Angry in the Great White North

Blair Wilson is alleged to have misspent millions in family funds, as well as having run part of his 2006 election campaign with cash payments and no supporting receipts.

Questions have been raised about whether Blair Wilson is fit for public office.

So far those questions have been coming from outside of Ottawa, but we can speculate on what discussions are happening right now inside the Liberal Party leadership.

When Jamie Carroll was alleged to have insulted Quebec sensibilities in a closed door meeting, no one suggested that Carroll had done anything illegal. Indeed, there were conflicting reports about what Carroll had actually said. Stephane Dion stood by Carroll, and inside of a week, Carroll was out of a job, the Liberal Party looked to be in disarray, and Stephane Dion's already battered image as an effective and decisive leader had taken yet another massive blow.

That was only four weeks ago.

Blair Wilson is alleged to have broken the law. He is alleged to have misspent millions of dollars. His past as a businessman is marked with failed business ventures resulting in lawsuits from employees and partners who felt they had been misled by Wilson. Accouting records, emails, and eyewitness accounts seem to support the allegations.

Can Stephane Dion stand by Blair Wilson the way he did Jamie Carroll?

There are several competing pressures in play here. Jamie Carroll was a close confidante of Stephane Dion's, while Blair Wilson is not. Jamie Carroll was targetted by a Quebec faction of the Liberal Party eager to hurt Stephane Dion, whereas we don't know how the pieces of the Liberal Party are coalescing around the Blair Wilson story. Blair Wilson is an MP and a member of the shadow cabinet and so questions will be raised about what Stephane Dion knew and how well he is able to judge the character of his appointees. The riding of West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country was a close win for the Liberals, and could easily go to the Conservatives if the Liberals are forced to run a neophyte candidate in place of the incumbent. Removing an MP from a position of responsibility will look very bad, and is not a decision that ought to be made lightly. Even worse, Blair Wilson's position in caucus is in jeopardy. Maybe even his seat in the House? The Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois will make an issue of this for as long as Blair Wilson remains where he is. The Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois will make an issue of this the moment the Liberal Party moves against Blair Wilson.

So it could either way.

But here's a prediction. Stephane Dion will move quickly on this. He's been burned before and burned badly in part because of delays that have been cast as examples of indecsion or of poor judgment. Not this time, and not for Blair Wilson. He'll be out of the shadow cabinet, and quite possibly out of caucus, in very short order, "pending the resolution of these baseless accusations", or something along these lines.

So what makes me think this will break this way?

Blair Wilson endorsed Michael Ignatieff during the Liberal leadership campaign.

[Follow the story at The Province blog.]

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