Liberals regroup or just resting between rounds?
Has Stephane Dion weathered the worst? Is the chaos that has been besetting the Liberal Party finally faded away? Though things have been quiet, with even a mote of good news about candidate Marc Garneau, observers suggest that the calm is deceptive.
After over 40 minutes of laboured delivery, Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion finally announced to the House of Commons that despite the fact that the only thing the Liberals liked about the Throne Speech was how well Governor General Michaelle Jean delivered it, the Liberals would not be voting against it.
Since then, things have been going well for the Liberals. No disasters, and even welcome news that ex-austronaut Marc Garneau, who had very publicly announced he would not run for the Liberals after being ignored by Stephane Dion, would stand as the candidate in Westmount-Ville Marie.
Indeed, the press began reporting on a new sense of discipline emerging from within the Liberal Party:
Stephane Dion’s decision last week to run away from an election over the Harper government’s throne speech, has bought the demoralized Grits some precious time to regroup.
However brief it turns out to be — and some Liberals believe it may be as little as a few weeks — the leader is hoping to use the hard-won reprieve to get the party back in fighting form.
Among the measures planned, insiders say Dion will:
- Begin selectively unveiling platform planks, giving Canadians a better idea of what he and the Liberals stand for.
- Ensure the party is election ready through the continued shakeup of his inner circle, party brass and campaign team, and by intensified candidate recruitment.
- Make better use of unscripted, interactive forums — including daily question period in the House of Commons and townhall-style encounters with voters — to demonstrate that Dion, the sober policy wonk, also has a scrappy, feisty side.
Did the stark terror of an election pull the Liberal factions together? Could be.
But then today we have two columns that suggest otherwise.
First, Greg Weston explains that fundamentally, nothing has changed with regards to Stephane Dion's effectiveness as a communicator, and his perception as a potential leader:
Today, Gritdom is again alive with the sounds of wringing hands and gnashing teeth as the party confronts its worst leadership crisis in the nearly 20 years since Turner's last near-execution.
In the 11 months since Dion assumed the Grit crown, Liberal fortunes have gone from bad to worse on almost every front.
As Dion amply demonstrated in his painful response to this week's Conservative throne speech, the Liberals have no coherent policy platform to present to Canadian voters in the likely event of an election sometime in the near future.
The party's election war chest more aptly resembles a change-purse, grassroots campaign volunteers are running for the exits, and high-profile prospective candidates are staying away in droves.
Internally, the party organization is in disarray and increasingly demoralized over Dion's leadership -- or lack thereof -- and the party's electoral prospects.
So even if things seemed to have clamed down somewhat, the problem still remains: Stephane Dion.
And with that in mind, consider what ex-Liberal cabinet minister Sheila Copps perceives under the calm surface. More waves to capsize Stephane Dion, waves raised by a pending move by Michael Ignatieff:
There is a popular view amongst some Liberals that a quick election will provoke a disastrous Dion loss, clearing the way for Ignatieff's ascendancy. For Iggy supporters, that couldn't come too soon. That is why backers Denis Coderre and Pablo Rodriquez declined Dion's invitation to assume the dubitable role of Quebec lieutenant.
Coderre and Rodriguez both knew how damaging their refusals would be. How can a savvy political operator like Coderre launch a plea for party unity one week and deliberately sow disunity the next? Obviously, his refusal is no accident but part of a larger plan to pressure the leader. The strategy hatched in advance of the Outremont by-election loss and culminating in Liberal parliamentary crisis this week, will either provoke an election or a Dion resignation. Some Liberals, convinced Dion will not go quietly, think an early election is the only way to get rid of their hapless leader.
So bullish is the Ignatieff team that supporter and former minister Liza Frulla was practically salivating on television this week, recounting in excruciating detail the multiple blows inflicted on Dion by his own party.
She kept repeating that the situation was sad but her face looked anything but.
Still, you can't deny the last few days have been good for the Liberals. The highlight, of course, was Marc Garneau's decision to run as a Liberal after all.
I'm sure Michael Ignatieff is very pleased to see one his high-profile supporters installed as a candidate in an important Quebec riding.
Did I say "Michael Ignatieff"? I meant to say that I'm sure Stephane Dion is very pleased to see a high-profile Liberal installed as a candidate in an important Quebec riding.
Yes, that's better. I'm sure things will be going fine for the Liberals...at least until tomorrow. Maybe Tuesday, on the outside.
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Comments
Re: the Liberals' possibly regrouping. There was an interesting interview by Craig Oliver with former Lib. MP Jean Lapierre & Prof. Tom Flanagan.
Lapierre contends that dissatisfaction with Dion is spreading from Quebec westward, and that things may come to a head at the meeting of the 308 presidents (?) of riding associations scheduled to take place in Montreal in Dec.
Posted by: Gabby in QC at October 21, 2007 12:09 PM
I watched Question Period on CTV and the consensus appeared to be that Dion is dead man walking. Jane Taber even asked if there is a way that the Liberals can get rid of Dion. Of course, Jean Lapierre was the most damning; he said something to the effect that not only is Dion losing in Quebec but he is starting to bleed in the ROC, in particular Ontario and once the Ontario caucus thinks they could lose their seats, things will get ugly. He also mentioned a meeting on Dec. 1st of 300 Liberal Party presidents in Quebec that could be interesting.
I usually have a hard time watching QP but today's show was surprisingly enjoyable.
Posted by: muttsrus at October 21, 2007 12:30 PM
The riding association meeting might be the target in Dion's crosshairs. Watch for him to cause the government to fall before that December meeting. Then he can lose and resign with some dignity, instead of being forced out without having even fought an election. Of course, he will see it differently -- he had to fight and win that election, and he will win, he just has to do it before those riding presidents screw things up.
Posted by: Steve Janke at October 21, 2007 02:28 PM
They not only don't have 'coherent" policies they have a leader who could not deliver them in coherent language to the majority of the people, those who don't speak French.
The language problem is not improving, in fact, it appears like he is not able to master it.
It's most unfortunate but criticism is fair because all politicians who have aspirations to lead their party or become Prime Minister are expected to speak both official languages and be understood.
Dion's response to the Throne speech was painful to listen to and very garbled. And we thought the p'tit gars from Shawinigan was bad!
He was consistent, equally bad in both languages but we could understand him quite well.
Posted by: Libby at October 21, 2007 04:25 PM
Steve you said:
Watch for him to cause the government to fall before that December meeting. Then he can lose and resign with some dignity, instead of being forced out without having even fought an election.
That's assuming members of the Liberal caucus will follow Dion into an election by voting non-confidence on one of the Conservative government core policy bills. Those Liberal MPs who vote non-confidence with Dion will become party outcasts if the result of any next election is a Harper majority government. It's like sharing the same gallows with Dion as he goes down in flames.
Do you think any Liberal MP is that faithful and beholden to Dion to follow him into political hell .. other than MP Garth Turner who is now soliciting funds for his re-election campaign from his blog forum regulars ... how low can you get ...???!!!
Posted by: Observer at October 21, 2007 08:03 PM
We an thank Iggy and Bob for saving the LPC from perhaps the 2nd worst defeat they ever suffered federally....as Steve said Dion's wanting to vote down the throne speech has more logic than madness to it if you approach the rationale framing it in Dions enormous loner ego. He has always been the loner and he is used to working alone..he has been successful in this on the past but this doesn't work when you are leading a very factionalized party of cutthroats.
I figure he wanted to force the election for the reasons Steve has enunciated...to get even with his detractors/tormentors and walk away clean without the humiliation of a leadership review....it may happen yet...hope it does...hope Dion's ego is large enough and bruised enough to give us a Harper majority.
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at October 22, 2007 08:59 AM
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