Angry in the Great White North

When Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared that he would be treating major legislation that directly supports the upcoming Throne Speech as confidence measures, the Liberals under Stephane Dion were quick to declare that they would not be caught in a trap designed to trip the Liberals into an election that they clearly are not ready for.

Last week, while Stephane Dion was in seclusion following the Jamie Carrol affair, Ralph Goodale took the lead:

Goodale said the Liberals "will not be snookered or bluffed when it comes to the throne speech."

"We'll look at the throne speech and see whether it passes muster once we've seen it. At the same time, we are not going to compromise ourselves on issues and concerns that we think are important and fundamental."

We are not going to compromise on issues we think are fundamental.

So what about the Kyoto protocol? Important right?

Two years ago, Paul Martin invited me to stand up for Canada's environment - the most important challenge of our generation and the next. And I delivered for my Prime Minister, my party and my country.

Not just important but the most important. So that means Stephane Dion is going to deal with climate change sooner rather than later, right?

The new leader of Canada's Liberal Party pledged Sunday to honour the country's commitment to the Kyoto protocol if he unseats Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper in an election expected next year [in 2007].

Dion, who was environment minister under former Prime Minister Paul Martin, is a strong supporter of the Kyoto Protocol -- even naming his dog Kyoto.

"Not only will we honour our [Kyoto] commitment but we will strengthen our economy with more energy capacity, more recycling than waste," Dion said. "We'll have the best plan for energy and climate change that we've ever had."

OK, so Stephane Dion thinks Kyoto is a fundamental element of the Liberal Party platform, and pledged in December 2006 to fight to implement Kyoto in Canada in an election that would be fought in 2007, confident that he could not only cut greenhouse gas emissions by the Kyoto deadline, but make Canada's economy stronger in the process.

So now we are on the verge of having an election in late 2007, and Stephen Harper is reported to be planning to make a strong stand in the Throne Speech -- against Kyoto:

The Conservatives have drafted a throne speech aimed at forcing the Liberal party into a politically embarrassing abandonment of its Kyoto crusade.

Government sources told the Canadian Press that Prime Minister Stephen Harper believes the Liberals are so desperate to avoid an election that they will roll over and accept a throne speech that describes Kyoto climate-change targets as unattainable.

Notice that the Throne Speech is not going to challenge the notion of climate change, but just state that Kyoto is stupid.

That's not specific legislation, that's a fundamental principle that the government will use to drive subsequent legislation.

If the CBC report is correct, Stephane Dion and the Liberal will be asked to vote in favour of this blueprint for government aciton through the next session of parliament.

If the Liberals accept a Throne Speech that states that the position of the government is that Kyoto is unattainable, then the Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act is just so much nonsense:

The purpose of this Act is to ensure that Canada takes effective and timely action to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and help address the problem of global climate change.

Sounds rather sedate, doesn't it? This is a problem and we need to address it. And then maybe some tea afterward.

But it's not like that. This is the planet we're talking about. Mass extinction. The end of civilization. Utter obliteration!

This isn't like deciding to fight an election on something like a GST cut, and then deciding to wait for a better time. People don't like taxes, but an opposition party that is pushing for a tax cut could tell its supporters that the political winds weren't blowing thei right way and so it was decided to let the tax stand for another six months or year or two years.

Taxes are about money. But Kyoto? To borrow a line from Starship Troopers, this is about the species, people!

Stephane Dion, having grabbed the global warming issue as a way to power (hey, maybe he really believes in it too), is now in a corner. He has said global warming is the most important issue facing Canadians. He has said he has the solution. He has said that there is time to implement it as long as he wins an election in 2007. He has said that Canadians will vote for him once he puts himself out there and is better known. He has said that the Liberals are ready to fight an election.

And now he faces a Throne Speech that will say that Kyoto is so much hot air.

He can't say he will let the Throne Speech pass so that he can fight an election at some better time. He has said he can fight one now and that he can win. But more importantly, he has said that this issue -- global warming and Kyoto -- is too grave a problem. Time is running out. Soon Lake Ontario will evaporate or something. Whatever. How can he tell his people that dealing with global warming can wait another six months or a year?

Unless he's willing to admit that as Liberal leader, he can't win a general election in which global warming and Kyoto will figure prominently. Unless he's willing to admit that the Conservative Party plan for the environment will be the plan to follow for the forseeable future.

But he's not brave enough to do that. For what it's worth, I doubt any politician in his shoes would be able to admit those things.

So the prediction is a sad one for Stephane Dion. The Throne Speech will be delivered. Kyoto will be off the table, officially shelved as far as Canada is concerned. A couple of days after, when the vote is taken, Stephane Dion will stand up and declare the government program unacceptable for Canadians and lead the Liberals in voting it down. But he will have made sure that he is leading only the front benchers. The leading MPs of the Liberal Party will go on record as rejecting the government program and in doing so demand that the people be given the opportunity to decide. Looks good for them, right? But behind them, less notable members of the Liberal Party will be making it possible for Stephane Dion to speak passionately about the critical importance of Kyoto by not being present.

Without their votes, the opposition attempt to topple the government on the Throne Speech will fail. Stephane Dion can talk about the most important problem facing the planet and his solution knowing he won't be called out on it.

Better yet. He's going to make sure he won't be called out on it. By sending his own troops home and then positioning himself safely behind a wall of Conservative Party votes, Stephane Dion will thump his chest in righteous (and calculatedly impotent) indignation.

See what I mean? Sad.