Angry in the Great White North

The principle behind the election result reporting blackout rules is that knowledge of voting results in one area of the country can influence voting elsewhere:

The court wrote that the ban is a "reasonable limit" on the Charter because it maintains "informational equality" among voters and contributes to "the fairness and reputation of the electoral system as a whole."

"The … ban is only operative for a matter of two to three hours, only on election day, and it is only the late voters who will be affected," wrote the court.

"While the ban may be inconvenient for the media, this argument cannot be allowed to override as important a goal as the protection of Canada’s electoral democracy."

So on voting night, I can't tell people in Alberta what the results were in Ontario because that knowledge can alter the results in Alberta.   That blackout is in place until the polls close in Alberta.

It makes a certain sense.  I'm not saying I necessarily agree with it, and some evidence in the US suggests that people's voting patterns aren't affected with that sort of foreknowledge, but the argument makes a certain sense.

So what about this vote swapping idea?

Canada's electoral watchdog is investigating the legality of an online vote-swapping scheme.

Marc Mayrand, the chief electoral officer, said Friday that Elections Canada is looking into a Facebook group aimed at preventing Stephen Harper's Conservatives from winning a majority on Oct. 14.

The scheme may be nothing more than "organized strategic voting," Mayrand said in an interview.

But it may also fall afoul of the law, which prohibits people from selling their votes or accepting an incentive or material benefit for voting.

"Right now, we have very little information," Mayrand said.

"We need to look at it more closely to see whether there are any potential offences."

On Wednesday, Mat Savelli of Hamilton, Ont. created the "Anti-Harper Vote Swap Canada" group on Facebook.

The website lists 41 ridings, such as Ontario's Parry Sound-Muskoka, that will likely be tight races. It encourages members to swap votes in order to stop the Tories from winning those contests.

For instance, a person in Parry Sound might want to vote for the Green party but feel compelled to cast a ballot for the Liberals strictly to stop Health Minister Tony Clement, who won by only 28 votes last time, from winning re-election.

The person could use Savelli's site to find a Liberal in another riding where it would be safe to vote Green without fear of electing a Tory. The two would then agree to swap votes.

Though I appreciate that Marc Mayrand is looking into this, I wonder if he's on the wrong track.  It seems clear, at first glance, that no one is buying a vote as such.  Maybe the argument that this is vote buying can be made, but I'm not sure how.

But it certainly looks like a form of blackout violation.  If I have perfect knowledge of a vote elsewhere in the country, I can use that knowledge to alter my vote.  That is what the blackout rules are meant to prevent.

How is this different?

Yes, it is happening ahead of the election and it is happening one vote at a time, but it still boils down to sending information about votes as cast in order to influence a vote cast elsewhere.

I suppose the counter-argument is that the vote hasn't actually been cast, but then that counter-argument only helps if you presume that one of the swappers cheats and votes in a manner that goes against the swap agreement.  So the counter-argument is based on the presumption that vote swapping doesn't work.  Hardly the argument the vote swappers would want to pursue too vigorously.

Of course, no one can prevent you from privately discussing you voting plans.  But then nothing prevents me from calling my cousin in Edmonton and telling him what I'm seeing on the news on voting night.  It is when that leakage of information becomes significant and organized, like a news broadcast, that Elections Canada becomes concerned.

Well, the Facebook vote swapping site certainly seems organized.  And given that it specifically targets ridings that have had razor thin margins in the last election that leakage of voting information could have real impact.

So I have to think that if Elections Canada is standing firm on the blackout rules, then logically, Elections Canada is going to have some serious problems with vote swapping.