Angry in the Great White North

In my piece about the Bloc Quebecois bluffing about forcing an election, my conclusion was based on the assumption that Gilles Duceppe was not ready to leave politics. To force an election now, when all the indicators suggest that the Bloc Quebecois is going to fare poorly, would end Duceppe's career. So, I figured, the Bloc Quebecois would avoid actually voting against the Throne Speech.

I have to backtrack now, because it appears that Gilles Duceppe has already left the building:

The leader of the Bloc Quebecois, Gilles Duceppe, is preparing his departure from politics. Mr Duceppe has confided in certain close colleagues that he will lead the Bloc for the last time in next federal election.

First elected to the House of Commons in 1990 in the Laurier–Sainte-Marie by-election, Mr Duceppe has also confirmed his intention to quit the Bloc Quebecois after the next federal election to the leader of the Parti Quebecoic, Pauline Marois, his sovereigntist ally in Quebec, La Presse has learned.

With nothing personal to lose, and perhaps looking forward to ending his political career and moving on with his life, Gilles Duceppe might very well be willing to drive the BQ bus over the cliff, taking the rest of the BQ caucus with him.

This news makes Gilles Duceppe the ultimate lame duck leader. Indeed, it is not clear why voters in his own riding would vote for him, knowing that if he were to win, a by-election would soon follow as he is planning to quit anyway. Will the BQ even put Gilles Duceppe's face on election material -- signs, brochures, and so on?

Plus there is the fundamental existential question. If sovereignty is so damned important, why is Gilles Duceppe giving up? Has he given up on sovereignty? Should we even believe him if he continues to profess his faith in the "project"?

This news, though, is particularly bad for Stephane Dion. Gilles Duceppe was Dion's closest ally in Quebec.

If the Bloc Quebecois is hurt by this news, you might think the Liberals in Quebec would benefit. But in today's dynamic, that is not the case. In the past, BQ and the Liberals have propped each other up. The strength of the other gives each a reason to rally the votes. But if the BQ collapse continues, and is exacerbated by news of Gilles Duceppe's impending departure, both the BQ and the Liberals in Quebec will shed votes. Great masses of voters who voted only for the Liberals or for the BQ because of their distrust of the other side will now be free to vote for other parties on other issues.

The recent Quebec by-elections manifested that effect, and the results were telling. One BQ riding goes Conservative. One Liberal riding goes NDP. The third riding was held by the BQ, but barely, with the Conservatives nearly snatching it away.

In a full blown general election, with the BQ led by the lame duck leader, and the Liberal collapse under Stephane Dion in full swing, that third riding might have tipped. And many other ridings as well.

Is there going to be an election? I don't see Gilles Duceppe delaying. He wants out and he says he'll go after the next election. Now that the cat's out of the bag, delaying that election makes even less sense. If I was Gilles Duceppe, I wouldn't want to be spending much time with my caucus, surrounded by people impatient for me to go now that they know I don't plan on staying much longer.

And this is just more bad news for Stephane Dion.

Hat tip to Bourque