NDP makes its move on Stephane Dion's Liberals, as per the tipping point plan
I have been considering the possibility that Stephen Harper's recent moves have been organized around a plan to push Canadian politics to a tipping point that would dramatically reconfigure Canadian politics. Part of that reconfiguration would be an attack on the Liberal Party from the left by the NDP.
Today, the NDP gave notice that this is their plan as well.
In a previous post, I discussed what I thought would be an important shift in Canadian politics for the NDP to replace the Liberals as the other Canadian federal political party in opposition to the Conservatives.
I've also pointed out that the appointment of Liberal John Manley to the panel to evaluate the future of the mission in Afghanistan might be part of a long term plan to apply pressure at a fracture point in the Liberal Party, causing it to shear into a right-wing portion that would disperse, and a left-wing rump of the Liberal Party focused on such issues as the environment. But that would put this leftist Liberal Party right in competition with the NDP and the Green Party.
Is the plan to let Jack Layton of the NDP do the dirty work of dismembering the Liberal Party?
I have thought it was going in that direction. Today, the NDP has made a move in line with that plan to attack the Liberal Party:
Layton to Dion: abstaining on Harper agenda ‘not leadership’
OTTAWA – NDP Leader Jack Layton today issued a challenge to Stephane Dion for next week’s Throne Speech: “If the Liberal Party believes in anything, order your MPs to show up for Throne Speech votes.”
“Throne Speech votes are a time to show leadership, to make a decision. You either stand with or stand against Mr. Harper’s agenda,” said Layton. “By ordering Liberals to abstain or be absent for Throne Speech votes, Mr. Dion is not showing leadership.”
At a swearing-in ceremony for newly-elected NDP Member of Parliament Tom Mulcair (Outremont), Layton announced that he has ordered each and every NDP MP to be present for all Throne Speech votes in the coming days.
“Throne Speech votes are important events that allow Members of Parliament and political parties to stand up and indicate clearly whether the government is taking the country down the right track – or the wrong track.”
“The NDP has been clear on where it stands. We know what we believe. And after the Throne Speech is delivered, we will make our decision to either vote for it or against it. And we will stand in our places and vote accordingly.”
Layton added, “Mr. Dion cannot hide from the responsibility of deciding whether he is with Mr. Harper or against him by ordering Liberals to remain absent or abstain on Throne Speech votes. That’s not leadership.”
“If Mr. Dion and the Liberal Party are incapable of serving as an opposition to the Harper government, the NDP will,” concluded Layton.
For the NDP, this is win-win-win. If the Liberals vote down next week's Throne Speech, there is an election, and the NDP might finally be able to benefit from strategic voting. Normally in the past, left-of-centre Canadians would vote Liberal even if their sympathies were with the NDP in order to bolster the Liberals and hold back the Conservatives. With a recent poll showing the Liberal collapse continuing unabated (now the Conservatives lead in Ontario), people voting Liberal might decide to shift their vote to the NDP.
Hence the last line of the press release.
If the Liberals allow a Throne Speech to pass, especially a Throne Speech that leaves no doubt that this government believes Kyoto is a dead document, then the NDP can target disappointed Liberal voters and MPs, pointing out that the NDP has never worried about fighting the good fight, even against difficult odds.
And the third win? This press release itself. Already the NDP is moving in on the Liberals from the left even as the right-wing of the Liberal Party watches as John Manley joins a Conservative-created panel.
One more thing. From the banner showing the now well-known profile of Stephane Dion shrugging to the text of the press release that over and over again challenges Stephane Dion personally as opposed the the Liberal Party in general, the NDP is telegraphing its intention to target Stephane Dion and his personal weaknesses and shortfallings in an upcoming campaign. It won't be about a scandal involving some obscure low-level Liberals who aren't even running for office. It will be about the contrast between Jack Layton and Stephane Dion, and who deserves to be the leader of Canada's left.
That has to give the Liberal Party leadership pause. That the Conservatives are well-positioned to win a fall election is clear. So the Liberals have to be preparing for a fight against the NDP. Can Stephane Dion beat Jack Layton? Indeed, how many Liberals around Stephane Dion are unsure of the answer to that question?
If Stephen Harper thinks Jack Layton can take down Stephane Dion and much of the Liberal Party along the way, then he must think of this press release as yet one more push on the tipping point.
Tip away!
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Comments
I've actually thought that this was Stephen Harper's strategy for a very long time. In fact, I think the Conservatives, for quite some time after the last election were trying to help bolster the NDP by reaching out to them on some issues.
I think that the strategy of trying to attack the Liberal's from both sides as an active plan is somewhat dead.
In that sense, I kind of doubt that this was the thinking behind Harper's appointment of John Manley. Rather, it was more simple: John Manley is a Liberal, who's not currently in Stephane Dion's caucus, and as an architect of the initial Afghan mission, has a personal investment in seeing in succeed. Basically Harper picked a Liberal that was most likely to agree with the sentiment of continuing the Afghan mission.
Harper would know this would have secondary advantages such as being able to claim a non-partisan approach to the Afghanistan question in the case of an imminent election.
Adding to the evidence against this being part of a grand plan: John Manley is one of the smarter Liberals. I don't think Harper would be able to pull the bag over his head. I think it's as simple as: here's a Liberal I can agree with on the issues, and a Liberal that can agree with me.
Stephen Harper probably respects John Manley.
Posted by: Mike Brock at October 12, 2007 09:28 PM
Like Mike, I've long thought Harper was reaching out to the NDP in order to squash the LPC. It's sort of cosmically amusing that a ham like Layton is leader -- Broadbent and Harper could bury the Liberals 10 ft under.
I like John Manley a LOT - if he was leader, I'd be re-considering the Liberals for sure.
Posted by: Jason Bo Green at October 12, 2007 11:36 PM
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Tipping point, or vanishing point?
"While none of the Dion staffers was willing to comment on the record, a liberal party insider was quoted as saying there was talk of rushing Mr. Dion back to the "Chretien Center for Mortal Soul Cryonics" located in Shawinigan, Quebec for emergency surgery."
*
Posted by: neo at October 13, 2007 12:09 AM
Liberals are not going anywhere. give you head a shake people !
Posted by: Pissinginthetent.com at October 13, 2007 12:36 AM
"Harper would know this would have secondary advantages such as being able to claim a non-partisan approach to the Afghanistan question in the case of an imminent election"
I see the primary 'secondary' advantage as being that it shows the Canadian population how shallow and hurtfull the current Liberal position is regarding Afghanistan. Having Manley come out in a few months hence and reccommend an extension would look really bad for Dion. A former cabinet minister from the same Government that Dion was also a cabinet minister of, one that showed principle, moral judgement and statesman-like qualities would make Dion look even more weak and desperate to find a wedge issue to hammer the Conservatives...all at the expense of our Soldiers, international reputation and moral responsibility to follow the LIBERAL doctrine of defending those who can't defend themselves.
Yup, this all looks worse and worse for Dion, better for the Conservatives and if Layton, ( may he choke on a chicken bone ASAP) gets a few scraps......so be it. The previous poster who mentioned the Ed Broadbent/Harper team has it right on... Dion would prolly walk away if he was up against those two.
Posted by: arctic_front at October 13, 2007 03:23 AM
Harper- Manley a very practical and honourable TEAM.
Posted by: Jan at October 13, 2007 07:37 AM
Consideriez-vous une autre chose, M. Janke, que c'est vous qui est en train d'arriver au "tipping point".
I am afraid transcribing these inane CRB posts have driven you, Janke, to the tipping point of insanity.
Posted by: at October 13, 2007 12:49 PM
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