Angry in the Great White North

Is Stephane Dion counting his chickens before they've hatched?

By appointing Bob Rae as Foreign Affairs Critic in his Shadow Cabinet, Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion presumably hopes to knit his fractious party together. Though the former leadership rival is not usually considered by most to be the villain in Liberal-on-Liberal infighting stories (Michael Ignatieff is assigned that role), Bob Rae would make a powerful ally.

Or maybe this is a hint of Stephane Dion losing control -- beng forced to put a leadership rival in one of the most prestigious positions in the front opposition benches.

But there lies the problem. Bob Rae won't be sitting in parliament, since he isn't an MP.

A curious arrangement has been set up in which MP Bryon Wilfert (a Dion supporter) will act as the critic in the House. Wilfert will take his cues from Rae, though there is no word on whether a wireless earpiece will play a role in this puppet show.

So why do it? Besides the theory that Stephane Dion is being forced to cede power, the fact is that Bob Rae is the candidate for Toronto Centre. The seat was vacated when Liberal MP Bill Graham retired in July, and unless there is a general election, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will have to call a by-election by December.

This is one of those safe Liberal seats. So one way or another, Bob Rae will be an MP soon after the New Year. Right?

Well...

Putting aside the fact that the by-elections in Quebec have put the notion that any seat is a safe seat into the trash, Bob Rae is up against some tough competition.

The NDP has nominated El-Farouk Khaki as the candidate. Khaki is a lawyer, a human-rights activist, a liberal Muslim, and gay. Canada's largest gay community is located inside this riding, as well as one of Canada's most marginalized immigrant populations in Regent Park.

The Conservatives have nominated Mark Warner. Also a lawyer, Warner immigrated to Canada from Trinidad and Tobago. He was instrumental in Canada's anti-apartheid movement, and serves on the board of the Cabbagetown Youth Centre and the Regent Park Community Health Centre. The St Jamestown area of this riding has a large population of immigrants from Sri Lanka, East Africa, the Philippines, and so on -- 65% of the population in fact.

Bob Rae brings his baggage to the table -- his stint of premier of Ontario continues to dog his political footsteps. Moreover, running for the nomination in Toronto Centre did not go over well with everyone:

But there may not even be a nomination race if Liberal leader Stephane Dion appoints one of his former leadership rivals, Bob Rae or Martha Hall Findlay, to the nomination. That prospect has some would-be candidates fuming, but neither Rae nor Hall Findlay will comment on the possible appointment. They're waiting for Graham to announce his intentions for the riding, which includes the gay village, Rosedale, Cabbagetown and Regent Park.

"Let's take it a day at a time in terms of where the seat will be," Rae told CTV's Question Period last week.

Out lesbian Meredith Cartwright is perhaps best known as the lawyer for Bill Dwyer, whose 1996 case against Metro Toronto won same-sex pension benefits in Ontario. She currently works as an instructor at University Of Toronto's Sexual Diversity Studies program, and is president of the Toronto Centre Women's Club for Ontario Liberals.

Cartwright also makes subtle references to Rae's history, including his failure as Ontario premier to grant same-sex benefits.

"My political consciousness was formed in 1993 over the [failed] same-sex omnibus bill before the Ontario Legislature, and like so many of my peers, I have been working tirelessly to achieve these rights for the LGBT [lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans] community," says Cartwright.

A loyal Liberal, Meredith Cartwright has since endorsed Bob Rae's nomination, but clearly the gay community is split on Rae's nomination. The NDP has given them someone to vote for.

Similarly, the NDP and the Conservatives are both subtlely targeting the immigrant vote but nominating candidates who have been extremely active in immigration issues.

So I'm not sure that the race in Toronto Centre will be so easily won. Inject some of the chaos from the Liberal Party into the mix (especially if the current craziness continues to drag on), and the situation might become very volatile.

If this is a by-election instead of a general election, you have to add in the factor that people will vote against their normal patterns to send a message.

But here's the funny thing. The Liberals aren't stupid. If I'm right, and Toronto Centre is not all that safe, and the NDP and the Conservatives are fielding strong and viable candidates, and Bob Rae still has his history to overcome, then you know that the Liberals know that too.

So putting Bob Rae into Toronto Centre makes a certain desperate sense. Stephane Dion can't afford for Bob Rae to lose. The humiliation to the Liberal Party as a whole would clearly outweigh whatever personal benefit Stephane Dion could realize by having one of his rivals sidelined. So if the Liberals are in trouble across the board, and Bob Rae has his own negatives, and the NDP and the Conservatives are not willing to concede a riding for Bob Rae or any other front-bench Liberal, then Bob Rae has to run in a safe riding. Stephane Dion can't afford for Bob Rae to lose.

The 15,000 vote margin enjoyed by Bill Graham might be all but used up in a bruising Toronto Centre by-election. Any less of a margin might not be enough to sustain a Liberal candidate, even it is Bob Rae.

So Stephane Dion is taking a bit of a gamble by giving Bob Rae the critic's job. Perhaps not a big gamble, but one wonders if the Liberals can afford to take chances like this. If Bob Rae loses in Toronto Centre, Stephane Dion's leadership will be badly damaged, probably moreso than what he suffered when the Liberals lost Outremont.

I'm not even sure Stephane Dion will come out looking all that successful if Bob Rae wins in a squeaker.