Angry in the Great White North

La Presse is reporting that Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quebecois, is planning to quit politics altogether after the next general election.

I thought about the implications of this news of Gilles Duceppe's near-resignation, how it changed my thinking that the Bloc Quebecois would try to avoid forcing an election in the fall, and the implications for the other parties in an election.

But now Gilles Duceppe is denying that he plans to retire:

Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe, whose party is slipping in the polls, today denied a report that said the next federal election campaign would be his last.

The French-language newspaper La Presse reported that Mr. Duceppe, 60, had told confidants he would only lead the party into one more campaign.

"As I have said a great many times ... I have never had a career plan," Mr. Duceppe said in a statement.

"The only thing I'm focusing on is the prospect of an election campaign that could begin as early as this autumn. Should that happen, I will be leading the Bloc Quebecois and we will win."

Well, to be fair to La Presse, this is what they've already reported -- that Gilles Duceppe will fight one more campaign.

As I said in my previous post, the news that Gilles Duceppe is planning to quit after one more campaign (presumably sooner rather than later, especially if the Bloc Quebecois does poorly) would have a significant negative impact on any Bloc Quebecois election effort. Voters already suspicious that a vote for the BQ is a wasted vote -- sovereignty has faded to near invisibility, the Parti Quebecois in Quebec has been reduced to third-party status, other federal parties in Ottawa essentially ignore the BQ as much as possible -- are certainly not going to be impressed by a plea for a vote from a politician who has all but quit. That will affect the voting for all Bloc MPs. I'm sure Bloc MPs were astounded, and then upset, when La Presse reported on Gilles Duceppe's secret plan to quit.

So unfortunately for Gilles Duceppe, everyone will look at this denial and conclude that this is exactly what Gilles Duceppe would say. Given the importance of keeping such a plan quiet means Gilles Duceppe had no choice but to issue a denial. So will people believe Gilles Duceppe? I doubt it. And I think the Bloc Quebecois has a serious problem on its hands. Unless Gilles Duceppe is able to compel La Presse to retract the story, all his denials will be worthless.

So there are two questions:

1. Does the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois think that the report in La Presse will seriously hurt an election campaign?
2. If so, will the leadership attack La Presse in order to bury the story?