It takes leadership to steer towards a tipping point
Stephen Harper has delivered an ultimatum. If the opposition parties pass the Throne Speech, he will treat votes on bills that explicitly enact Throne Speech promises to be confidence votes.
Is he setting a trap for Stephane Dion and the Liberals?
Maybe, but I think Stephen Harper is subtler than that. He's a trained economist, so he is familiar with the concept of the tipping point. I think he recognizes that it won't take much to reach a political tipping point, and that in order to resolve a lot of the problems that have plagued this parliament, we need to reach that point.
And so he is pushing us towards it.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is pushing hard on the Opposition, and on Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion in particular:
The Throne Speech, which is scheduled for Oct. 16, is itself a confidence matter and a vote against it would bring down the Conservative minority.
But, in a rare National Press Theatre news conference, Mr. Harper said that if the opposition supports the Throne Speech, it must also back the legislation that flows from it - suggesting the government will designate a series of bills as confidence matters.
Those bills, which one Tory said will come quickly after the House reopens, will include a fall economic update as well as a number of pieces of legislation designed to toughen criminal-justice laws.
It's not just for sake of pushing. This push has a particular goal. Parliament has been in an unstable configuration for some time. It is time, maybe past well time, to shake things up and reach a new configuration. The expectation is that the new configuration will be more stable and productive, and for that we need to reach a tipping point.
The problems in this parliament are many, but one of them is not that it is a minority government. The minority situation exacerbates the problems, and eliminates the option of dealing with them later. Here is the (partial) list:
- The main opposition party, the Liberals under Stephane Dion, crumbling as factions try to defend or topple Dion.
- The NDP spending its energies on political posturing as part of a plan to replace the Liberals.
- Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois wanting desperately to retire and doing all he can to trigger an election so his final campaign will be against the dying Liberals (and before the Conservatives become too strong).
- A Liberal-dominated Senate becoming the Opposition-by-proxy as the opposition in the House of Commons flails chaotically.
- The chaos in the opposition benches (driven by different motives as described) prompting the opposition to try to rewrite every government bill until it becomes unrecognizable (and utterly unacceptable to the government).
So Stephen Harper makes his Throne Speech ultimatum. But it isn't an ultimatum as such. It is an attempt to tip this unstable system. A tipping point refers to a small inout that can cause a massive shift in an unstable configuration. Stephen Harper has been quiet through much of the last few weeks. Meanwhile the system has progressed further to instability. The Liberals continue to unravel. The Quebec by-elections confirmed what the Quebec provincial elections strongly suggested, and that was that sovereigntist parties are no longer a popular choice in Quebec. That led to the Gilles Duceppe's (denied) decision to retire after one more election. The NDP is feeling frisky after the Quebec by-election win, and has positioned itself as uncompromising on issues like Afghanistan and the environment in order to continue to feed off the left-wing of the Liberal carcass (as well as to fend off a possible surge from the Green Party).
And at this point Stephen Harper changes the stakes of each of the opposition parties' established positions.
Now each of the calculations made by the opposition parties needs to be redone, positions might shift, and a new configuration will be established.
The shift might be quite dramatic, and it could end in a vastly different configuration, hence the "tipping point" metaphor.
The tipping point might not require an election. Duceppe might retire, or Dion might be deposed, or Dion's main rival, Michael Ignatieff, might make a move, and Ignatieff might be forced out himself.
The NDP might have wins in the next set of by-elections, putting the NDP is a stronger (and consequently calmer) position in parliament.
Or there might be an election. The Liberals might complete their fall, and Stephane Dion moves off the political stage. Similarly, Quebec political realignment could marginalize the Bloc Quebecois and at the same time give a boost to the NDP. The result would a parliament that would be calmer -- the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois licking their wounds, if not downright moribund, focused on leadership issues but otherwise a minimal force in politics, and the NDP tempering their ideological radicalism with the practicality that comes with power and responsibility.
The problem is that the end point after reaching a tipping point is hard to predict. Another stable configuration could be reached that is entirely different (Liberals in power? It could happen). Or the new configuration might be only minimally better than the one we have now, or even worse as unlikely as that could be (but after a $300 million election, such a result could have further implications).
So it takes guts to purposely drive a system to a tipping point. Stephen Harper is pushing in that direction. Meanwhile Stephane Dion and his Liberals are spinning hard to avoid a reckoning:
The Liberals appear to be manoeuvring away from Prime Minister Stephen Harper's election trap by vowing not to be held hostage by the government.
Harper said this week that opposition parties are not in a position to support the Oct. 16 throne speech and then obstruct legislation that flows from that document.
But Liberal House leader Ralph Goodale said it is "illegitimate" to assert that a government's throne speech "pre-authorizes" ensuing government bills.
Interesting contrast. Leadership versus something that falls far short of leadership.
Having that other thing that pretends to be leadership in the nominal position of heading the opposition is creating a lot of problems. Time to tip things -- the likelihood is that whatever happens at the end will be an improvement.
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Comments
The only thing wrong about pushing to the tipping point is that we live in Canada and because of this we are doomed because a great percentage of the population will forever vote liberal. Conservatives have in the past rapped the knuckles of their party, we are not afraid to cast a vote in order to drive home a point. Liberals have ensured, with their immigration policies, that thirty percent of this country will vote "Liberal" until hell freezes over. They wouldn't care if Goofy, Curly, Larry, Moe, or Mickey (pardon me they already have) was leading the party, they'd still vote Liberal. As mentioned on other blogs "Liberalism is a mental disorder" indeed, with thirty percent of Canadians suffering from this disease, we are doomed until this thirty percent either come to their senses or become eligible for the Darwin Awards.
Posted by: Antenor at October 5, 2007 03:35 PM
We may actually be reaching a tipping point where the liberalism is no longer the default position of Canadians. I talk to people of all walks in life. The like and respect Mr. Harper. Bring on an election!
Posted by: Paul at October 5, 2007 04:32 PM
Political chaos theory ?? Elections can be chaotic events that eventually evolve back into a stable orderliness. Now the question is will Canadians realize that only a majority government will provide them with the order they so much desire??
If Canadians continue to elect minority governments, and eventually it is recognized that new multiculti groups are resisting change and throwing Canada into repeated political disorder, the country will suffer a painful realization that:
TORONTO IS NOT CANADA
Posted by: Observer at October 5, 2007 05:51 PM
So your contention is that Harper is not setting a trap? Then why the Conservatives are ramping up for an October election? And why is Baird signing a lease on a campaign office (as reported by Don Martin yesterday on Politics)?
Harper has never been as subtle as you make him out to be. In fact if there's one politician he seems to be modelling himself after it is Chretien (see Jim Travers most recent column in the Star). Harper is focused on one thing -- gaining power. He smells blood and, like Chretien, can't help but seize the opportunity. He wants an election and he wants to be able to blame the Liberals for having to call one. Tying acceptance of the Throne Speech to subsequent legislation. is using a sledghammer to drive home his desire for an election. Nothing subtle about it.
Posted by: Kim Feraday at October 6, 2007 11:22 AM
I think you're over-analyzing here, Steve. Harper knows he'll whip Dion in an election, and he doesn't want the Libs to have time to get rid of him and replace him with the more competent Iggy-Rae combo. He's practicing bad-ass hardball politics here, nothing subtle - and there's nothing wrong with that, either! Gotta love that a Canadian Conservative, finally, is not a big wimp or grand compromiser.
Posted by: NCF TO at October 6, 2007 09:06 PM
"So it takes guts to purposely drive a system to a tipping point. Stephen Harper is pushing in that direction."
That's one thing I like about Stephen Harper: He's got guts and he's willing to call the bluff of all the political and media poseurs who pretend to care about Canada and pretend to care about what's good for the majority of Canadians. What they actually care about is just their own, pet agendas, which ratchet up the amount of money in their and their friends' bank accounts.
I'm sick of this kind of politicking in Canada, and sincerely hope that PMSH's ploy to flush out the self-serving poseurs on the Hill work. My family, all Canadians, and I have been held hostage by the Liberals', NDPs', and Blocs' Banana Republic tactics and agendas for far too long.
Onward and upward, Mr. Prime Minister! And when you get to a fork in the road, go straight ahead.
Posted by: 'been around the block at October 8, 2007 12:33 PM
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