Dion has obviously not yet advised his caucus how to vote on the Throne Speech, and he is playing his cards close to his vest. After the Throne Speech is read, he will tell his caucus how he wants them to vote, and not before.

If the caucus disagrees, Dion will just tell them he will consider it a vote on his leadership and resign.

If the government calls an election as a result of the vote, that would mean the Liberals do not have a leader, and Ignatieff as 'deputy leader' would have to step into the bloody breach..!!!

Hmmmm ......

Posted by: Observer at September 28, 2007 05:58 PM

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So, you have both Wilfert and Cherniak floating the idea of avoiding a fall election. They are both closely associated with Team Dion.

So, that either means they're bluffing on Dion's part, or they're tipping off which way Dion is leading.

I lean towards the latter, mostly based on what I wrote here.

There is just no reason for an election now. If Dion forced one, he and his party would be punished.

Politicians always try to live for another day. Harper might be hit by scandal or an economic downturn. Dion might actually look good by then, especially with members of his own party.

It's in Dion's interests to wait. Yes, he would be weak. But he'd still be alive and removing and replacing him is still much easier said than done, at least until we have an election.

Posted by: Dennis (Second Thots) at September 28, 2007 06:13 PM

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btw, at the risk of providing two links to my own blog in the same post on someone else's blog (thanks, Steve ;)), here is a summary of my thoughts, given Wilfert's and Cherniak's position on a fall election.

This, of course, is separate from the question of whether or not Dion has control over his caucus. My guess is that he'll find enough loyal Liberals to sit down when they're told, or at least question the loyalty of anyone who even thinks about not doing what they're told.

Posted by: Dennis (Second Thots) at September 28, 2007 06:37 PM

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Well, first in line to support Dion will be Martha Hall-Findlay and his Kingmaker, Gerard Kennedy. There will be enough for his life support, there are too many of them struggling to pay off the last election and not much in donations coming in.

Dion is the Liberal sacrificial whatever and Findlay and Kennedy are done in as well. Iggy and Rae will be the next casualties.

Posted by: Libby at September 28, 2007 07:12 PM

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MP Garth Turner playing it safe with duct tape:

"Could you please comment on these difficult events that are creating real problems for Dion and the Liberal party?

No. — Garth"

Posted by: Harry at September 28, 2007 07:14 PM

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You got that right, Libby. The genesis of Liberal ills begins with Chretien changing party funding rules, and Martin assassinating Chretien twice ... for leadership and then Gomery ... and when Martin abdicated, all the other A-team Liberals fled the ship for secure jobs, leaving the Liberal party to nondescript scrubs and assorted rabble.

Who in their right mind would join the Liberal party ... other than Garth and appointed women?! A few more shakes of the Dion leadersnip, and maybe the house of cards will collapse.

Surely Dion cannot survive the internal attacks and subsequent mess that must be saturating the Liberal party at the grassroots level. They fail to raise funds and their organization is collapsing.

Something has got to give, before the Throne Speech on or about October 16th.

Posted by: Observer at September 28, 2007 07:26 PM

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My &&& is that the Dionkeys force an election.Basically how else is Dion going to neutralize the internal dissention within the liberal ranks and assert his control( rally around the flag boys).The call to battle and defeat of the Harperites let alone the victors promise of a return to the land of gravy/graft/power will be to much for any liberal to ignore."We must return to power as soon as possible"

Posted by: greyburr at September 28, 2007 07:37 PM

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I would split my pants if more than a few Tories came down with a 24 hour flu the day that the Throne Speech is voted on and couldn't possibly get out of bed to vote with the government.

Dion is running out of works in which to have spanners thrown into.
His leadership has been an abject mess and just seems to be getting worse and worse compounded by more and more problems. He's simply surrounded by enemies on all sides.

Posted by: alan at September 28, 2007 07:39 PM

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I posted on this this morning when all the west was abed
Dion Not The Cause

Got an interesting comment from a reader, what if the Grits decide not to want and the CPC to want an election. Drop a sweeeet SFTH. Well, maybe the Tories get the flu maybe 40 of them so they're down to 86.
Heck, maybe the only ones who vote are the Bloc and the NDP. WOuldn't that be fun.

Posted by: Lemon at September 28, 2007 07:43 PM

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All things considered I would hope that the Conservatives play straight and have every available member in the house to support the government. I also hope that the throne speach is mushy middle so that the opposition in voting against it alienates a large percentage of the voters. I don't think that the average voter wants this government defeated the liberals will be reduced to a rump party if they do not heed the voter's desire.

Posted by: joe at September 28, 2007 08:17 PM

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If Dion votes against the budget but arranges for over half his caucus to be 'sick' the day of the vote he will look like a total hypocrite and will lose what is left of the respect that the general public has for him (and especially the left!).

For months he has been railing on about how terrible Harper is, how awful it is that we have a Conservative government, how the Tories are literally a force of destruction in the world... and then he's going to arrange for their survival? Excuse me while I laugh. If the Tories really are as bad as Dion has been claiming he should be rejoicing that finally all the left wing parties are united in opposition to the despotic Harper regime.

No, Dion has painted himself into a corner from which he cannot escape. If the tries to avoid a fall election in this manner, he may survive the month as Liberal leader, but the Left will crucify him. Layton and Duceppe will point out that while they supported the Tories on issues of principle, Dion was satisfied with registering symbolic opposition only. A true leader, they will say, would stand on his principles and take down the government.

Posted by: southernontarioan at September 28, 2007 08:36 PM

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Was it crazy when Harper abstained on the 2005 budget?

Posted by: Jason Cherniak at September 28, 2007 09:07 PM

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Is there ever going to be a better time for the Conservatives to have an election than now? Never mind the polls. Has anyone even seen a poll since the disaster in Quebec? The pollsters are curiously quiet. I hope Harper brings in a tough Throne Speech that will choke the Liberals if they plan on abstaining.
I think Harper's little speech about possibly another minority government was to lull the opposition into a false sense of security.

Posted by: muttsrus at September 28, 2007 09:29 PM

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The Liberals have no money and their organization is a mess. The only reason to have an election now is that's the precondition to forcing a leadership review. But while many in the party might favor that, the MP's who'd have to put their seats on the line behind a flailing leader might think otherwise.

Posted by: GDW at September 28, 2007 09:55 PM

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"We must go back to power as soon as possible"

This is the first vote in a long time where the Liberal Party of Canada will have a real chance to bring down the Government. Every other confidence vote, we've had either the Bloc support us, or the NDP abstaining on the Afghan vote and then putting forward their own motion to withdraw.

For Dion to show the "leadership" that he claims to have, then he MUST, without excuse, vote against the Speech from the Throne. He said, "We must go back to power as soon as possible". "ASAP"... this is the first opportunity he's had to make good on that commitment, so what is he going to do?

Is he going to deliver on this longstanding commitment, or is he going to chicken out, and prove, once again, that he is "Not a leader"?

Posted by: Christian Conservative at September 28, 2007 10:01 PM

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Maybe some Bloq MP's will come down with the flu as well. Or if the NDP are smarter than I think they are, they will vote for the Throne speech. Why? They need time to get some good candidates into Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. If they want to be the offical opposition, they need good people in place, that takes time. Plus they can watch the Liberal party eat their own until '09. Can only help the NDP.

Posted by: Hunter at September 28, 2007 10:35 PM

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Jason your argument is not convincing because the circumstances are different. Martin had 'just' won another term as PM and Harper had an obligation to make sure that Parliament worked. Harper could not support the government because he felt the budget was poor but was obligated by the will of the people to abstain to make sure it passed. It was what Martin successfully campaigned on.

Harper actively tried to bring down the government during its second year. Similarly, Dion has no obligation to ensure the Harper government survives since it has already passed the average age for which minority governments last.

Not to mention the fact that Dion has been railing for months, years maybe that the Harper government is so terrible, so awful, so harmful, that he needs to be taken down as quickly as possible. Could you imagine Harper in the fall of 2006 deciding to abstain when Layton and Duceppe agreed to take Martin down? No! Why? Because he spent the whole spring ranting about how terrible the Liberals were, to back down then would mean he wasn't serious about it to begin with and only wanted to use the opportunity to take power. If Dion backs down like this, he'll be showing the same opportunism. And as Harper found, being labeled as an opportunist is almost as bad as being corrupt.

Posted by: southernontarioan at September 29, 2007 12:17 AM

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Was it crazy when Harper abstained on the 2005 budget?

Posted by: Jason Cherniak at September 28, 2007 09:07 PM
..........................

It will be crazy if Dion or part of the Liberal party abstains on the 2006 Throne Speech, and once again proving that Dion is NOT a leader.

Posted by: Observer at September 29, 2007 04:56 AM

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Christian Conservative, agree Dion is in a bind given his statement "we must get back to power as soon as possible". The statement also smacks of the arrogance of the Liberals and their attitude of divine right to rule. That attitude remains even through corruption and lies.

The biggest lie ever told was by Chretien on the scrapping of the GST. He was caught on taped video saying "ITS GONE", in answer to the question what about scrapping the GST. HE STILL DENIED SAYING IT.

Posted by: Libby at September 29, 2007 07:24 AM

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The Quebec byelections changed the status quo in the Liberal Party. That changes the internal party dynamic. The one guaranteed event is that Dion will be the Liberal leader at the next election. How will the Liberals deal with that reality?

Dion has begun making some of the right moves through his proxies Wilfert/Cherniak (Steve, isn't it interesting that Dion's own proxy is showing up here up on your blog to help float this trial balloon?) but failing at many others (Garneau, Leduc, Carroll). This is Dion's only move, abstain, but Jason is making the wrong analogy. This isn't like the post 2004 election/pre 2005 budget time period. This is like the pre 2004 election time period. Harper was the new & first Conservative leader. He was giving the rhetoric that an election was necessary. The Liberals didn't want an election but the polls were more favourable to them then the Conservatives. There were many in the Conservative Party who felt that an election was necessary ASAP so that Harper would lose and then they could get a better leader like Lord or Harris. Harper was seen as unelectable or unable to get a majority. Get the election over with and then move on. They felt that the election would return nearly the status quo, so there was little to lose and they would get rid of Harper in the process. Similar forces are now on the ascendency in the Liberal Party. The Liberal versions of Joe Clark and Carole Jamieson are publicly sabotaging Dion.

What Harper needed then and what Dion needs now is time. Events & the Prime Minister didn't cooperate then, it remains to be seen whether Dion will be more lucky.

During the 2004 election, Harper over-acheived, but his party under-acheived. This pretty much killed the internal revolt and the rebels began leaving because they knew they couldn't wrest control of the leadership from Harper. I think it is clear that during the next election, the Liberal Party is going to under-acheive. Everybody, EVERYBODY, knows that during an election now Dion will under-acheive. He's not ready for prime time.

Dion has fewer than 25 MPs in his caucus he can count on to abstain. Of the remaining 71 MPs, I don't think there is a single MP who is in danger of losing his seat in the upcoming election. What have they got to lose by voting against the Throne Speech? Only the leadership of Stephane Dion. Harper is luring those 71 MPs into an election by predicting the status quo after an election. They have the perfect cover: "I could not endure one more minute of this @$%#% Harper government. I had to vote with my conscience against the Throne Speech." I wonder how many Liberal MPs would say that right now on the record? If it's more than 48, we are going to have an election soon.

Posted by: PlaidShirt at September 29, 2007 07:48 AM

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I M da leeder, and u will do as I tel u, or I wil, wil, fart in your general direction!

Posted by: Roberto at September 29, 2007 10:17 AM

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Roberto must have wandered over from Garths blog...

Posted by: at September 29, 2007 10:21 AM

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Dion seems sincerely convinced that he can beat Harper, but he only needs more time. Last June he told Don Newman that he will beat Harper in BOTH the French and English debates ! That one overconfident, delusional statement spoke volumes as to why Dion
cannot play the political game anywhere near Harper's level.

I believe the guy is on a mission to prove his Liberal detractors wrong, and the Tories are wrong (that in fact he IS a leader), and Ignatieff was wrong (he WILL get the job done).

Given that he needs more time to prove his points, I think he will instruct his shadow cabinet to vote against the budget, while having the rest of the MPs abstain.

Posted by: at September 29, 2007 11:10 AM

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...Jason who?

Posted by: tomax7 at September 29, 2007 12:06 PM

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Don Newman on CBC TV is losing his patience with Dion when interviewing him, and is confronting him when Dion spouts his ridiculous claims that he is a good and growing leader, the party is united and will beat Harper in debates AND the election. I have heard near-apoplectic Don contradict Dion several times to his face, as the CBC provides unlimited free air time for the Liberal party poobahs and MPs in their desperate attempt to shore them up. It's so pathetic ...

I suspect the desperate CBC is losing confidence in Dion, and are fearful of a Liberal majority government that would clip back the CBC Newsworld budget and reallocate it to artsy-fartsy stuff that nobody will watch anyway ... because that is the way to make the CBC totally irrelevant to Canadian life.

Posted by: Observer at September 29, 2007 12:44 PM

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I still think it would be hilarious for only Harper to stand up and vote "yea." And the rest of the Conservatives abstain. This would mean that 80 out of 96 Liberals would have to vote "yea" to prevent the government from falling. It would force Dion to either vote for the Throne Speach and come off looking like a total loser, or just give in and head for an election they don't want. Either way it's lose-lose for Dion. If the Conservatives did that it would remove the possibility of Dion & the Libs from having any manuevers that would allow them to save face.

Posted by: Reid at September 29, 2007 01:43 PM

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The only thing the MSM hate worse than Stephen Harper and the Conservatives is a weak, wimpy Liberal leader who cannot win an election for them. If the writ falls, look for Dion to be propped up bigtime for the campaign; however, if there is no election , the MSM will be ruthless in their quest for a replacement. They want to get back to power as soon as possible.

Posted by: muttsrus at September 29, 2007 02:00 PM

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This just in. Garth Turner answers the questions of a young Liberal named Jason regarding the Party infighting. Sounds like the letter could be from Cherniak, heh, heh. Garth says drop the writ.

Posted by: muttsrus at September 29, 2007 03:36 PM

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"Roberto must have wondered over from Garths blog"
You must be one of Stephanies fart catchers. Getting tired of keeping up with your idol, don't worry about his farts, you better prepare yourself for his next verbal diarreah LOL!!

Posted by: Roberto at September 29, 2007 03:57 PM

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Garth says drop the writ? Looks like Garth is as delusional as his Leader, Stephane. They do have something else in common, they're both in danger of flickering out.

Posted by: Libby at September 30, 2007 07:20 AM

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Here's a neat theory about the newest front in the liberal civil war thats been raging since 93.

The ones that are most eager to see Dion go and are working to see him lose an election is the Rae/Power Corp team. Oterwise known as the "establishment".

Rae started his leadership campaign yesterday with the letter he? penned for the G&M.

Regardless the liberal party has been replaced by the MTV* party.

*Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver

Posted by: gimbol at October 2, 2007 12:26 PM

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Posted by: njracks at July 9, 2008 12:52 AM

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Posted by: aswkin at July 17, 2008 05:53 AM

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