Angry in the Great White North

Sorry for the extended break from blogging.  We've moved.  We're still in Cambridge, but as anyone can attest, a move is always disruptive, whether it is across the street or across the country.  I expect to be ramping up the blog content as things settle down in our new digs.

[By the way, in our new place, each of the kids has his or her own bedroom, and we have much more space for everything from eating to entertainment to homework and study, so the effort was definitely worth it.]

The last few days have seen Michael Ignatieff essentially telling everyone that he has no intention of bringing down the Conservatives.  I mean, Ignatieff looks serious and makes statements about how the Conservatives are going down, if he's not satisfied with the next budget.

But Michael Ignatieff has been careful not to be specific about what will satisfy him.  In doing so, he's provide the Conservatives with as much flexibility as possible to give him a face-saving way out.

In other words, Ignatieff has already made a decision.  Any stimulus, any at all, in the January budget will be all the justification Ignatieff needs to avoid a non-confidence vote.

But this highlights Ignatieff's biggest problem - time.

In the short term, Michael Ignatieff is in a honeymoon phase.  The Liberals love him because he is not Stephane Dion.  Canadians don't know him all that well, and the Conservatives have yet to define him.  That combination of relief and ignorance will never happen again. 

But Michael Ignatieff can't take advantage of it.  The Liberal Party is broke.  There is no money to fight an election, and no way to borrow money to fight an election.  In the short term, Michael Ignatieff must avoid an election and play for time.

What about the coalition?  Wouldn't that avoid an election?  It would, if you thought the Governor General would hand power to the coalition at this late date, with the polls showing how unpopular that idea is to most Canadians.  But even if the coalition is never going to take power, it doesn't meant the idea isn't still hurting the Liberal Party - but more on that in a moment.

So triggering an election in January is a non-starter.  But playing for time doesn't look so good either.  The honeymoon is going to be over the moment the Liberals vote for a Conservative budget.  Under normal circumstances, that is not a terrible thing.  If the budget has that minimal amount of Liberal-friendly policy, Michael Ignatieff can swallow it.  But the circumstances are not normal, thanks to Stephane Dion.  Instead we have this separatist coalition with the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.  So if Michael Ignatieff lets the Conservative budget to pass, a lot of Canadians on the left will be asking why a Conservative government is still in power.

These people are expecting that the Liberals and the NDP are merely waiting for the next confidence vote, that these parties will automatically vote the government down regardless of the content of the budget, and that they will compel the Governor General to install the coalition as the new government.

Even Jack Layton figures this is unrealistic now.  A non-confidence vote at this point is all but certain to result in an election.  But that doesn't mean that Jack Layton can't take advantage of the situation.  Indeed, where the Conservatives defined Stephane Dion, we might see the NDP defining Michael Ignatieff.  We might see the NDP taking the lead to trash Michael Ignatieff's reputation, hammering home the message directed at left-of-centre voters that the opportunity to turf the Conservatives and put the NDP in charge of key cabinet posts was foiled by the Liberal aristocrat.

No need to mention that it was an unrealistic chance at best to see the coalition in power.

The longer Michael Ignatieff waits, the longer the NDP has to define that view of Michael Ignatieff.  Indeed, the time can only go by because of Liberal support of the Conservatives, which plays into the NDP message.

So Michael Ignatieff can't move quickly because of the sorry state of Liberal Party finances.  But the longer Michael Ignatieff waits, the more damage is inflicted on him and on the Liberal Party from furious New Democrats, enraged that they were "cheated"  of their best (and likely only) chance at real power.

There is one more complication in all this.  And it comes back to the coalition and that letter that Michael Ignatieff stupidly signed.  And this guy is supposed to be a genius?  Imagine that in the fall of 2009, things are looking a lot better for the Liberals.  Funding is betting, polls are decent, and maybe there is some current issue that the Liberals can latch onto.  The Liberals plan a non-confidence vote.  Of course the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois will support it, and at this point, it is a given that there will be an election.  But we still have that darn coalition and that stupid letter.  Jack Layton will publicly demand that the Liberals re-offer a coalition option to the Governor General as part of the deal for support for a non-confidence vote.

Michael Ignatieff will refuse, and the NDP would vote down the government regardless, but the NDP would have that last refusal to trot out in anti-Liberal election advertising.

That coalition millstone will hang around Ignatieff's neck until the next election.  The coalition idea will only truly be history after the next election is fought and finished, with the Liberals and the NDP battling as separate parties.  Which means the longer Michael Ignatieff waits before trying to trigger an election, the longer that coalition idea and his involvement in it will have to corrode at his credibility.

Again, it's all about time.  Michael Ignatieff can't afford to go too quickly, and he can't afford to wait too long.