Angry in the Great White North

During the last leadership campaign, Gerard Kennedy dropped out, and threw his support behind third place candidate Stephane Dion.  On the next ballot, Stephane Dion was able to overtake Bob Rae, who dropped out without endorsing Dion or Michael Ignatieff.   On the final ballot, Stephane Dion beat Michael Ignatieff.

Two years later, the Liberal Party lies in ruins, and Stephane Dion is the interim leader about to be replaced.

What it interesting, though, is that this time around, the leadership race is starting in those final moments:

In: Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, Dominic LeBlanc. Out: David McGuinty, Brian Tobin, John Manley, Denis Coderre, Frank McKenna, Gerard Kennedy, Martha Hall Findlay. Maybe: Ruby Dhalla, Martin Cauchon. [Globe Politics] [Newswatch]

If this configuration holds, then the likely starting point for this leadership campaign will be Michael Ignatieff in the lead, followed by Bob Rae, and then Dominic LeBlanc far behind.

But notice there is no fourth place candidate ready to throw support to the third place candidate as Gerard Kennedy did to Stephane Dion.  That allowed Dion to take out Rae and then Ignatieff in 2006.  I don't see Dominic LeBlanc being able to mount an effective campaign with Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae busily vacuuming up supporters.

In 2006, the rest of the delegates split up among nine other candidates, and they migrated to Stephane Dion as candidates dropped out, and for various reasons did not want to endorse Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae.

By setting the entrance requirements so high, the Liberal Party is making certain that many potential candidates won't run.  So delegates are quickly gravitating to Ignatieff and Rae, and there won't be any Martha Hall Findlays and Gerard Kennedys to funnel the rest to a third candidate.

It's as if the Liberal Party leadership wanted to rerun the final minutes of the last leadership campaign, which was shaping up to be a showdown between Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, but without the wild card of the also-rans coalescing around a third candidate.

If that's the plan, it's working.