Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion is telegraphing his intention not to force an election before the summer break:

Canadians probably need not worry about a spring election, since Liberal Leader Stephane Dion is reportedly urging MPs to spend the summer talking up policy proposals he intends to roll out in the weeks ahead.

Dion is said to have told his MPs at yesterday's caucus meeting that with the economy deteriorating and Conservatives' fortunes waning in the polls, the summer will present an opportunity for Liberals to put their own vision on the table.

This comes a day after Dion, talking to reporters in Quebec, said that now didn't seem to be the time to bring down Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government.

Things must be pretty bad for the Liberals.  Immigrant groups have already made it clear that they've had enough of Stephane Dion's policy of abstentions, and that if the immigration bill goes through next week, there will be a price to pay:

Yesterday a deputation of around a dozen ethnic and human rights organizations visited the constituency office of Liberal MP Bob Rae in Toronto. Under the banner, "If you don't vote, we won't vote", the groups demanded the Liberals take a stand against Conservative immigration legislation when it returns to the House next month. "If the Liberals don't vote against these immigration amendments, the immigrant communities will vote against them at the next election," said Sima Sahar Zerehi, the communications coordinator for the Status Now Campaign.

But the polls in Quebec paint a bleak picture:

If an election were held this spring, the Conservative caucus could find itself with a lot more Quebec MPs.

For Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, the news is bleak.

Not only does the NDP continue its inexorable rise in Quebec, it is now more popular than the Liberals among francophones. While the Liberals continue to be the most popular with non-francophones and on the island of Montreal, they are so low in Quebec City and in the regions that many candidates could be lucky to get the 10 per cent you need to get election expenses reimbursed. With Stephen Harper and Jack Layton (two anglophones) more popular among francophone Quebecers than their native son and the party at 13 per cent among francophones, don't be surprised to see another bout of turmoil in the party's Quebec wing.

So it looks like the Quebec numbers have Stephane Dion more worried than the possibility of losing the immigrant vote.

But I think Stephane Dion ought to be more worried about his caucus.

Ontario MPs in ridings with large numbers of immigrants will be asked to abstain from voting against the immigration bill that the Liberals are calling anti-immigrant.  How many Ontario MPs will want to put their jobs on the line in the hope that maybe the Quebec wing of the party will get its act together?

And all MPs and riding staff and volunteers will have to face this reality.  Even with the images of RCMP officers trudging through Conservative Party headquarters on their hunt for in-and-out funding documentation, and all the bad press that has earned the Conservatives, the decision will be made to let that pass.

For the next few months, the memory will be allowed to fade away.  Worse yet, the possibility exists that the Tories can turn this around and win this case, the opportunity will have been squandered.

But it actually gets worse:

Dion insisted to reporters yesterday he hasn't declared anything yet on whether Liberals would provoke a spring election. But MPs who are eager to go to the polls interpreted Dion's talk to caucus yesterday as the strongest sign yet that they're not going to precipitate Parliament's collapse until at least the fall.

One of the policies being considered by the Liberals is said to revolve around carbon "tax shifting" – a way to discourage carbon emissions, similar to the system proposed in British Columbia's most recent budget.

Dion hasn't put any specifics out yet on what a Liberal carbon tax shift would look like, but MP Mark Holland (Ajax-Pickering) has said, in an open letter posted on his Facebook site, that it's an idea that's going to take some explaining to voters.

Holland called the idea "bold", which is a euphemism for nutty.  Gas prices are on the rise, and the Liberals will spend the summer arguing for a gas tax to further punish people who drive cars.  Maybe that's not exactly what the Liberals are proposing, but that's how the Conservatives will frame it.  And as long as Stephane Dion refuses to trigger an election, there are no spending limits on this sort of advertising.  The Conservatives can tap into their war chest as much as they like to fund an advertising campaign to push that message.

The Liberals?  No money, no organization, another potentially vote-costing abstention, a platform for higher taxes, Stephane Dion with only weeks left to pay off his $800,000 leadership debt, and the In-and-Out controversy allowed to fade into the background.

Yes, I think there will more than a few very angry Liberals venting through the summer.

Search for more opinions from Canadian bloggers on these related keywords
 Stephane Dion  Liberal Party  Stephen Harper  Conservative Party 

Sphere presents related news articles and blog posts
Sphere It!