Elizabeth May through a by-election, and feel it is really important that Elizabeth May not win elected office.

No wonder Elizabeth May is so desperate to get a Senate appointment.  This election stuff is really hard.  Better to have political power handed to you on a silver platter than earning it.  Am I right?