Angry in the Great White North

A close confidant of Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion says the Liberals should not force an election this fall:

The Liberals are “never afraid of a fight” but should not pull the plug on the minority Conservative government to trigger a fall election, says Toronto-area MP Bryon Wilfert, a close confidant of Opposition leader Stephane Dion.

Wilfert proposes an unusual tactic of partial abstention by the Liberals if they have the deciding vote among the opposition parties on a confidence motion over the government’s Oct. 16 speech from the throne. “We could register our displeasure without bringing down the government,” he said.

“If you’re going to pull the plug, I strongly believe you do it on your own terms when you have that luxury, rather than falling into some kind of trap. We do have the luxury as the official Opposition of deciding when we want to bring them down. And I personally believe, and I’m not alone, that this is not the time to bring them down.”

Partial abstention?

The Conservatives have 126 seats, and can count on the support of independents Andre Arthur and Bill Casey, for 128 votes in support of the Throne Speech.

The Bloc Quebecois has 49 seats, and can count on the support of independent Louise Thibault, for 50 votes against the Throne Speech.

The NDP has 30 seats, for 30 votes against the Throne Speech.

That means 128 for and 80 against. More than 48 votes against, and the Throne Speech is defeated and we're in an election.

The Liberals hold 96 seats. If Stephane Dion decides that going into an election would be a mistake, he can't afford more than 48 Liberals to vote against the Throne Speech. Call it 45 to be safe. That would mean 51 Liberal MPs, of 53% of the caucus, would have to agree to be absent from the vote.

So my question is this: Can Stephane Dion count on 51 Liberal MPs to do as they're told? Does he even know which 51 MPs to trust? Remember that a general election loss is the surefire way to get rid of Stephane Dion as Liberal leader. More than a few Liberals are not satisfied with the political effectiveness of Stephane Dion or with Stephane Dion's people.

It might only take a handful of Liberal MPs to stand up against the Throne Speech during a vote to ruin Stephane Dion's plan, should he try to avoid an election and so hang on as leader.

The icing on the cake is that a rebellion by Liberal MPs to force an election in open defiance of Stephane Dion would guarantee a Liberal loss and the end of Stephane Dion's leadership, since such a humiliation would dog Dion throughout a campaign.

Could it happen? Of course, it's possible. Will it happen? I doubt it. It's just too crazy. Still, it says something of the Liberal Party that it might be worth considering the possibility.