Angry in the Great White North

When faced with the unknown, humans generally play it conservatively. Even the leftists.

The greatest unknown, of course, is the future. Fundamentally unknowable, we spend a great deal on polls and studies and computer models that try to dispel the fog. But at best we can perceive only the shadowy outlines of what is just around the corner, and even then, we are just as likely to be mistaken about what we think we are seeing.

Given that, humans typically adopt conservative strategies. One of those is to delay paying the piper. If faced with a choice of pain now or pain later, we will often pick pain later. Part of it is just to avoid pain, of course, but it is also a recognition that our view of the future is so poor that anything might happen to eliminate that pain altogether, if we just wait long enough.

Gilles Duceppe has a pain-now-or-pain-later choice. His Bloc Quebecois was hurt badly in the recent Quebec by-elections. They lost one seat to the Conservatives, almost lost a second one, and weren't even contenders in the third. The share of the popular vote plummeted.

That means if an election was to be held in the very near future, the Bloc Quebecois could stand to lose a huge number of seats, many of them to the Conservatives. He'd be forced out as leader of the Bloc. His laughable 24-hour run for the leadership of the Parti Quebecois means that there is no home for him in political politics either. Gilles Duceppe's political career would be over.

So why is Gilles Duceppe making the ridiculous demands of the Conservatives for the upcoming throne speech? I think the National Post is right -- Gilles Duceppe is bluffing:

Mr. Duceppe's bluster represents a classic example of a weakened politician overplaying his hand in a bid to reverse his declining fortunes. The fact is that the BQ's raison d'etre, separatism, is a moribund movement. And Monday's results reflect that. Indeed, they give every indication that the BQ-- which no longer has the crutch of Adscam to fall back on -- would get nicely thumped in a general election. Mr. Harper should call Mr. Duceppe's bluff by rejecting his ultimatum.

The bluster is to rally the troops. But Duceppe knows that an election in the near-future would be a disaster for the Bloc. Farther in the future, however, things get murkier. The longer he waits, the more time Duceppe allows for events to turn in his favour. There is no guarantee that anything would happen, or that if anything did, it wouldn't make his bad situation even worse. There is no guarantee something helpful won't happen either. But the likelihood grows with time that something, anything, will happen.

Frankly, it really can't be much worse than what he is facing right now. And that is why people delay. And that is why I think Gilles Duceppe is bluffing.

The only problem with my theory is that if Gilles Duceppe is really playing for time, why paint himself into a corner with his five non-negotiable demands? I think that like every politician, none of the rooms in his mind have corners. There is no promise that can't be ignored, no ultimatum that can't pass unmet, no non-negotiable demand that can't morph into a helpful suggestion. Faced with certain disaster now, or just a possible disaster later, Gilles Duceppe might find a way to "grudgingly" allow the throne speech to pass.

It's just human nature.

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