Angry in the Great White North

Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion has a big problem.  If his Liberals were merely down in the polls, that would be bad enough.  But all the recent polling suggests that the Liberals are dropping in the polls:

A new poll suggests Liberal Leader Stephane Dion is having trouble gaining political traction, even with voters traditionally drawn to the Grit brand, and is bleeding support on all sides.

The polling suggests that, among urban women, the Conservatives held the lead with 30 per cent to 25 for the Liberals, 21 for the NDP and 12 for the Greens.

Among women aged 18-34, the Conservatives with 28 per cent and the Liberals with 27 were virtually tied, while the NDP took 21 per cent and the Greens 14.

The Tories had the edge among women aged 35-49 with 34 per cent, compared with 22 for the Liberals, 20 for the NDP and 10 for the Greens.

"The Liberals seem to be losing the battle for the centre to the Conservatives, the battle on the left to the NDP, and they're losing the battle for the environmental vote to the Green party," said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

And what about that carbon tax thing?  That Green Shift that was going to pull so-called progressive Canadians to the Liberal Party?

When asked which federal party "best reflects" their views on the environment, the Greens came out tops, with 31% of respondents across Canada choosing the eco-party. But what divides the next two parties is a margin of 0.6 per cent, with the Liberals scoring 17.6% and the Tories 17%.

"It's not surprising that the Green Party had the best policy and equity on the environment," Nanos said. "But what struck me was the fact that the Tories and the Grits were statistically tied. The Liberals don't have a really big advantage on the issue."

So all the Liberal eggs are in the Green Shift basket, and the Liberals appear to be tanking.  Can Liberals wait until after an election to take action?

As one veteran of Liberal wars puts it: "Are a lot of us in the party hoping we will wake up tomorrow morning and find Mr. Dion has left and taken the whole Green Shift thing with him? Absolutely.

"Is there a way to make that happen? No."

The long-time Liberal stalwart thinks for a moment and adds: "If it looks as though we are going to be incinerated at the polls, you never know what people will do to try to save the furniture."

But really, what sort of threat does some discontented Liberal candidate in Alberta pose to Stephane Dion?

As long as fortress Toronto is strong, where the most powerful Liberal MPs have seats, then Stephane Dion will be allowed to play out the election, right?

Here is the seat projection map from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy for the Toronto area:

Very red.  But not entirely red.  I've highlighted one of the few Liberal ridings that is being tracked as merely "leaning Liberal".

That one is Etobicoke-Lakeshore, the riding currently held by Michael Ignatieff.

I know.  It's hard to believe.  I mean, Michael Ignatieff is one of those Liberal shoo-ins, right?

Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae are the two obvious choices to replace Stephane Dion should the Liberals lose this election and Stephane Dion is forced out.

If the race for Etobicoke-Lakeshore turns out to be a nail biter (and the Conservatives are making a strong run against former Harvard professor and author Michael Ignatieff by running Patrick Boyer, a former MP, a university professor, and an author), Michael Ignatieff's leadership hopes could be seriously damaged.  If Ignatieff loses, there will be no hope at all.

So if Michael Ignatieff sees his riding turning Tory blue, he might be tempted to take out Stephane Dion ahead of an election.  Bob Rae, safe in Toronto Centre, would probably prefer the election to play out under those circumstances.  But Ignatieff's supporters have always been in the Quebec ranks of the Liberal Party, and there is no affection for Stephane Dion in that part of the country.

If Greg Weston is right, and there are hints of a preemptive move against Stephane Dion, I wonder if it will be Michael Ignatieff leading disaffected Quebec Liberals.

It's not likely to happen, but it's fun to speculate.