Is the Toronto Star fed up with Stephane Dion?
The Toronto Star is advising Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion to vote against the Tory financial update and trigger an election.
Until now, the accepted wisdom has been that Stephane Dion would lose that election, and almost certainly his job.
So what has changed that the Toronto Star thinks an election would be a good idea?
Absolutely nothing.
In today's Toronto Star editorial, the advice to Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion is to bring down the government and fight an election:
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government revealed itself yesterday as a party of the "me-first" right in a Halloween eve mini-budget packed with tax-cut treats favouring affluent Canadians.
But it ran out of goodies for those with the greatest needs – the poor, workers losing jobs in the battered manufacturing sector and everyone else who believes the federal government should be playing the leading role in making Canada richer, stronger and fairer.
Indeed, the mini-budget delivered yesterday by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is so lacking in the vision and programs needed to address the major social and economic challenges facing Canada that it should be defeated when it comes up for a vote today in Parliament.
And Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, who says his party opposes the budget but will vote for it, should immediately reverse his position and order his party members to reject it.
The Toronto Star is a very pro-Liberal paper, editorially speaking, so what gives?
An election right now, most people believe, could very well result in a Conservative majority government. Though that is not a given, it is far more widely accepted that the new minority situation would see the Liberals dramatically weakened. Certainly in Quebec, where the Liberals are polling neck-and-neck with the NDP while trailing far behind the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois, the Liberals could be nearly wiped out everywhere but for a few enclaves in Montreal. And even those are in doubt.
Less predictable are factors like how Stephane Dion would perform in a Leader's debate. But over and over again observers say that deputy leader Michael Ignatieff outshines Stephane Dion during Question Period. With Jack Layton just as likely to target Stephane Dion from the left in order to steal votes, and Stephen Harper attacking from the right, Stephane Dion's tortured English and pedantic delivery would in all likelihood result in a performance that would further hurt the Liberals.
We have Blair Wilson's terrible troubles. We have the fallout from Jamie Carroll's resignation. We have the Liberals without any cash. We have Jean Chretien's memoirs.
Worst of all for Stephane Dion, we have Stephen Harper as a known quantity. He's been Prime Minister for nearly two years. He is clearly a conservative, staking out conservative position on everything from the Middle East to the environment to the economy. Not far-right scary stuff, but clearly conservative (in my mind, anyway). A conservatism suited for governing as opposed to writing polemics.
Canadians have not fled in terror from this.
On the other hand, what do Canadians know about Stephane Dion's ability to lead? When criticized, he mewled about how it wasn't fair to blame him as the former environment minister for Kyoto's failure. Why? Because it's really hard to set priorities.
Not a leader...
So for all sort of reasons, the Liberals are abstaining from vote after vote. The Conservative government's legislative agenda is unacceptable and bad for Canadians says Stephane Dion, but worse yet is losing. I've pointed out that this actually makes some sense, but only if you are interested in preserving the Liberal Party.
And yet the Toronto Star says go for an election over Jim Flaherty's financial update. Why? Because it doesn't do enough for the poor by cutting the GST and lowering taxes across the board.
I don't know about you, but it would seem that the Toronto Star is saying the the Liberals should fight an election on the issue that the Conservatives are acting like Conservatives and not like Liberals. Yes, well, that's what we'd expect, right?
The Conservatives didn't break any promises with this budget. Indeed, they completed keeping a promise.
So if the Conservatives are not likely to loose any support (there might be some anger over income trusts, but the issue doesn't have much traction with most Canadians, and anyway, the Bloc and the NDP supported the measure, blunting opposition criticism). The Liberals are not likely to gain any and might very well lose much more (Quebec is still in freefall, and Stephane Dion is suggesting he would repeal a GST cut, which is not a vote-winning platform plank).
Afghanistan as an issue is essentially neutralized with the Manley panel. The environmental plan the Tories have presented appeals to regular Canadians who don't want much to do with economically disastrous options put forth by the other parties, and even Elizabeth May of the Green Party undercut the opposition by muting her criticism.
As far as I can tell, nothing points to the Liberals winning. Everything points to the Liberals losing at least a little, and quite possibly a lot. The only thing in doubt seems to be whether the Conservatives win a majority.
So maybe that's the key.
Maybe the Toronto Star figures that, right now, an election would result in a Conservative minority. Indeed, the Toronto Star isn't demanding an election because they think the Liberals will win. All the editorial board says is that the Liberals could win, hypothetically:
Also, there is no guarantee Harper would win the next election, despite his desire to hold a vote sooner rather than later. A new Harris/Decima poll suggests the Tories are at 33 per cent in overall support, barely four points ahead of the Liberals. Those results should tell Dion the vast majority of voters dislike Harper and his policies.
But we don't use proportional representation. With support for the Liberals concentrated in Atlantic Canada and in a few urban enclaves, the riding distribution is likely to favour the Conservatives. Opposition does not win a seat, support does. It might be true that 70% of Canadians are voting for other parties, but they aren't voting for the same party, and certainly not for Stephane Dion's Liberals. The numbers might show that the Conservative have not gained much, but clearly the Liberals have lost, much of it to the NDP. How can you win if you are just trying to recover votes from the third place guy instead of stealing votes from the leader? But aside from how the votes are spread around, the Liberals are at least 4 points behind, and quite possibly farther, and that deficit would have to be overcome in the course of a short election campaign.
Could Stephane Dion, with all the baggage he is carrying, make up the lost ground and then pull ahead? With both Stephen Harper and Jack Layton attacking, and Gilles Duceppe pulling out all the stops to hold onto BQ seats in Quebec targetting a weaker Liberal Party as an easier source of votes instead of a stronger Conservative Party while at the same time holding off the NDP stealing votes from both, does this seem likely?
The Toronto Star is advocating an election so that the Liberals under Stephane Dion could fight on the issue of the Conservatives doing exactly what they've always said they'd do.
The Toronto Star doesn't mention any of these other variables that I've listed.
To me, and I'm no expert, it looks like suicide.
Maybe that's exactly what it is. Maybe the Toronto Star is fed up with Stephane Dion. Maybe the Toronto Star has figured that an election know would still result in a Stephen Harper minority government, but that the Liberal loss would spell the end of Stephane Dion's spell as party leader.
Maybe the Toronto Star would like the Liberals to avoid an even worse loss in the future, the editorial board having decided that Stephane Dion is on a downward trend that is not going to change.
The Liberal Party does not take its cue from the Toronto Star's editorial board. But I bet Stephane Dion had wished that the Toronto Star editorial would have said something about "wise leadership" and "keeping your powder dry" and "choosing the time and place", instead of "Jump! Jump! Jump!"
As it is, the Toronto Star is saying Canada would be better off if Stephane Dion went against the collective wisdom of his caucus and initiated an election no one believes he can win.
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Comments
I found the Toronto Star editorial strange, but not altogether surprising. It is likely one of the only publications in the country that can truly find fault with this mini budget, and representative of one of the last Liberal bastions in the country.
Perhaps the T. Star is simply tired of seeing the Liberals having sand kicked in its face, acting like the 98-pound weakling it has truly become.
Posted by: Kinger at October 31, 2007 01:45 PM
The Toronto Star will support the Liberals regardless of Dion's ultimate fate.The Star only pretends to show concerns for poverty,environment, funding for Toronto,national day care etc. It should be clear by now that even though the Libs. have continually fallen short on all these issues for decades,the Star will blindly support them. The Star isn't interested in results on these files only headlines.In the end they will endorse Dion no matter what he does or says.
Posted by: David at October 31, 2007 01:53 PM
Well I like it, by my math it's 9k+ per taxpayer saved, Yahoo!
9,246.66 Treats this Halloween! Well over 5 years better so insignificant no MSMer will put that much in steves paypal box.
Posted by: dinosaur at October 31, 2007 02:00 PM
I'm just sick to death of these maniacs asking for more Programs.
"is so lacking in the vision and programs needed to address the major social and economic challenges"
One day i'd like to see how much is spent all togheter on programs and real tangible benefits they have except employement to those working there, and those building the beautifull infrastructures required for the offices. Same with the health care, every time they get a bunch of millions, they build a new wing, yet you can't get an MRI. Stop with the fountains and gets some decent equipement and labour in there.
The 'Lack of vision' is a farce. The vision is the best i've seen in my lifetime, reduce taxes, get rid of debt, kill off needles programs, basically get out of the business of running my life, and what a govevement is supposed to do, defend my rights, security, etc and stop taking from me.
Posted by: Harry at October 31, 2007 03:55 PM
I WISH we had an election. Garth thinks that the people of Halton want a new government. Hes partially right. We DO want something new.
A new MP.
Vote against the mini budget...we DARE YOU!
Come on, vote against it.
Whats that? Oh the Lib WHIP office called Garth and told him to sit on his hands...and like a good LIB lap dog, he obeys.
Our Halton MP in action.
Posted by: Halton Resident at October 31, 2007 04:08 PM
It's easy enough to see why.
The sooner the election, the sooner they can get rid of Dion....
The only quicker way is if they get the torches and pitchforks out and depose him without the technicality of actually losing an election.
Posted by: Davide at October 31, 2007 05:28 PM
The Star's Editorial Board knows as well as anyone that the Dion program of Opposition by Abstention is a farce.They also know that the LPC is in financial and organizational disarray and are unable to run a real election campaign in the near future. But in order to support the Liberal brand, a call for defeating the government plays to the Liberal core as a fantasy moral booster.
But you wonder how long this No Vote Opposition will run before even the Liberal core realizes that party survival is more important than good government. One thing you can say is that Dion has taken the term "Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition" to a new level.
Posted by: john at October 31, 2007 05:48 PM
Maybe the Toronto Star is just trying to force one of those tipping points that you have talked about, Steve. Something has to be done about Dion, because he just gets deeper into puffin doodoo every day. Now, Dion is saying that Liberals, if they gain power may reverse that GST cut. Say, there's a winning campaign strategy.
Now, he's named Garth Turner as the newest member of the House of Commons Finance Committee to go along with his Special Advisorship on Fundraising and Priority and Planning duties. Garth has become Dion's right hand man. I guess Dion nor his advisors are concerned with Garth's apparent fundraising irregularities.
How long will the Liberal Party put up with this?
Posted by: muttsrus at October 31, 2007 05:51 PM
It would be nice to know why the Tor. Star would recommend an election right now?
Perhaps they also would like to get rid of Dion?
Well that would be the day.
Let the man stay on and take the Liberal Party along to defeat, that would be a plus for Canada.
Posted by: Jan at October 31, 2007 06:15 PM
The Toronto Star tends to be a left wing newspaper generally. Which is why they tend to support the Liberal party. So what they may be showing is not some secret agenda but rather displaying that they are not an unquestioning Liberal-party supporter, but rather only as long as the Liberal party reflects their views.
Although basing an predictions on a single editorial is a dubious process I'm curious to see if the Toronto Star endorses the NDP next time around.
It wouldn't be all that surprising after all. I mean the Globe and Mail has become rather fond of Harper's policies and Harper himself through their editorials.
Posted by: southernontarioan at October 31, 2007 06:23 PM
In a way, Dion's (in)action on the mini-budget is yet another example of what we've been saying about what Liberals stand for: the acquisition and retention of power - in this case, Dion's.
Dion wants to be Prime Minister; in fact, as a Liberal leader, he probably believes it is his Divine right. Up to now, every leader the Liberals have ever had has sat in the PMO for at least a few weeks - even John Turner. If Dion does not add "The Right Honourable" to his name, he will become the first-ever Liberal leader to fail to do so ... not exactly the place in history he probably had in mind.
What does this have to do with The Star's editorial? Just this: if Dion were a statesman and a true team-player, he'd trigger the election now (when it might result in another minority), take his lumps and step aside. Instead, he will stay on as Liberal leader as long as possible in hopes of somehow containing the implosion of the Liberal Party and becoming Prime Minister in the next election in 2009 - and will instead witness Stephen Harper forming a majority government at that time. By then the Liberals will have fallen so far that they may find themselves reduced to third-party status.
Posted by: Tom at October 31, 2007 07:55 PM
What planet am I on?
I can't even hallucinate about people against tax cuts.
How can any moron think tax cuts is a bad thing??
And a GST cut is satanic ??
Who would ever vote for a party that wants to increase everyones tax burden?? Why the answer is only in Canada eh.
With three disloyal opposition parties. What a brainwash !!!
So many clowns & not enough circus'
Now I want an election... just to show these commies how real Canadians deal with this BS.
Posted by: banjotom at October 31, 2007 08:08 PM
According to Duffy, an election loss for Dion would still mean he keeps his job for 2 years. Seems the liberal rules state a leadership review is held 2 yrs after an election. That is why dion wants an election, to keep his job. Iggys pals want him out before an election so the caucus can appoint a new leader, and only iggy has a seat. But, duffy did mention that a lot of caucus like goodale, and he has been taking french lessons. Regardless, there is a plot of some kind to get rid of dion.
Posted by: Mary T at October 31, 2007 08:14 PM
What the Toronto Star doesn't seem to realize is that the poor, the sick and youth just don't vote ... they are stupid, just like the Toronto Star.
I recall an Ontario election with Bill Harris cutting back on health care while paving all the highways. Sick people don't vote but car drivers do .. and Harris won big.
If the Toronto Star editorial board are appealing to the altruism of Canadians on behalf of the poor and the sick and telling Canadians that the only way they can resolve their angst is to vote Liberal and higher taxation ... well then the Toronto Star is beyond stupid ... they are dead from the neck up.
Posted by: Observant at October 31, 2007 11:06 PM
Who's Bill Harris?
Posted by: Tom at October 31, 2007 11:35 PM
Has anyone checked the latest Harris poll? - conservatives up only 4%. The Star may have seen this in advance. Seems the problem is that too many people do not trust Harper. I have commented on this before. Harper lost my trust on his government's violation of the Atlantic Accord and then being misleading about it. This was despite his pre-election assurances that he had reformed on the issue of supporting Atlantic Canada. Yes Virginia, there is a hidden agenda. I, a life-long conservative, will not vote conservative.
Posted by: murray at November 1, 2007 05:02 AM
Bill Harris was a player for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the late '50s and early '60s. He scored the tying goal in that famous sixth game of the '64 Cup finals when Bobby Baun scored the winner in overtime on a broken leg.
All these Harrises -- the player, the pollster, the premier...
As for Harper -- the current situation is great. Govern with a minority like it's a majority. Sounds good to me.
Posted by: Ben (The Tiger) at November 1, 2007 05:57 AM
Who will cut the gordian knot of a silk thread 'round Citoyen's chicken neck? Who will spring the trapdoor?
STOPIGGY? Boob Rae, nephew of Mao Strong? Hezbollah Coderre? Power Corp? Whoooo?
Red Star: "These are questions Dion needs to answer immediately if he hopes to maintain any credibility with the voters."
And, with the Red Star. Some credibility.
...-
EDITORIAL
TheStar
Dion's credibility hangs by a thread
[...]
In his essay for the Star, Dion also said he wants to build "the richest, fairest and greenest country in the world."
He cannot do that, though, by continually propping up the Harper Conservatives. And he cannot do it if he won't tell Canadians what his bottom line is before his party will defeat the government. Is there one issue that will force him to act? Hasn't Harper done enough already in his bid to reverse or discredit the progressive social policies introduced by previous Liberal governments?
These are questions Dion needs to answer immediately if he hopes to maintain any credibility with the voters.
(TO Star)
Posted by: maz2 at November 1, 2007 07:09 AM
Murray: Your desperation is showing. You're talking silly talk, bordering on pure barnyard offal. You were not a Conservative and never will be. Makes a good tale for a lying Liberal.
Posted by: Libby at November 1, 2007 05:43 PM
Actually Libby, I was a young PC when I was 14 when the Young Concervatives convention was in Calgary and have voted conservative each federal election since. Donated $250 to a conseravtiocve candidate last election. Not the next one for sure. Again, look at the polls. My father has voted conservative since 1972. After the income trust betrayal, he will certainly not vote for Harper. Isee it all around.
Menawhile, the economy is humming with unemployment at the lowest level in 33 years, yet the conservatives cannot get above 40% in the polls. Almost every (non-Conservative) commentator says the same thing--people like the party but do not trust Harper.
Posted by: murray at November 5, 2007 03:42 PM
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