Angry in the Great White North

From CPAC-Nanos, by email, a very interesting polling result:

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives are still holding strong nationally at 38%, followed by the Liberals at 31%, the NDP at 17%, and the Green Party and the Bloc Québecois tied at 7%.  On the CPAC-exclusive leadership index scorecard evaluating trust, competence and national vision, Stephen Harper leads with 108 points, followed by Jack Layton at 51 points, Stéphane Dion who has dropped to 32 points, Elizabeth May at 14 points and Gilles Duceppe at 13.  Stephane Dion’s one-day drop (from 48 to 32 points) coincided with Bob Rae’s intervention in the campaign yesterday attacking the Conservatives and the NDP.  Even factoring the personal Dion drop, there was no impact on support for the Liberals.

That's a staggering drop for Stephane Dion, well outside of the jitter you'd expect from day to day.

Too bad the poll doesn't ask about Bob Rae's leadership numbers.

Notice that the poll shows that Liberal polling numbers don't move.  I'm going to go out on a limb here, and suggest that the huge one-day drop in Stephane Dion's numbers happened mostly among Liberals.  They'll still vote Liberal, but now that Stephane Dion is sharing the stage with Bob Rae, these Liberals are reacting dramatically to the possibility, perhaps fast approaching, that they will be called on to choose a new Liberal leader.

In other words, these Liberals don't care that Stephane Dion is part of a bigger team, which is what Stephane Dion and his people were trying to portray.  When these Liberals realize who else is on the team, they want Stephane Dion off.  Gone.  Goodbye.  He's dragging everyone else down.  Go home.

Now the question for Stephane Dion is how long is he willing to share the stage with Bob Rae.  And how long will Michael Ignatieff wait before he demands to be on stage too, since it would seem that Bob Rae is solidifying his position in a post-Dion Liberal Party.

If I'm right, and the big drop in Stephane Dion's leadership index score is currently happening mostly inside Liberal circles, I would guess that the effect will leak out to the general voting population, as the video of Bob Rae and Stephane Dion standing side by side is more widely seen.  When that happens, are overall Liberal polling numbers going to follow?