Angry in the Great White North

If the opposition forces an election over an attempt by the Conservative government to eliminate public subsidies of political parties, then the Liberals are in a leadership bind.

The interim leader is Stephane Dion.  He could lead the party, but on his last attempt this fall, the party fell to 70-odd seats, and the popular vote plummeted.  Several Liberal incumbents won only by a mere smattering of votes.

Stephane Dion has no platform.  His leadership was a one-note song -- The Green Shift.  That tax plan has been utterly repudiated, not just by Canadians voters, but also by fellow senior Liberals in the aftermath of the election.   There is no way the Liberals could run on it again, and there is nothing else for them to run with.  The platform offered during the campaign this fall was chock full of spending programs, the sort that appeal to left-leaning types like Stephane Dion.  How do you sell a program like that in this economic environment?

Vote Liberal so we can tax and spend, and still maintain millions in subsidies just for us.

So the Liberals would face an election with a failed and broken leader already on his way out, and no platform.  Remember, the Liberals have barely started the process of renewing themselves.

The Liberal Party executive could declare an emergency and replace Stephane Dion, but with whom?  Michael Ignatieff?  Bob Rae?  Dominic LeBlanc?  The party would tear itself apart with the appointment of one of the current leadership candidates.  Appoint someone else altogether, and the leadership contenders might scream foul.

Already in massive debt, effectively leaderless, all the baggage from a terrible campaign that ended only weeks ago -- an election could be suicide.

But then if the funding formula changes, the Liberal Party could die.  The party has shown no ability whatsoever in inspiring large number of individuals to donate funds.

The Conservatives, on the other hand...

Hey.

The Conservatives are just eleven seats shy of a majority.  The Conservatives are a financially successful party.  The Conservatives could be in government for years.

How many Liberals might be wondering if the Liberal Party is doomed anyway (either facing complete disintegration or at least years out of power), maybe it's time to think of a change of scenery?

One or two floor crossers wouldn't change the actual outcome of a vote directly (eleven floor crossers is not going to happen) but it would change the dynamic dramatically, undermining the Liberal leadership even further, and making it all the more likely that the Liberals would accept the elimination of the subsidy and pray that the next leader can fix the donation problem.

And even without the drama of floor crossings, I think there will be a lot of pressure from within the Liberal Party to avoid an election over this coming from the leadership camps.  An election could further damage the party, and the potential leadership candidates don't want that.  A miracle could happen, and Stephane Dion could win, and the leadership camps don't want that either.  In any case, if the Liberal Party leadership campaign is terminated prematurely and then rebooted, there is no guarantee that Frank McKenna won't turn down the chance to be leader yet again, and that would likely spell the end of both Ignatieff and Rae.  The leadership campaign as it is right now is what both wanted, and neither will want to chance a reconfiguration of candidates.

Indeed, the leadership candidates are promising Liberals that each knows the secret of inspiring Liberal supporters to donate to the party in the numbers that the Conservatives enjoy.  Well, if that's the case, then eliminating the subsidy shouldn't matter, because in a matter of weeks or months after Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae or Dominic LeBlanc becomes the Liberal Party leader, the cash will start rolling in.

Right?

So why fight an election over money the Liberals won't need in six months anyway?