Angry in the Great White North

Ruth at Yappa Ding Ding is walking on air.  There is new poll from Nik Nanos, and the Liberals are surging:

Latest Nanos Poll - Tories 35, Grits 34, NDP 17, Bloc 9, Green 6

I don't usually hang on the polls as much as I'm doing this year, but the prospect of a Harper majority is so frightening that I'm doing so this time. And it looks like the big Tory lead on Nanos yesterday was some sort of aberration. Today they're back where they've been the last couple of weeks: only better!

It's looking more possible that we may have the opportunity to form a coalition government, so I hope all the parties on the left are preparing strategies - strategies for how best to do it for the good of the country, not for the political ends of their own party. The leader who emerges with a workable plan is going to look very, very good.

If we have the opportunity to unseat Harper with a coalition, we're all going to have to be flexible about policies. We agree on a lot more than we disagree on. We should also be sure to utilize the best talent from all coalition participants. It could be a great move forward to have NDP and Green members in federal cabinet.

Whether the Tories win the election or the Liberals are able to participate in a coalition government, I hope the Liberal backroom boys are charting a plan for what to do about our leader and how to replace him if that's what's needed. It's not a topic we want to talk about publicly yet, but there may be too little confidence in our leader to keep him on. I say this even though I think he'd make an excellent prime minister - I'm concerned that two years of Tory lies and attacks have simply left him too discredited.

Well, first of all, this isn't the latest poll.  This is the latest poll:

Last night’s tracking showed a noticeable jump in Bloc support in Quebec coinciding with attacks on Stephen Harper’s views and comments related to culture.

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Tories holding strong nationally at 37% support. The Liberals trail 11 points behind at 26%, followed by the NDP at 21%, the Bloc Québécois at 9% and the Green Party at 7 %. The Bloc Québécois has regained ground in Quebec, while the Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied in the province of Ontario. At 39%, Stephen Harper heads Canada’s choice for Prime Minister, followed by Jack Layton at 17%. Stéphane Dion drops to 11%, with Elizabeth May scoring 5% and Gilles Duceppe 3%.

Yeah, that's more like it.

But it is interesting for a couple of reasons.

• Under normal circumstances, most people would see something like this and realize immediately that something was seriously wrong.  A surge like this would blow away any other news.  But instead, a Liberal supporter accepts the numbers, because they run counter to the fearful reality the Liberals are currently facing.
• For this one Liberal, a strong Liberal finish and a relatively weak NDP is an opportunity for a coalition.  I wonder if her eagerness for a coalition would be as strong if the Liberals and the NDP were more evenly matched, and especially if the NDP was coming out ahead of the Liberals.  Indeed, the correct numbers show the Liberals and the NDP closely matched, with the NDP gaining on the Liberals.  A coalition of the left with the Liberals as a junior partner?  Still is a good idea?