Angry in the Great White North

Thanks to former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien, politics in Canada is publicly funded, at least partially.  Every party that runs federally and meets certain minimum requirements (in terms of votes received) is eligible for a quarterly allowance.  That allowance is about $1.75 per vote cast for that party in the previous general election.  Parties are also expected to raise money through donations, limited to a maximum of $1000 per donor per year.

Elections Canada publishes the quarterly allowances disbursed.  Here is the most recent chart showing the disbursements in 2008.  Click on it to enlarge it.

The next installment would be paid in October, putting another $2 million in the Liberal Party bank account (as well a slightly greater amount to the Conservative Party).  But the Liberals depend on that money from Elections Canada, unlike the Conservatives.  The Liberals are surviving almost exclusively on that public allowance:

The Liberals don't appear to have adapted to the new age of fundraising, which means more contributors donating smaller amounts of money and no corporate donations. Currently their 2008 allowance is $2.4-million ahead of the funds they have raised.

Liberal fundraising has been a disaster since Stephane Dion became leader.

Is it no wonder that the Liberals are talking about contingency plans for a September election?

Liberals expect a federal vote call by the end of next week and the party's top election planner says they're almost ready for a campaign that has come earlier than they anticipated.

"We're reasonably ready to go," Senator David Smith said in an interview. "In other words, are we going to rise to the occasion and be able to do it? Yes. You always have contingency plans vis-à-vis planes, vis-à-vis buses, vis-à-vis who's going to man the various desks in the campaign ... but I would say we're in quite a good position to run a good campaign."

A Liberal, speaking to the Star on background, said the first two weeks of leader Stéphane Dion's five-week campaign script are mapped out and that the party is logistically prepared to "mount a competent effort."

The Liberals were clearly planning on using this $2 million to fund a fairly large portion of their campaign.  The previous installment has probably been spent.

Keep that in mind when you hear Liberals complaining that we ought to wait before having an election.  It has nothing to do with the by-elections already in progress.  It has nothing to do with having parliament sit first. 

It's about getting money from the voters through Elections Canada.  Without it, the Liberals are crossing their fingers, hoping to be "reasonably ready" to make a "competent effort" at running a "good campaign".  It has been noted that this description hardly inspires confidence.

This was not the Liberal plan:

Smith admitted the timing of the election has surprised his party, which was gearing up to possibly defeat the minority Conservative government over a specific issue this fall in the House of Commons.

Which issue would trigger the election?  The first one after the Elections Canada cheque arrived, I'll bet.

It explains why Stephane Dion could never seem to able to coherently explain his criteria for picking a time to force an election.  He had his platform of a carbon tax, and the polls haven't moved in two years:

Liberal leader Stephane Dion said on Tuesday he was considering forcing an election, which would end the minority Conservative government, but timing was important.

"I'm considering different possibilities, and one of them is certainly to stop (having) strategic voting when we disagree with this government, and then to trigger an election is something we may do," Dion told a news conference.

He said more Canadians wanted an election than before, but added it was not his job to force an election just because Prime Minister Stephen Harper wanted him to do so: "My job is to replace him, and timing is important."

Timing is important for a party that lives off the public purse.  But you'd never want to actually say that out loud.

This is Canada's Official Opposition, opposing only when the pogey cheque comes in.  It seems to me that Stephen Harper is right.  Canada deserves a real, functioning opposition.

Remember how desperate the Liberals were to push the election out just a few weeks?

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion believes Prime Minister Stephen Harper could be dissuaded from calling a federal election in the next few weeks.

It makes sense now.  Just a few more weeks.  Then the Liberal Party would get the allowance cheque, and immediately after an important issue would be discovered that would trigger an election.

Hey, the important issues have been there the whole time.  The budget.  The crime bill.  The changes to immigration.  The carbon tax.  Afghanistan.

Why should Canadians have to wait because the Liberals picked a leader that repels donations?  Frankly, if my tax dollars have to go to a Liberal Party allowance, I would rather get my money's worth.

This Liberal Party under Stephane Dion is worth neither the money nor the wait.

Important Bit of Inside Information: You know those big loans that the Liberals will use to fund an election?  From someone in the know (but not in the Conservative Party), sent to me by email:

In the last two campaigns, we couldn't access our big bank loan until the writ was dropped.  So I expect the Liberals will have enough money to spend in the writ period but may be scrambling now.  A lot of things have to be paid for in the immediate pre-writ period, and suppliers don't like extending credit to political parties.

So that would mean the Liberals will spend the first days of a campaign just getting set up, while the Conservatives the NDP hit the ground running.  Unless the Liberals can hold off an election start until after the party gets the allowance cheque.

That's what the Liberals had planned.

Funny how "money politics" used to mean political influence wielded by the wealthy.  In Canada, it means a broke party holding up normal democratic processes as it scrambles for bits of cash here and there.

Great Minds Think Alike: Calgary Junkie connected the dots on Saturday, commenting on Paul Wells' Maclean's blog, Inkless Wells:

Anyway, let’s see how it plays out. Harper surely has made the calculation that the upsides outweigh the downsides. Another consideration–the quarterly payment to political parties for their $1.75 per vote is due Sep 30th. Does that get cancelled if the writ is dropped before then?

But the money doesn't arrive until October.  And so we've been watching as the Liberals desperately try to fine tune the timing of an election, without admitting why.