Angry in the Great White North

The by-election results are in for three of four seats as I write this.  Toronto Centre went to Liberal Bob Rae.  Willowdale went to Liberal Martha Hall Findlay.

This proves that when you put two of the country's  most famous Liberals in two of the country's safest Liberal seats, you can expect two easy Liberal victories.

Despite having Stephane Dion as leader.

I guess that's momentum of a sort.

See, Stephane Dion doesn't cause everything to turn into crap.  See!

OK, so what of the other two ridings?  Amazingly, another safe Liberal seat, Vancouver-Quadra, is a bit too close to call, though right now Liberal Joyce Murray is starting to pull away.  With 170 of 237 polls reporting, she leads Conservative Deborah Meredith by less than 1000 votes.  In 2006, the Liberals took this seat with a margin of 12,000 votes.

Why the collapse?  It doesn't make sense.  The Liberals were playing the environment card in a big way.  Didn't the voters see the Liberals are the only credible environmental party in Ottawa?  And Stephane Dion visited the riding.  Clealy that had to help.  Well, it could hurt, could it?

But the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River is the real news.  Joan Beatty jumped from the provincial NDP to run for the federal Liberals.  She did this despite only just having won her provincial seat a few weeks earlier.  Stephane Dion, acting under the supervision of Ralph Goodale, canceled the nomination fight then underway, and appointed Joan Beatty as the nominee. 

In doing so, the Liberals in the riding were split, many of them furious at what they deemed to be outside interference.

The net result of Stephane Dion's clumsy experimentation with leadership?  A decisive victory for the Conservatives.  Conservative Rob Clarke beat Beatty by more than 1700 votes, 48% to 31% of the votes cast.  The cost of listening to Stephane Dion?  Joan Beatty's political career is derailed.  She can't go back to the NDP, she has blown it for the Liberals, and it's very doubtful anyone else will have her.

And to think a few months ago she had a nice safe provincial seat.

When the 2006 election ended, these four seats were Liberal.  Three strong Liberal seats and Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River a squeaker.  Now there are two strong Liberal seats, one solid Conservative seat, and what is shaping up to be a weak Liberal seat.

Momentum?  None as far as I can tell.  This is a stumble backwards for the Liberals, and especially for Stephane Dion, who will be personally blamed by many for thoroughly screwing up the Liberal chances in Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River.

How can the party of the Kelowna Accord lose an aboriginal seat like this?  The answer for many will be simple: Stephane Dion.

Liberals will look to these results and consider what they might mean nationally.  Publicly, they will cheer for three wins out of four.  Privately, they will see a further erosion of support.  In a general election, trends like these could easily tip many swing seats over to the Conservatives.

Let the Liberals cheer.  But it will be the Conservatives who will be smiling.

And one more thing to consider.  A spring vote might happen, but only if all three opposition parties agree to defeat the government.  The NDP has already voted against the budget, against the Afghanistan extension, and against the government's environmental policies.  With that, Jack Layton might think he has some room to find a reason to keep from going to a general election.  Why?  In Toronto Centre, the NDP is just behind the Green party as the final tallies are coming in.  In Willowdale, the NDP definitely finished in fourth behind the Green Party.  In Vancouver-Quadra, the two parties are neck-and-neck.  Only in the primarily aboriginal riding of Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River did the NDP outvote the Greens by a substantial margin.

In other words, the Green Party gave the NDP a severe whipping.

Like I said, only the Conservatives are going to be smiling.