Angry in the Great White North

Jack Layton's NDP is full of vim and vigour since winning the Quebec by-election in the riding of Outremont.  Now the NDP is making promises of major gains in the next general election:

Federal NDP Leader Jack Layton is expecting a banner breakthrough for his party in 2008, hoping to scoop seats in Alberta, Quebec and Newfoundland.

Layton said his party is on a high after a fall byelection win in Quebec, and plans to build on that momentum by wooing voters who are sick of scandal, want an end to the war in Afghanistan and demand strong action on the climate change crisis.

"I'm sure a lot of people are scratching their heads and asking what needs to be done to get a clean government in this country," Layton said in a year-end interview. "The main effect this has is it has turned people off politics in general who say it's a pox on all your houses. I would point out that the NDP has never occupied those houses -- yet -- and maybe it's time to give New Democrats a chance."

Well, I wouldn't give tax-and-spend New Democrats a chance, but I'm just one vote.  Has Jack Layton managed to sway voters who are less discriminating than me?

In the Ontario riding Toronto Centre, the NDP and the Conservatives finished well behind the Liberals.  In fact, the NDP and the Conservatives finished only a four thousand votes apart.  Can the NDP open up that difference, pulling votes from the Conservatives, even if the Liberals take Toronto Centre again?

The Liberal stronghold of Willowdale is a more difficult challenge for the NDP.  In 2006, the Conservatives came in second with 29% of the vote, while the NDP finished a distant third with only 11% of the votes cast.  Can the NDP do more in Willowdale than get their deposit back?

Vancouver Quadra is yet another Liberal stronghold, and like Willowdale, the NDP finished a distant third.  If Jack Layton is serious about being a player, the NDP will have to do much better in traditionally progressive British Columbia.

In Saskatchewan, the fight in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River could be the most revealing.  The Liberals scratched out a win by a mere 67 votes.  If the NDP is really ready to challenge the Liberals, the effect ought to be most apparent in the balance of votes in this riding.  If the NDP is snapping at the Liberals, the riding might go back to the Conservatives.  If on the other hand, the NDP is actually taking votes from both the Conservatives and the Liberals, the finish is less easy to predict.  And if the NDP is making no headway...well, then if the NDP can't make a difference in a close riding like Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, it's hard to imagine the NDP making a difference anywhere.