La Presse is reporting that Gilles Duceppe is planning to quit politics after the next federal election. Now that Duceppe's intentions are public knowledge, the odds of an election have gone up, and Stephane Dion has to face fighting an election in Quebec without his closest ally in a position to help.
In my piece about the Bloc Quebecois bluffing about forcing an election, my conclusion was based on the assumption that Gilles Duceppe was not ready to leave politics. To force an election now, when all the indicators suggest that the Bloc Quebecois is going to fare poorly, would end Duceppe's career. So, I figured, the Bloc Quebecois would avoid actually voting against the Throne Speech.
I have to backtrack now, because it appears that Gilles Duceppe has already left the building:
The leader of the Bloc Quebecois, Gilles Duceppe, is preparing his departure from politics. Mr Duceppe has confided in certain close colleagues that he will lead the Bloc for the last time in next federal election.
First elected to the House of Commons in 1990 in the Laurier–Sainte-Marie by-election, Mr Duceppe has also confirmed his intention to quit the Bloc Quebecois after the next federal election to the leader of the Parti Quebecoic, Pauline Marois, his sovereigntist ally in Quebec, La Presse has learned.
With nothing personal to lose, and perhaps looking forward to ending his political career and moving on with his life, Gilles Duceppe might very well be willing to drive the BQ bus over the cliff, taking the rest of the BQ caucus with him.
This news makes Gilles Duceppe the ultimate lame duck leader. Indeed, it is not clear why voters in his own riding would vote for him, knowing that if he were to win, a by-election would soon follow as he is planning to quit anyway. Will the BQ even put Gilles Duceppe's face on election material -- signs, brochures, and so on?
Plus there is the fundamental existential question. If sovereignty is so damned important, why is Gilles Duceppe giving up? Has he given up on sovereignty? Should we even believe him if he continues to profess his faith in the "project"?
This news, though, is particularly bad for Stephane Dion. Gilles Duceppe was Dion's closest ally in Quebec.
If the Bloc Quebecois is hurt by this news, you might think the Liberals in Quebec would benefit. But in today's dynamic, that is not the case. In the past, BQ and the Liberals have propped each other up. The strength of the other gives each a reason to rally the votes. But if the BQ collapse continues, and is exacerbated by news of Gilles Duceppe's impending departure, both the BQ and the Liberals in Quebec will shed votes. Great masses of voters who voted only for the Liberals or for the BQ because of their distrust of the other side will now be free to vote for other parties on other issues.
The recent Quebec by-elections manifested that effect, and the results were telling. One BQ riding goes Conservative. One Liberal riding goes NDP. The third riding was held by the BQ, but barely, with the Conservatives nearly snatching it away.
In a full blown general election, with the BQ led by the lame duck leader, and the Liberal collapse under Stephane Dion in full swing, that third riding might have tipped. And many other ridings as well.
Is there going to be an election? I don't see Gilles Duceppe delaying. He wants out and he says he'll go after the next election. Now that the cat's out of the bag, delaying that election makes even less sense. If I was Gilles Duceppe, I wouldn't want to be spending much time with my caucus, surrounded by people impatient for me to go now that they know I don't plan on staying much longer.
And this is just more bad news for Stephane Dion.
Hat tip to Bourque
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The Libranos are hamburger in the bezt election....and they know it...the bi-elections were a microcosm of what will occur in the east....liberals will lose seats to either Tories or dippers.
As you said before Steve...the LPC represents nothing but their own greed and ambition...they have no redeeming civil qualities and their vision for Canada is clouded by their own cupidity....they are a power/wealth brokerage cartel.
The Dips...well they remain in far left field isolated from maonstream Canadians and the greens are not even functioning on this plane of existence....the Tories have become uninspired policy-wise but are committed to being a GOOD, uncontroversial care taker government....so the old saying is true as we go to the polls...
"in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king"...only Harper has one eye open here.
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at October 2, 2007 08:47 AM
I find this analysis fascinating. My own personal thoughts as a person of French Canadian decent is that the Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien knew exactly what they were doing when they alienating Quebec by repatriating the constitution without including Quebec. Both of these men understood intimately what it took to keep Quebec permanently upset with the ROC. I think they were willing to risk the breakup of the country to stay in power.
The only times in history that the Liberals lost power was when Quebec voted Conservative. The Liberals had to give Quebec an alternative to voting Conservative. They set up the conditions for a totally Quebec based federal party . This guaranteed that as long as the Liberals could keep Ontario happy and Quebec angry with the rest of the country the Liberals would stay in power.
I had this brainstorm one day after Jean Chretien was elected for the third time despite the overwhelming evidence that this was not an honorable man. I remember reading the article in the National Post about Shawinigan, Jean Chretien's unsavory friends and business dealings in regards to the golf course that he owned. I thought that would be the end of the corrupt Liberal regime. Then when the story of Jean Chretien's attempts to intervene with the operation of the BDC and the subsequent treatment of Francois Beaudoin broke I thought the Liberals were finished. I was totally shocked that Canadians were capable of voting for someone whose moral compass was so off balance. I really don't understand the voters of Ontario. As it turned out these incidences of the misuse of the taxpayers dollars were just the tip of the iceberg.
I find it ironic that one of Mr. Chretien's last acts was to totally hamstring his own party by making changes in the way the parties are allowed to raise money. He had to have been aware of what he was doing. To me this is almost like the acts of an abusive husband who wants to do away with his wife because he can't have her.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has made it palatable again to be part of Canada. He treats the people of Quebec with respect . Much to the dismay of the Liberals , this will allow Quebec to once again have a real voice in this country. Prime Minister Harper's understanding of the Quebec mindset is making the Bloq irrelevant.
I live in Saskatchewan but my roots are French Canadian. My paternal Grandfather's ancestors came to Quebec in the 1600s. My other 3 Grandparents came from France. I understand the French approach to life. We are proud, hardworking, honest ,independent people with a long memory.
We can only hope that Gille Duceppe bows out and allows the country to heal under the stewardship of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Posted by: Rita at October 2, 2007 09:12 AM
I'll be interested to see if there's any sort of spill-over effect into Ontario. Historically, the LPC (Ontario) has made sure the party is lead by a Quebecer. On one hand they perpetually alienate Quebec Nationalists and then on the other hand put forward a Quebec Federalist as PM. This has been the reason d'etre of Liberals in Ontario. To divide Quebec to benefit themselves. Now that this tactic won't work (see last election and Paul Martin trying to claim it was a "referendum election" and Quebecs rejection of Stephane Dion) will the Liberals adapt & evolve or become extinct?
Posted by: Reid at October 2, 2007 09:33 AM
I had predicted that Duceppe was toast after Harper trumped him in the "Quebec is a nation within a united Canada".. vote. I was right albeit I thought it would have happened sooner.
I wonder if some Bloc's would push Duceppe out before an election. Some of them must think their own seat is unsafe if an election were called very soon. So they prop up the gov't and elect a new leader in a snap convention. Unlikely, but the option of heading into a campaign with a leader who has already announced his retirement seems rediculous.
Posted by: David at October 2, 2007 09:42 AM
Hey Janke: Are you now receiving (or have you ever received) payments from either the Conservative Party (or groups/individuals affiliated with the Party) or the Government of Canada for "communications consulting" or any other related services?
Just curious.
Posted by: at October 2, 2007 09:53 AM
Hey Janke: Are you now receiving (or have you ever received) payments from either the Conservative Party (or groups/individuals affiliated with the Party) or the Government of Canada for "communications consulting" or any other related services?
Not a dime. No contracts. Nothing. Not from the CPC or any group whatsoever. I'm not even a member of the CPC.
And please, call me Steve.
Posted by: Steve Janke at October 2, 2007 10:06 AM
Thanks Steve (ahem). What about the Government of Canada - have/had any "consulting" contracts with them a la Tintor?
Posted by: at October 2, 2007 10:20 AM
"And please, call me Steve."
LOL. Good retort to the rude Liberals/communists.
Posted by: jckirlan at October 2, 2007 10:20 AM
Now Steve, isn't THAT a typical Liberal thought. Why, you MUST be an undercover Tory operative. You simply CANNOT be a mere average citizen, blogging with a Conservative bent.
Man, the arrogance of Liberals never ceases to amaze, n'est pas?
Steve, do you think that there would be any chance that Duceppe would have a change of heart - again?
Posted by: Lycan Stark at October 2, 2007 10:21 AM
Can Mr Duceppe not just resign ?
Or am I to understand that we may very well be thrown into an election that, according to the polls, most Canadians do not want. That, again according to the polls, will change absolutely nothing and will cost us -what, 300 million dollars ? just because Mr Duceppe wants a good excuse to quit ?
I realize that the Bloc and its supporters have no use for Canada and see nothing wrong with making us needlessly squander enough money to build three new hospitals (or one left-wing human rights museum) but when are we going to wake up and put a stop to this nonsense ?
If this can be proven, we should make the bugger pay for the election.
Oh, and to Mr. Anonymous at 9:53 AM - in case you missed it, this is a conservative-leaning site. I don't recall Steve Janke ever trying to suggest otherwise (unlike the mainstream media).
You want non-partisan ? Get a dog. Conservatives (for now anyways) are allowed to have a public forum too.
So just deal with it. OK ?
Posted by: up north at October 2, 2007 10:26 AM
You want non-partisan ? Get a dog.
The Liberals did. His name is Kyoto. With all the Liberals in Quebec dropping like flies, perhaps Dion plans in running him as a candidate in Quebec.
Posted by: Lycan Stark at October 2, 2007 10:34 AM
Thanks Steve (ahem). What about the Government of Canada - have/had any "consulting" contracts with them a la Tintor?
I don't mind you asking. No contracts with the government of Canada, with the PMO, with the CPC, the Frasier Institute, the Freemasons, the Illuminati, the Skull and Bones Society, the aliens who run the IMF from their base at Area 51, and so on and so forth.
I can make a simple blanket statement. The only contracts I have ever signed with regards to the blog are ones with RSS feed aggregators like Newstex for delivery of content. The content is the same stuff you read on the blog. That's it. Nothing really mysterious. Indeed the only contracts I have ever signed are loan agreements with the bank, credit card agreements, work NDAs (private not government-related), some legal stuff with regards to the Herle thing, and a marriage license (just one of those), as well as those RSS things I've already mentioned. I'm pretty sure that's a complete list. If I missed anything, trust me, it's not significant, and certainly not political.
Posted by: Steve Janke at October 2, 2007 10:35 AM
Wow, events are moving fast, another one against Dion ! You would think that the BLOC caucus would now replace Duceppe with a temporary leader from within. And how could he justify people voting for him in his own riding ?
Anyway, I think the campaign strategy for the Liberals in the next election is now clear. Keep trumpeting the Trudeau vision of an active central government. This should still play well in parts of Ontario, Montreal and the Atlantic. Bob Rae laid down a marker in yesterday's Globe, writing against limiting the federal spending powers.
The Liberal caucus should also take the leadership matter into their own hands, and vote internally to replace Dion with Ignatieff. Their argument being, f**k the LPC Constitution, forget the mandate Dion has from the LPC delegates, we are fighting an existential battle next election, and we need the most Truedeau-esq leader as our spokesman--Ignatieff.
Posted by: Calgary Junkie at October 2, 2007 10:40 AM
"And please, call me Steve.
Posted by: Steve Janke at October 2, 2007 10:06 AM"
Wrong, Call me Mr Janke.
Show some respect even if he is a F**up Fiberal
Posted by: Pissedoff at October 2, 2007 12:34 PM
Curious, umm, Warren: Are you now receiving (or have you ever received) payments from either the Ontario Liberal Party (or groups/individuals affiliated with the Party) or the Government of Ontario or the Ontario Lottery Corp for "communications consulting" or any other related services?
Just curious.
Posted by: Offal Stuff at October 2, 2007 12:58 PM
"Hey Janke: Are you now receiving (or have you ever received) payments from either the Conservative Party (or groups/individuals affiliated with the Party)"
Another pooch pumping Librano that engages in projection...assuming everyone is as degenerate at they are...frick you people don't need a time in political limbo...you time on the rock pile...oh ya that's right you reformed penal institutes into librano voting blocks...easy to bribe Convicts with color TV, condons, free K-Y, needles and sex change ops....stinkin' red scum.
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at October 2, 2007 04:43 PM
WL- Maybe that's why they gave prisoners the right to vote - can't say they're not forward looking!
Skal!
Posted by: Mjolnir at October 2, 2007 05:43 PM
This news makes Gilles Duceppe the ultimate lame duck leader. Indeed, it is not clear why voters in his own riding would vote for him, knowing that if he were to win, a by-election would soon follow as he is planning to quit anyway.To take it a step further, why would anyone in Quebec vote for the BQ under Duceppe? Anything he says on the hustings would have to raise the question in voters' minds, "How can we know the BQ will follow through on that promise under the new (and as-yet-unknown) leader they'll be getting shortly after the election?"
Also, would it make sense to allow Duceppe to participate in the Leaders' debate? On the one hand, he's leading the BQ through the election, and thus is entitled to speak; on the other hand, he has no intention of leading them after it, which brings us back to my previous question...
Posted by: Tom at October 2, 2007 10:58 PM
Duceppe seems to want to take the BQ down in flames.
Posted by: Brian in Calgary at October 5, 2007 11:33 AM
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