In the 2006 federal election, Liberal Ralph Goodale won his riding of Wascana with a comfortable 52% of the popular vote.

In the 2003 Saskatchewan provincial election, the NDP won the 43% of the vote.

The incumbent, Doreen Hamilton, did not run for re-election. As revealed in last night's provincial election, the attitude in Wascana has shifted dramatically. Christine Tell of the right-of-centre Saskatchewan Party won with 53% of the vote in the provincial riding of Regina Wascana Plains. The NDP candidate got just over 31% of the vote.

Now consider this comment from a Saskatchewan-based blogger upset that Ralph Goodale did not campaign for the provincial Liberal Party candidate:

Where's Ralph Goodale in this Campaign? As the only card-carrying Liberal who is actually elected to any position in the province, he might be of some use.

Oh, right, he depends on too much NDP support in his riding federally to piss them off provincially.

So if there is a link between the NDP vote provincially and Ralph Goodale's success federally, does the shift in Regina Wascana Plains presage a more difficult fight federally for the Liberals in Wascana?

And if provincially Saskatchewan is moving right, does that make Stephane Dion's difficulties even more serious? How well will Stephane Dion's presentation play in Saskatchewan? And not just Stephane Dion's fractured English, but veiled threats to nationalize resource-based industries in the name of Kyoto?

And if Ralph Goodale thinks his future in politics is being threatened, even a little bit, by Stephane Dion's miserable performance as Liberal leader coupled with shifts in voting patterns in Saskatchewan, does Stephane Dion need to keep an eye on Ralph Goodale too?

There's a serious problem with Ralph Goodale. He's a nice guy. A lot of Liberals still frightened by Michael Ignatieff and unwilling to trust former NDP premier Bob Rae and yet looking for someone who was not directly sullied by the Liberal leadership campaign might look to Ralph Goodale. If they were looking for someone other that Stephane Dion, that is, and we all know the Liberals are united behind their leader.