Angry in the Great White North

In trying to understand why Canadians seem to turning in large numbers to the Conservative Party, pollsters are asking secondary questions.  One of those questions is on leadership, and Stephen Harper beats every other leader hands down.

Today, another metric was measured.  Which party would make good on its promises:

Canadians see the Conservatives as the party most likely to make good on their campaign promises.

An exclusive Nanos Research-Sun Media poll shows 30.4% of people surveyed think the Tories will honour their commitments -- more than double the 14.5% who think the Liberals will deliver and 14.1% who put their trust in the NDP.

Pollster Nik Nanos said the data shows Conservatives have twice the credibility of the other parties when it comes to making promises -- likely winning more trust because they're the party most recently in office.

"Part of it has to do with the natural advantage the Conservatives have because they are the incumbent government," he said. "Generally, unless incumbent governments really mess up, they do relatively well on this because there's a track record for people to evaluate."

Incumbency does play a big part in this.  It certainly explains the low score for the NDP, given they have no track record whatsoever.  But in the analysis, Nik Nanos fails to mention the one obvious reason the Conservatives score so well here.

They have been able to keep their promises, or at least a the vast majority of them.  Period.  Nothing beats an actual track record of promises made and promises kept.

And when you look at the reason the Conservatives have been able to keep their promises, there is no way to avoid thinking of a different track record.  That one is the Stephane Dion's track record of running for every opportunity to fight an election.  Hey, I could look for quotes on the number of abstentions and such, but let's watch Rick Mercer's video instead:

Each time the Liberals abstained, the Conservatives were able to keep a promise -- either a specific one, or just the general promise to move the country in a certain direction.

That recognition of parliamentary success cuts across all political lines.  It takes partisanship so deep that it borders on delusional to argue that the Conservatives have not succeeded in getting the job done.

As we all know as well, Stephane Dion did not get the job done when he had the chance:

Every time Stephen Harper added to his reputation as a leader who got things done, and managing to do it in a numerically weak minority government, Stephane Dion simultaneously added to his reputation as a person for whom leadership consists of making excuses and avoiding personal risks.

Indeed this election was not triggered by Stephane Dion.  Even after posturing during the summer that a fall election was in the cards (Dion's bravery fueled by some slight movement in the polls), the moment Stephen Harper took the initiative to call that election, Stephane Dion ran away -- again -- switching gears and arguing against an election (presumably scared off by polls that showed the slight uptick the Liberals enjoyed had evapourated).

Arguing against an election?  Pleading more like.

Canadians know that Stephen Harper will find a way to make things happen because he's spent the last two years proving that he can.  In part, the Liberals help prove that by repeatedly rolling over.

The Liberals might see this as inevitable.  An election fought eighteen months ago might not have seen the Liberals in any better position in the polls.  But then eighteen months ago, Stephen Harper would have had fewer accomplishments under his belt.  Liberals have to realize that, collectively, they've played a key role in how these numbers are playing out.  The NDP, on the other hand, can point out that whatever success Stephen Harper is not because of the NDP, who consistently voted against the government in confidence votes.

Liberal voters have to realize that under Stephane Dion, their party did everything possible to take Stephen Harper's inherent credibility and turn it into a strong track record.  After the upteenth abstention, people warned Stephane Dion that his credibility would suffer in any upcoming election.  Clearly it has, but even worse for the Liberals, Stephen Harper's credibility has gone way up.

The Liberals could switch leaders, and that would go a long way to solving Liberal credibility issues, as much of the blame could be attached to Stephane Dion personally.

But removing Stephane Dion can only undo some of the damage the Liberals have done to themselves.  It won't have any effect on the benefits accrued by Stephen Harper.  Only Stephen Harper can squander the credibility he has built up, and there are no signs that this is going to happen given the reasonable and prudent election promises made by the Conservatives.

And should the Conservatives win a minority mandate in this election, and the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois essentially step out of parliament for six months or more as those two parties go into leadership campaigns (assuming Stephane Dion resigns or is forced out, and assuming Gilles Duceppe resigns as is widely expected), then Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will use that time to pass legislation to implement those promises and build up even more credibility.

Stephane Dion will go down in history as a notable leader.  His time as Liberal Party leader is going to leave an indelible mark on Canadian politics.  His decisions as leader are going to be remembered as having far-reaching implications that will long outlast his time as leader.

For most leaders, this is a good thing.

Unfortunately for Stephane Dion, there is nothing good about this, since the signs are pointing to a leadership legacy that benefits only the Conservatives.

The future is lookin' Tory blue.

Well, maybe.  Maybe not.  The future is impossible to predict.  But the past is a matter of record.  And Stephane Dion's past record as leader has played a major role in Stephen Harper's success so far.

Just giving credit where credit is due.  Sorry, Jack Layton, but in all honesty, I can't thank you for any of this.  You've been no help at all.