Angry in the Great White North

The Saskatchewan riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River is at the centre of a controversy.  A Liberal-held riding vacated by Gary Merasty, it was won by the Liberals by a mere 67 votes.

The by-election has been announced for March 17.  David Orchard, the former Progressive Conservative, an anti-free trade activist, and a former organizer for Stephane Dion's successful leadership campaign, had been campaigning hard for the Liberal nomination.  It seemed like Orchard had the blessing of Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion, but then Liberal MP Ralph Goodale pushed for Dion to appoint Joan Beatty, an NDP Saskatchewan MLA.

That is exactly what Stephane Dion has done:

A former Saskatchewan NDP cabinet minister has officially been selected to run as a Liberal candidate in one of four byelections to be held on March 17.

"Joan Beatty brings to the Liberal Party of Canada a strong mix of local knowledge, aboriginal expertise, political experience and a tradition of service to the people of Saskatchewan," Liberal Leader Stephane Dion said in a news release late Thursday.

"I am confident that her passion for her home riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, coupled with her passion for her province and country, will make her a strong member of Parliament and I am so pleased to welcome her to our caucus."

The backroom manoeuvring to find a replacement for Merasty sparked bitter recriminations from supporters of one of Dion's key leadership organizers, anti-free trade activist David Orchard.

Dion initially appeared to give his blessing to an Orchard candidacy but came under pressure to change his mind from Liberals, including House leader Ralph Goodale, who believe Beatty, an aboriginal woman, is best placed to hold the riding, which has a heavy aboriginal population.

When Stephane Dion bypassed the riding nomination process and appointed Jocelyn Coulon to be the candidate for the Quebec by-election in Outremont, Dion's leadership was dealt a blow from which he has yet to recover.  That happened when Coulon lost the riding to the NDP.

Given that Dion appointed Coulon, Dion shouldered a huge amount of the blame personally.

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River was a wafer-thin win for the Liberals.  Losing it in a by-election ought to be seen as an outcome at least as likely as winning it.  If a locally nominated Liberal candidate loses this riding, people will shrug.  If another Dion-appointed candidate loses a Liberal riding, Dion will have to face the post-Outremont criticism all over again, even if the comparison isn't strictly fair.

Will appointing Beatty and bypassing a local nomination race cost the Liberals the riding?  There is a lot of anger (see here and here) being expressed with this top-down decision making.

Nevertheless, Stephane Dion has bowed to Ralph Goodale and appointed Goodale's candidate of choice.  That is presumably the limit of what Stephane Dion is will to do.  Dion is certainly not going to lose his role as leader over a favour to the Liberal Party kingpin in Saskatchewan.

So Ralph Goodale gets his nominee, perhaps against Stephane Dion's better judgment.  At the same time, Stephane Dion doesn't want to face the consequences of yet another by-election loss of a Liberal riding by a hand-picked candidate. 

How does Stephane Dion do the first but avoid the second?  If he can force a general election before the March 17 by-election, then he's safe from being punished for a Liberal loss in one close riding.  In fact, if Dion can win in a general election, his job is safe.  If he loses the general election, he's out as leader, but still that has to be better than being forced out because of a single by-election loss in northern Saskatchewan.

Are we going to have an election in February?  I think the odds have gotten a bit better.  Stephane Dion might be looking for some cover for his decision to appoint Joan Beatty. 

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