Angry in the Great White North

CTV is reporting on what could a massive shift in the way politics plays out in this country:

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will slash almost $30 million a year in public funding for federal parties, in a move that would save taxpayers' money but deal a major financial blow to opposition parties, CTV News has learned.

Flaherty will present the measures in his fiscal update at 4 p.m. tomorrow.

"The government intends to run the economy and run the budget in a responsible way," he said Wednesday.

Currently, the major federal parties get $1.95 per vote on an annual basis. In the last election, roughly 14 million eligible voters cast their ballots, which translated to $27 million in taxpayers' money for the parties each year.

Now the other rules remain unchanged.  No donations from corporations or unions.  Donations from individuals are capped at $1100 per year.

For the Conservatives and their massive and efficient donor base, the elimination of subsidies means an elimination of 37% of their budget, but as CTV reports, the other parties exist only because of the subsidies:

In 2007, the party received just 37 per cent of their funding from the public subsidy, according to The Canadian Press. That's far lower than the other parties, including the Liberals:

• Bloc Quebecois: 86 per cent
• Green Party: 65 per cent
• Liberals: 63 per cent
• NDP: 57 per cent

The math is simple.  Every vote received by a party is coming from a potential donor.  If every vote is worth just shy of two bucks under the current scheme, then all a party has to do is get one voter in 500 to donate the maximum of $1100 to make up for the loss. 

Again, the Conservatives are in some ways worse off.  Given the number of donors, it is likely that the party has already maximized donations, and it will be a struggle to make up that 37 per cent cut.  The other parties have room to grow, since it seems that they are not utilizing their potential donor base as fully as possible.

All of this is will be little comfort to the Liberals, the NDP, the Bloc Quebecois, and the Green Party, as they face a massive draw down of funds.

So of course, they'll hate the idea.  But then how do they justify the funding?  The overall problem is that in this economic environment, anything that smacks of privilege will go over badly with Canadians.

But for each party, there are particular problems.  Going in reverse order, here's the way I see it:

• The NDP looking at losing 57% of their funds is the party of the kitchen table.  Working families.  Blah, blah, blah.  Most Canadians would be so-called average Canadians.  So why does the NDP not poll better, or get a better share of funding from donations versus the subsidy?  Answer that question satisfactorily, or Canadians will not be too generous.
• The Liberals stand to lose 63% of their funding.  And yet they polled millions of votes.  Canadians will look at a Liberal demand to keep that funding with jaded cynicism bordering on incredulity.
• The Green Party?  Um, maybe the rule ought to be that you actually have sitting MPs before getting funding.  In any case, the Green Party is going to have to present quite the convincing argument to justify nearly two million in subsidies for a party that loses election after election after election....Anyway, who cares what the Greens think?  No MPs means no votes.
• The Bloc Quebecois will take the cake.  A Quebec separatist party demanding that their anti-Canada agenda continue be funded by Canadians to the tune of 86% of the party's budget.  Right.  The Bloc Quebecois is the poster child when it comes to eliminating the subsidy.

So when this comes up for a confidence vote, these parties are going to be in a jam.  This is about democracy!  Sure, but the Conservatives seem to be able to motivate their base to give.  Why can't you?

Why is our democracy so fragile that it has to propped up with taxpayer money?  The Conservatives say that it isn't fragile at all.  Too bad the other parties gave so little confidence in their supporters.

Just 1 in 500 has to give the $1100 maximum, and each party will have made up the shortfall.

That's all.

Are the opposition parties going to risk a $300 million election against a Conservative party that is flush with cash, fighting to keep $30 million in party subsidies, insisting that Canadian democratic freedom requires coerced taxpayer subsidies?

Good luck with that.

What might happen: The Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois line up against measure.  What choice do they have?  The NDP has a choice though.  It could survive, especially if the Liberals fall apart and the NDP can pick up those supporters.  The short term pain from losing that funding can be offset by gains as the Liberals wither and die.

Oh, and the Green Party would collapse.  That's another NDP pickup.

Here's the real question.  Do the Conservatives already know that the NDP are going to support this measure?

The Irony: When you think about it, a move like this is likely to affect the left of centre parties far more than the Conservatives, which means that there would be a shakeout of those parties, followed by consolidation, and finally, a unified left-of-centre party to challenge the Conservatives.

Maybe this isn't such a great idea after all.  Of course, don't expect any supporters of these parties to see the potential benefit of this.  They'll just be mewling for their money.

Great minds thinking alike:  Looks like several of the commenters on Stephen Taylor's blog are also thinking the NDP could support this.