Just this past week, there was a great deal of agitation because of a poll that showed the Conservatives slide into a tie with the Liberals:

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have lost their big lead over the Liberals in the wake of recent controversies, plunging six percentage points in popular support in just one week.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey puts the Tories at 30-per-cent support, in a statistical tie with the Liberals who are up four points to 32 per cent.

Support for the Tories dropped across all regions and demographic groups.

The striking shift follows several controversies that may be taking a toll on the governing party, including former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney's admission that he accepted cash-stuffed envelopes from arms lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber; heavy criticism of Canada's position at the climate-change summit in Bali and political fallout from a critical shortage of medical isotopes due to the shutdown of the Chalk River nuclear reactor.

In just one week!  Well, I guess that tells you something.  It tells you to wait for another poll.

So I did.  Except for a brief response to a comment I didn't write about this poll, instead waiting to see what the next poll said.  It has come out, and it says the same thing every poll before the Harris-Decima one had been saying.  The Conservatives still shy of majority territory, the Liberals mired under 30%, the NDP not breaking through -- in other words, nothing has changed:

The governing Conservative party remains in first place in Canada’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

The Liberal party is second with 28 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent, and the Green party also with 10 per cent. Support for the Tories and Grits fell by one point since October, while backing for the Bloc and Greens increased by the same margin.

The Harris-Decima poll was conducted between December 13 and December 17.  The Angus-Reid poll was conducted between December 13 and 14.  Both sampled slightly more than 1000 Canadians, both with error rates of 3.1 percent.

I tend to believe the the Angus-Reid poll for two reasons:

• The data was collected over a shorter time frame, which reduces variability.  Also, I wonder if the four-day polling period for the Harris-Decima poll was in part a problem with getting people to answer the phone.
• The Angus-Reid poll delivers up the same numbers as all the other recent polls.

Here are some other highlights of the Angus-Reid poll:

• Approval Ratings: Harper 30%, Dion 14%
• Preferred Prime Minister: Harper 33%, Dion 12%, Neither 41%

The Conservatives have challenges.  Major indicators have slipped from highs enjoyed in the spring, but not the wholesale slide reported in the Harris-Decima poll. 

For Stephane Dion, of course, the news is grave.  Over half of the Canadians asked, 51%, disapprove of his performance, the first time he's reached cracked the 50% mark on this measure.  He's always insisted that once people got to know him, the numbers would turn around.  Well, over half the people have formed an opinion.

Bottom line?  It's Christmas.  There will plenty of polls in the New Year.  Don't sweat the polls today.