Stephane Dion says Canada ought to be ready for a possiblity of a spring election, because the Liberals are ready:

"We are well advanced," Dion said one day after reasserting his leadership by calling on the party to show more discipline. "We have excellent candidates in many regions of Quebec. If an election was to happen, we would be ready."

"There are only a few ridings to fill and often it is because we have three or four candidates on the list," added his Quebec lieutenant, Senator Celine Hervieux-Payette, on hand for a Dion news conference following a meeting with cultural groups.

It was Dion's second consecutive day working to improve his tattered image in his home province following two weeks of embarrassing headlines fueled by his critics.

Dion insisted Friday that is all behind him.

Is there going to be a spring election?  If polls in Quebec are anything to go by, the answer will be a resounding "No!".   Whatever troubles Stephane Dion thinks are behind him are likely to come roaring back as the polls show the Liberal brand dying in Quebec:

In Quebec, Stephen Harper's Conservatives have almost caught up with the Gilles Duceppe's Bloc, with popular support nearly tied -- 29% (PCC) and 30% (BQ) -- according to a CROP-La Presse poll carried out from 13 to 26 March.

Last month, in a previous CROP-La Presse poll, the Bloc were ahead of the Conservative Party by six points (33 to 27).   Today Conservatives are virtually tied with sovereigntists.

"If we compare Bloc's score today with that of the last general election, where it collected 42.1% of popular support in Quebec, the Bloc is party that since has lost, a dive of 12 points," says the CROP vice-president Claude Gauthier.

"As for the Liberals," he adds, "they have stagnated in Quebec.  They were 20.7% in January 2006 and are now 20%.  The Conservatives, for their part, have gained some points.  They have risen from 24.6% in the last election to 29% today.  But the party that benefits more from the declining popularity of the Bloc Quebecois has been the NDP.  The New Democrats have risen from 7.5% in January 2006 to 15% today."

In a year under Stephane Dion's leadership, the Liberals have been unable to move in Quebec.  In effect, they have become a sub-regional party, a factor only in Montreal-based ridings.  Outside, the Liberals are polling horribly.  But frankly, the Liberals are trailing one or two parties two everywhere:

Figures from the survey show that the Bloc is particularly strong in the Montreal area where, thanks to the francophone vote, it takes 32 to 25 on the Liberals Stephane Dion.   The Conservative Party polls at 21 points in Montreal.

In the region of Quebec, the Conservatives continue to dominate with 41% of voting intentions against 25% in the Bloc, the NDP 17% and 14% PLC, which is more bad news for Mr. Dion.

Elsewhere in the region, the Bloc is 30% and the Conservatives 34%.

None of this will serve to quell the rumblings in Quebec.  The Liberal Party is shriveling up in Quebec, and depending on the magnitude of a loss, could cease to be a factor in Quebec for one or two election cycles, or more.  If the Conservatives and the NDP become the federalist options for the right and for the left, getting back into Quebec will become extremely difficult. 

In that sense, there will be some pressure to have an election sooner rather than later.  But that would cost Stephane Dion his job, and it looks like he retains enough control of the party to hold off the election hawks for a few months more.

So we are likely to see a continuation of the abstention "strategy" for the time being.

Why are the Liberals doing so badly after all this time?  I bet some Dion supporters would like to pose that question to Michael Ignatieff.

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