Angry in the Great White North

Liberal MP Garth Turner has always been a Stephane Dion loyalist.

Well, he has been for as long as the Liberals were useful to him.  Now that Stephane Dion runs the risk of leading the Liberals to an election loss (no certain thing, in my mind, by the way), Garth Turner's confidence seems to be crumbling:

I’ve knocked on a hell of a lot of doors in the past while, expecting a slew of questions on the Green Shift, the global economic meltdown, food safety, Stephane Dion, child care or gas prices. And while there have been a few, no barrage. There’s only one topic that comes up with consistency - Stephen Harper, and my relationship with him.

I’ve arrived at the conclusion this election will actually not be about the economy of [ed., "or"] the environment. Instead, it will be about Harper. A referendum on the guy. The question will be, do you want more or less of him?

Nationally, this means a majority or not. The answer two weeks ago before people really thought about it was, maybe. The answer today is, no. This may change again two weeks from now, but I doubt it. This election campaign is the first chance most people have had in almost three years to really stare hard at Harper, and that scrutiny is moving the polls.

OK, let's congratulate Garth Turner for his candor.  Do it quickly before someone in Stephane Dion's election team comes down with a hammer and tells Garth Turner to take this post down.

Now let's break this down.  If the question in this election is really leadership, then "nationally" this means a win for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, or so says Garth Turner.

Garth Turner starts off "nationally" because the rest of the post is about how locally, things will be different.  OK, the election is about leadership.  Given Garth Turner's unwavering loyalty to Stephane Dion, that would mean that Garth Turner is out of a job, right?  I mean, if I lived in Halton, and wanted to cast my vote for Stephen Harper and against Stephane Dion, then I would have to vote for Lisa Raitt and against Garth Turner.

Not so fast.  Garth Turner says that nationally, this election will have one of two outcomes -- a Stephen Harper majority or a Stephen Harper minority.  But locally in Halton, this is about who will stand up for the riding:

As a result, my opponent was appointed, and answers only to her political boss. On the other hand, I tend to irritate the bosses, and answer to the people. I’m preoccupied with fighting for the middle class, while she’s preoccupied with becoming a cabinet minister. I’m a writer and a small business guy who’s been sued, audited and scared. She’s a Bay Street lawyer and a career civil servant. I represent trouble. She represents Harper.

I think she – and I’ve never met this person – also represents what we need to fix in this country. A prime minister should never be allowed to reach into a constituency and override the wishes of the people, just as he should never betray a promise to them. Political parties should never think they are stronger, wiser or more powerful than the people everywhere who comprise them. A leader should know better than to try and govern without a team. A candidate should know better than stand before a community, without support.

This is arrogance. Elitist.

So the question in Halton, I’d say, is who will fight for you in these extraordinary times? Who will be there to stand up for you, after this election?

Fascinating.  In all of that heart-felt pitch for votes, there is not a single issue mentioned.  Not the environment.  Not the economy.  Nor is there mention of the Liberal Party or Stephane Dion.  It's all about Garth Turner standing alone against Stephen Harper and the next Conservative government, versus Lisa Raitt, appointed by the party establishment.

I can't emphasize this enough.  Read it carefully.  In fact, read the entire post.  I defy you to find a spot where he clearly enunciates that he is part of Stephane Dion's team and a member of the Liberal Party.

He avoids saying that like the plague.

It's all about him as a maverick who defies the establishment and who represents Halton regardless of who is in power.

Not only is Garth Turner conceding the election, he has given up on trying to win by telling people he is a Liberal and one of Stephane Dion's most loyal MPs. 

In fact, he goes out of his way to cast his value to the constituents as being something that is entirely independent of Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party.

Garth Turner might have come to the conclusion that being a Liberal is a liability, even in Halton.

Is Garth Turner preparing a lifeboat to abandon the Liberal Party ship, which he thinks is sinking, and its captain, Stephane Dion?  Is he plotting a strategy on how to win his riding, a strategy built around running as a de facto independent? 

A more interesting question is whether this is Garth Turner's decision.  I mean, you could read this post a different way.  With all the trouble Garth Turner has had this week, it is entirely possible that the Liberal Party leadership wants some changes to happen in Halton.  If that's true, Garth Turner might be preemptively trying to position himself as the outside and the independent that is still the best choice for Halton, even as the Liberal Party tosses him off the ship (sinking or otherwise).

OK, we won't know.  We can't be sure how long this post will stay up on Garth Turner's blog.  For a Liberal candidate to publish a statement that says Stephen Harper will win this election on the strength of his leadership is remarkable, and also unforgivable.  Here is a screenshot, just in case it goes away:

Will this be newsworthy?  It should be.  It represents a crucial failure in Liberal Party loyalty.  Other candidates ought to be asked what their experience has been, knocking on doors in their ridings.  Other candidates ought to be asked if they plan to distance themselves from the Liberal Party and from Stephane Dion the way Garth Turner seems to be doing.

Frankly, this post ought to be a distracting irritant for the Liberal Party.

Not that Garth Turner seems to care so much about the Liberal Party any more.  He just likes being an MP.

My theory: I think the Liberal Party is pulling away from Garth Turner.  I think help from the centre has dried up and that Garth Turner is on his own.  I think the Liberal leadership has decided they'd rather concede Halton to the Conservatives than have Garth Turner back.  The party doesn't want to cancel his candidacy outright because of the bad optics, but his candidacy is being strangled, nevertheless.

His post is pure spin, since he knows it is unlikely anyone in the Liberal Party will publicly acknowledge that they want to deep-six one of their own candidates, especially one that has spoken so much about his loyalty and devotion to Stephane Dion.  So he makes it sound like he's dumping the Liberal Party, and not the other way around.

I have nothing to back this up.  It's only a theory.

Garth Turner denies conceding: From Garth Turner's post:

I’ve arrived at the conclusion this election will actually not be about the economy of [ed.,  "or"] the environment. Instead, it will be about Harper. A referendum on the guy. The question will be, do you want more or less of him?

Nationally, this means a majority or not.

In response to the question "Did you just concede the election to either a minority or majority [Conservative]government?" post by "SJ" (not me, by the way) in the comments section:

Of course not. There is no such reference. — Garth

Well, it sure sorta sounds like it, kinda, don't it?