Angry in the Great White North

Canadians were not asked who they would vote for, but rather what they thought would happen in the next election:

Canadians predict Stephen Harper and Hillary Clinton will win in national elections this year in their respective countries, but only one in three thinks the Conservative prime minister can break through and obtain a majority government, a national poll reveals.

The poll questioned Canadians on the political horizon for 2008 by asking them if they thought there was a good or bad chance of something happening. Three-quarters (73%) believe there is a good chance that there will be a federal election called in Canada this year and two-thirds (63%) believe that Harper will be re-elected.

Only 31% predicted that there is a good chance he will win a majority.

One of the more irritating comments politicians of all stripes make is how Canadians have decided that they want a minority government to limit government action.  That's nonsense, since it suggests some sort of voter collusion.  When a vote is cast in favour of one party or another, the voter is either hoping for, or accepting the possibility of, a majority for that party.

The number of people who expect a Conservative majority tracks closely with the number of people who are committed to voting for the Conservatives.  That's no surprise.  So why do double that number expect a Conservative minority?

That additional 32% is coming from Liberal and NDP voters.  So why are Liberal and NDP voters conceding the next election to the Conservatives in such large numbers?

I think it's because the polls are telling them so.  Polls continue to state the same thing: the Conservatives are holding to a minority government.  That gets reported in news stories, and dissected and analyzed by columnists and bloggers.  So what do we expect to hear when we ask people what they think will happen?

Exactly what they're told is going to happen.

And the Hillary Clinton thing?  Chalk that up to name recognition.  Most Canadians probably couldn't name the other Democratic contenders, or what state is holding the first primaries, or who the Republicans are vying for the ticket who would then face off the Democratic nominee.

That makes this poll just about useless on all counts.