Angry in the Great White North

Garth Turner gives an interview that literally made my jaw drop.   No kidding.

It starts off innocently enough:

Garth Turner, MP for the Ontario riding of Halton and communications adviser to Stephane Dion, says his leader will soon unveil plans for a series of tax reductions, especially on the personal income tax side, that would offset a new carbon levy.

In Vancouver this week to speak at party fundraisers, Turner says Liberals are gearing up for a likely fall election.

It is interesting that Garth Turner has given himself a promotion.  The last I heard was that Garth Turner was Special Advisor for Riding and Community Outreach, described as a "fundraising role".  It seemed to be focused on Garth Turner talking to potential donors ("build on the success of [Garth Turner's] summer tour") and not about helping Stephane Dion frame his message to the media, which is what I've always understood to be the role of a "communications advisor".

But then maybe Garth Turner's role has changed, or maybe my definition of a "communications advisor" is too restrictive.

But if Garth Turner's job is to talk to the media, then the new Liberal message is certainly not like the old Liberal message.

On the timing of the next election, the old message used to be that Stephane Dion was biding his time to pick the most advantageous moment for the Liberals to go to the voters.  The message was that Liberals would be polling better if they just waited.

The new message?  Stephane Dion is in a corner, and if he doesn't go soon, he'll never win:

With Harper eager to snare a second term and Dion keen to test drive his activist environmental policies, a vote in late October or early November is a good bet, posits Turner.

Harder to predict is the outcome, given Harper's lagging personal appeal and Dion's even worse standing. But "Dion is reaching the point where he's going to lose more altitude if he doesn't take the bait" and vote against the government, according to Turner.

So Stephane Dion has to take the bait?  Does that sound like a guy who is in control?  Being baited?  And things are just going to get worse if Dion doesn't force an election soon?

The old message was that the Liberals were united.  The leadership battles are in the past. 

The new message?  Dark forces lurk in the shadows, attempting to overthrow Stephane Dion:

Dion won the leadership after a year-long campaign involving 11 aspirants, recalls Turner. He says the fierce competition left its mark.

"I support the leader, but not everyone is of the same mind and there are factions within caucus who want to weaken Dion. There are people who have aspirations . . . without a doubt, who forever and a day will continue to try to promote their agendas.

"I have a problem with those who still harbour ambitions and should swallow them. I see that happening within our caucus and I don't like it."

Forever and a day?  Sounds like these are people who can never be trusted.  Way to heal wounds, eh?

The old message was that Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff are team players.

The new message?  Rae and Ignatieff themselves, and not just their supporters, are actively engaged in undermining Stephane Dion. 

Turner says he doesn't want to undermine any of his colleagues and prefers not to identify individuals. That said, it was clear from our conversation that he is referring to Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae who came second and third in the leadership stakes.

Wow!

Remember how I said that recent events made it likely that Garth Turner would become a risk to the Liberal Party?

If Garth Turner realizes he longer enjoys the protection of caucus confidentiality, then why would be treat what he hears as confidential himself?  Getting burned this way by a fellow caucus member is a surefire way to turn Garth Turner into a potential liability.

Guess I nailed it.  Garth Turner admits that he is being targeted:

Turner, who has a long history of speaking candidly -- going back to his days in the Mulroney caucus -- reveals he's "in a bit of trouble right now" with some of his colleagues.

"I'm seen as a guy who is standing out there for Dion, helping the leader succeed." Those who Turner has targeted for their disloyalty have reacted by drawing their own swords against him.

Garth Turner the martyr standing against powerhouse MPs like Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff.  Nice.

Still, I wonder just how telling the media that Stephane Dion is surrounded by enemies, that Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff are trying to take over the party, and that Stephane Dion has no choice but to force an election or risk becoming so unpopular that a win would be impossible, is supposed to help the leader succeed.

Addendum: All kidding aside about old-message-new-message, I think this story deserves attention.  As I predicted, publicly embarrassing Garth Turner by relating his performance in the recent slide show in caucus has prompted Garth Turner to publicly bite back.  Here are the questions that are preoccupying me now:

• Is this an unintended consequence or was this part of the plan to manipulate Garth Turner into publicly attacking elements in the Liberal Party?  Personally, I think it was part of a plan.
• Why would Garth Turner fall for such an obvious trap?  Heck, I could see it coming, and I'm no politician.
• Why would Garth Turner attack Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff?  Are they easy targets, or are they really going after Garth Turner?
• What will Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff do?  A Liberal MP has publicly accused them of pursuing their leadership aspirations and undermining Stephane Dion.
• What will Stephane Dion do?  A Liberal MP has publicly said that Dion has no choice but to call an election or risk "los[ing] more altitude if he doesn't take the bait".  Not the description of a leader in control of the situation, but of one being pushed around by his opponents and a victim of circumstances.
• What will the media do?  If reporters start asking Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff for their response, you can be sure they'll go back to Stephane Dion and demand that something be done immediately.