Angry in the Great White North

I'm surprised that this sort of poll has not been taken before.  It is a detailed attempt to gauge the mood of Canadians:

A first-of-its kind poll to gauge how Canadians feel about their country found that most are generally upbeat about the future and are even happy with their politicians in Ottawa.

The inaugural "Mood of Canada" poll found that two out of three Canadians (65.8 percent) believe the country is moving in the right direction.

Frankly, it is hard to imagine a better result for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.  It's not about winning a majority but about governing.  If two thirds of Canadians like things the way they are now, then why would an election result in a change of government?  Stephane Dion and the Liberals will be crucified if they force an election for no good reason.

It is hard to find any reason for an election in this poll :

Of the 1,400 respondents, only 20.2 percent said it was moving in the wrong direction while 14 percent didn't know.

There was also a high degree of optimism for the economy in the year ahead, with almost half expecting it to get stronger in 2008, while only 19.8 percent said it will get weaker.

"The one big surprise is how optimistic everybody was," says Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, the Ottawa public opinion and research firm which conducted the poll.

With 2007 almost behind them, Canadians shared their views on six broadly based questions: the general direction of the country, the performance of the Harper government, federal/ provincial relations, the economy, Canada's international reputation and their personal financial situation.

As for the Conservative government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, Nanos says that while people don't have "a warm fuzzy feeling or inspirational feeling" for Harper, the government got "very high marks from Canadians."

Ten percent of respondents gave the government a "very good" rating, 29.4 percent a "good" rating, and 38.1 percent rated it "average." Only nine percent gave the government poor performance marks.

"What Canadians see is a Prime Minister who hasn't made any major mistakes," says Nanos. "They do recognize the competence of the Prime Minister as a manager, some one who knows his mind on issues…they have respect for the job that he has done."

Wow! That means 77.5% of Canadians ranks the Conservative government as average or better.

Are there concerns?  Sure.  Afghanistan.  The environment.  As well there should be concerns -- Canadians ought to be engaged and demand excellence of their leaders, especially on sensitive issues.  The poll suggests that Canadians feel like this is what they think they've been getting.

Young people too are feeling pretty good about things:

Canadian youth are also highly optimistic, with 35.8 percent saying they're better off than a year ago. Nanos says it's understandable that young Canadians would be optimistic — despite carrying student loan debt — given Canada's strong job market and low unemployment rates.

So why are the Liberals still polling so well?  Nik Nanos chalks that up to "resilience", which is polite way of saying inertia, especially in Ontario. 

This puts Stephane Dion in a pickle.  The longer he waits, the more he risks wasting that inertia and having voters, especially in Ontario, stop voting reflexively.  The moment voters start to think, the Liberals run the risk of losing them.  But if Stephane Dion forces an election under these conditions of general widespread optimism, Canadians will wonder why the bother and expense.  Stephane Dion will be compelled to spend valuable campaign time convincing Canadians first that an election was required, and only then trying to convince them to vote Liberal.  If he fails in making either argument, he will have lost that vote.

I guess Stephane Dion is not one of those optimistic Canadians.