Super-secret Liberal Party deliberations have been held.  Here are the details:

Ranking members of the Liberal caucus this week repeatedly pushed Stephane Dion to trigger a federal election campaign next week, but the Liberal Leader rebuffed their pleas, sources say.

With the scandal over former foreign affairs minister Maxime Bernier setting the Conservatives on the defensive and concerns about an economic downturn, a heavyweight group of the party's most influential MPs argued in internal meetings this week that the Liberals have a window of opportunity for an election.

They included foreign affairs critic Bob Rae, Deputy Leader Michael Ignatieff, House Leader Ralph Goodale, Whip Karen Redman, finance critic John McCallum, and justice critic Dominic LeBlanc, according to multiple Liberal sources.

Multiple Liberal sources?  Remember how in the old days, we had to depend on Garth Turner's blog to learn what was going on behind closed doors at caucus meetings? Ah, good times...

Anyway, what is this window of opportunity?  If you think the Liberals think that they a much closer to win over the Conservatives, you'd be wrong:

As the summer begins to heat up, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that Prime Minister Harper’s Tories, at 36% support (unchanged), are staying cool with a six-point lead over Stephan Dion’s Grits, who have 30% support (up 1 point). Jack Layton and the NDP are receiving support from 15% (up 1 point) of decided voters nation-wide, while support for Elizabeth May’s Green Party is down 2 points to 9% overall. Seven percent (7%) of voters remain undecided.

In other words, nothing is different now, poll-wise, than had been revealed by nearly every other poll taken in the last six months.  Indeed, the Conservative lead seem rather resilient in the face of these recent headaches.

So what is different now?  Something has changed:

The tables have turned since last October, when MPs and staffers talked Mr. Dion out of his desire to bring down Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government; this time, it was the party leader who rejected the idea.

So yet again, Stephane Dion is at odds with his party.  Still, he did want to fight an election.  Surely it can't be too hard to pull him back over to his previous position:

MPs and advisers close to Mr. Dion, Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Rae and others not aligned with former leadership contenders told The Globe and Mail that despite several entreaties – and perhaps more to come – the Liberal Leader has been adamant. “It's dead, dead, dead,” said one.

Yikes.  Dead times three.  That's trumps a double-dog-dare-you thrown at Stephane Dion by Michael Ignatieff.

What's going on here?  Are the polls wrong?  Are the Liberals pulling ahead?

No, they aren't.  Internal polls support the Ipsos Reid conclusion.  (Trust me on that one.)

So why is Stephane Dion dead set (indeed dead-dead-dead set) against an election now?

Mr. Dion explained that he wanted to spend the summer selling the Liberals green-tax plan, which includes tax levies on carbon fuels designed to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. “Stephane dismissed it immediately,” a source said.

And at a stroke, we know why the other Liberal want an election.

For exactly the same reason Stephane Dion doesn't want one.

Today, at the Petro Canada on the 401 near Cambridge, Ontario, I put gas in the car at the cost of $1.34 a liter.

Stephane Dion wants to a chance to explain to me why I should be paying $1.75.  No wait, gas is not going to be taxed.  So I'll be paying $1.34 (or maybe $1.40, or more), but everything else will go up in price as a result of a broadly applied carbon tax.  Still sounds pretty bad to me.

Stephane Dion won't have that chance to convince me during an election called now.  At best, the explanation will be rushed.  At worst, the Liberal carbon tax plan isn't ready, and no substantive explanation is forthcoming.

If there are no details, just a promise to bring in a vaguely defined tax, I bet the Conservatives will be yelling "Hidden agenda!" at every opportunity, and loving every minute.

So Stephane Dion can't fight an election now.  He isn't ready.  He might lose.  He'd be out of a job.

Ka-ching!

And every Liberal who is not Stephane Dion wants an election now.  Why now?  Lose now, or lose in the fall -- what's the difference?  The difference is that in the fall, the carbon tax will have been put out there for all to see, and every Liberal will have to take a share of the responsibility.  How many Liberals will fall as a result?

Have the Tories had a bad week or so?  Yeah, of course.  Will they lose an election.  They might, but it won't be because of the Maxime Bernier thing or the In-and-Out nonsense.  It'll be because the polls show that the Tory lead is significant but not comfortable.  Anything can happen during an election.  But even if the Conservatives win, the recent troubles might help some Liberals in tight ridings cling to their seats.  In the fall, these issues will have faded away and been forgotten.  A stronger, rested, rejuvenated Conservative Party will be a more formidable foe, while the Liberals will be the tax-tax-tax party.  A lot more Liberal MPs could find themselves out of a job.

I think many Liberals see a window of opportunity here: an opportunity to lose an election while minimizing the damage, and in the process getting rid of Stephane Dion and his ridiculous tax.

I think Stephane Dion sees this too, and so he's in no rush to jump through this window.

But Stephane Dion might find himself pushed out:

Question: Why this sudden enthusiasm for a summer election? (Couillard? Yeah, right.) And why are we hearing about this, with virtually every single major player in caucus mentioned, by name? This has the whiff of mutiny to it…

The fact that Karen Redman is on board with this election push has to have Dion's people worried.  If the party whip makes it clear to MPs that there will be no repercussions if they join the plotters and vote down a confidence measure next week, even if their numbers are insufficient to trigger an election, then things could get very dicey for Stephane Dion. 

Open revolt.