I've written before on how the NDP ought to forming the core of Canada's left-of-centre vote.  It would not be the current NDP, but some more centrist version.  But unlike the Liberal Party, a centrist NDP would still philosophically rule from the left, as the Conservatives rule from the right, moderating decisions whenever idealism hits the hard wall of realism (which is always).

The Liberals, on the other hand, rule with no roots.  The Liberal Party steals platform planks from the left and the right whenever opportunistically convenient.

The idea of the NDP, or some successor to the NDP, becoming Canada's other party is an idealistic view.  Realistically, Jack Layton has a serious problem, even though he talks as if the NDP is on the verge causing such a realignment in Canadian politics:

New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton is hoping to inspire an orange wave across Canada during a general election in 2008 to change the country's direction on fighting global warming, the war in Afghanistan and reducing the gap between Canadians who make the most money and those who make the least.

"We had some exciting growth (for the NDP) in 2007, and would certainly hope to see that continue," Mr. Layton said in an interview Monday. "But most important, I'm hoping that the country will change direction as a result of an election."

With 30 MPs, the New Democrats are the fourth largest party in Canada's minority Parliament behind the governing Conservatives, the opposition Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. However, Mr. Layton said the NDP was hoping to build on the success of a September byelection victory in Quebec.

It certainly sounds like Jack Layton is planning to take the NDP to at least third place.  He makes it clear that taking aim at the Liberal Party is critical to his strategy:

Mr. Layton said his party had distinguished itself from the Liberals by voting against Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government instead of propping it up last fall and endorsing policies that he said rewarded wealthy Canadians and oil and gas companies and penalized struggling industries and lower-income individuals who would gain little from tax cuts.

And there is the problem for Jack Layton.

How many times did the NDP vote against the government on an issue of confidence?  Four times?  Five?  Thirty?

How many elections have we had?  Let's see...add these...carry the one...rounding up...none!

The NDP can't cause an election to happen.  It is dependent on the Liberal Party and on the Bloc Quebecois, and it is not likely that either will vote down the government when their own polling numbers are bad.

Remember that the NDP will be fighting the left-of-centre Bloc Quebecois for left-of-centre votes in Quebec, and with the left-of-centre Liberals everywhere else in Canada.

If polls show the Liberals in a horrible position, there won't be an election.  If polls show the Bloc Quebecois in a horrible position, there won't be an election.

If polls show both the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois surging, then Jack Layton and the NDP will decide if there is an election.

The NDP could join the other two and force an election, just at the worst possible time for the NDP.

The Conservatives know this.  If the Liberals are surging, all Stephen Harper has to do is entice the NDP with a confidence bill that includes something nice for the environment or the auto sector.  Jack Layton would be sorely tempted to "make parliament work" and vote with the government.  Heck, if it helps, Stephen Harper could something positive about the NDP influence in framing the bill.

To me, though key lies in the by-elections coming in March.  All four seats were Liberal seats.  With Stephane Dion's leadership troubles, any result that ends up with the Liberal Party ending up with less than all four seats is going to put Stephane Dion's leadership problems back into sharp focus.  In all likelihood, I think the Liberals stand to lose at least one seat.  If the Liberals are recovering now, Stephane Dion is going to be eager to force an election before those by-elections.  On the other hand, the NDP is going to be in a better position after those by-elections battling the damaged Liberals.

Why?  If Stephane Dion loses any of those seats, he might not be given the chance to delay an election again until the Liberal polling numbers look better.  The urge in the Liberal Party to fight an election in order to lose and force Stephane Dion out will grow, and Dion might not be able to contain it. 

Those are the circumstances that offer the best chance for Jack Layton and the NDP.

But that means the government has to survive through the next budget, and a confidence measure has to come up at the right time after the by-elections, and that Stephane Dion has to be seriously hurt by the by-election results.

Jack Layton has a lot of work to do before there is an election if he thinks the NDP is going to score big.  He has to arrange things so that an election is called when the NDP is doing well in the polls, and the Liberals are not.  That might mean waiting at least until the by-elections are held, and that in turn might mean supporting the government.

The NDP is likely to do OK no matter when an election is held.  But OK means being right back where the NDP is right now.  Jack Layton is promising a lot more.  To make that happen is going to require some clever politicking, and not just bluster.