I alluded to this in my piece about The Strategic Counsel poll, but I'd like to expand on it.  The problem we have is two polls showing wildly different views of the mood of the voters.

First off, they're both right inasmuch as I don't believe for a moment that anyone cooked the numbers.  All the polls are honest representations of the information gathered.

But there is the problem of how the numbers are extrapolated, how people who didn't answer the phone were factored in, how the sample was selected in the first place -- all the headaches that come with polling.

Number crunchers can argue the minutia.  Frankly, it doesn't matter.

What matters is the environment in which these polls were released.  The Liberals are fractured, with what seems to be a majority (or at least a very vocal minority not at all shy about discussing caucus meeting details with the press) wanting to hold off on an election.  They have a gut feeling that the Liberals will lose, perhaps quite badly.  They may not care much if Stephane Dion keeps his job (he won't, of course), but they are worried about their own seats, their ability to raise donations, their perks, and so on.

On the other side, we are told, is Stephane Dion and a tight core of supporters who think they can beat the Conservatives.  Once Canadians see Dion on the campaign trail, they'll warm up to him.

Somewhere, we suspect, is a group of mischief makers, who believe as the first group, that the Liberals will lose an election, but have infiltrated the second group, and are telling Stephane Dion to force an election.  This shadowy group, who may or may not exist, are manipulating events to cause an election for the sole purpose of ejecting Stephane Dion as Liberal Party leader.

For each group, polls are weapons.  Until the Strategic Counsel poll, the thinking has been that the Tories and the Liberals have been close, as indicated by the Harris-Decima and Ipsos-Reid polls.  That plays into the pro-election faction, who argue that the numbers are not likely to get much better, and that the Tories are getting stronger, not weaker, with time.  The economy seems to be going generally well despite the American troubles.  The Tories continue to run circles around all the other parties when it comes to raising cash.  And most importantly, any more delay means more abstentions from confidence votes, which in turn plays into the NDP strategy of peeling votes off the Liberal left wing by accusing the Liberal leadership of cowardice in the face of the evil forces of conservatism.

But now, with the budget votes around the corner, the Harris-Decima survey paints a dramatically different picture.  The Liberals will almost certainly lose, it suggests, and would lose quite badly.  A close result might mean most Liberals would keep their seats, but this poll suggests that many would be tossed out.  For the side that has been counseling patience, this poll is confirmation for them that an election now would not be a courageous decision, but a foolish one.

The problem for the pro-election crowd is that none of these surveys show the Liberals ahead -- at best, a statistical tie.  The Harris-Decima survey might be an outlier, but if so, it's fault is that it is exaggerating what the other surveys are already saying.  For the anti-election side of the Liberal caucus, this survey paints a picture of just how bad it might really be out there.  The pro-election crowd has no data (that we know of) that cancels out this poll, that is, no data that shows the Liberals substantially ahead of the Tories.

The best response they can muster in the face of the Harris-Decima poll is that it isn't as bad as that.

How do you rally support in the caucus with the cry, "It's bad, but not that bad!"?

The pro-election side of the caucus now has to neutralize the energizing effect the Harris-Decima poll will have on the anti-election side, and frankly, I don't know what they can use to do that.

The Harris-Decima poll might be off, or it might not, but that doesn't matter.  What matters is that it provides a boost for those who want to put off an election, even it means rolling over on Afghanistan, on the crime bill, on the budget, on the environment, on Kelowna, on subsidized day care, on a manufacturing bailout, and so on and so forth.

If Stephane Dion has been sincere in his desire for an election, his job of pulling the caucus onto his side has become a great deal more difficult.

There is a silver lining for Stephane Dion in all this.  Remember that third group?  Those mischief makers who want an election in order to turf Stephane Dion, and who might go as far as sabotaging the Liberal campaign in order to make that happen?  They have to counter the Harris-Decima poll as well.  Not only is that not a trivial effort, if they try too hard, they risk revealing themselves.

They might lie low until more polls come along, polls that they hope will show the Liberals and the Tories much closer together.

But by then, the budget window will have passed.

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