Gilles Duceppe's conservative nature
Gilles Duceppe faces an uncertain future. The only certainty, therefore, is that he would want that reckoning to be delayed as long as possible.
When faced with the unknown, humans generally play it conservatively. Even the leftists.
The greatest unknown, of course, is the future. Fundamentally unknowable, we spend a great deal on polls and studies and computer models that try to dispel the fog. But at best we can perceive only the shadowy outlines of what is just around the corner, and even then, we are just as likely to be mistaken about what we think we are seeing.
Given that, humans typically adopt conservative strategies. One of those is to delay paying the piper. If faced with a choice of pain now or pain later, we will often pick pain later. Part of it is just to avoid pain, of course, but it is also a recognition that our view of the future is so poor that anything might happen to eliminate that pain altogether, if we just wait long enough.
Gilles Duceppe has a pain-now-or-pain-later choice. His Bloc Quebecois was hurt badly in the recent Quebec by-elections. They lost one seat to the Conservatives, almost lost a second one, and weren't even contenders in the third. The share of the popular vote plummeted.
That means if an election was to be held in the very near future, the Bloc Quebecois could stand to lose a huge number of seats, many of them to the Conservatives. He'd be forced out as leader of the Bloc. His laughable 24-hour run for the leadership of the Parti Quebecois means that there is no home for him in political politics either. Gilles Duceppe's political career would be over.
So why is Gilles Duceppe making the ridiculous demands of the Conservatives for the upcoming throne speech? I think the National Post is right -- Gilles Duceppe is bluffing:
Mr. Duceppe's bluster represents a classic example of a weakened politician overplaying his hand in a bid to reverse his declining fortunes. The fact is that the BQ's raison d'etre, separatism, is a moribund movement. And Monday's results reflect that. Indeed, they give every indication that the BQ-- which no longer has the crutch of Adscam to fall back on -- would get nicely thumped in a general election. Mr. Harper should call Mr. Duceppe's bluff by rejecting his ultimatum.
The bluster is to rally the troops. But Duceppe knows that an election in the near-future would be a disaster for the Bloc. Farther in the future, however, things get murkier. The longer he waits, the more time Duceppe allows for events to turn in his favour. There is no guarantee that anything would happen, or that if anything did, it wouldn't make his bad situation even worse. There is no guarantee something helpful won't happen either. But the likelihood grows with time that something, anything, will happen.
Frankly, it really can't be much worse than what he is facing right now. And that is why people delay. And that is why I think Gilles Duceppe is bluffing.
The only problem with my theory is that if Gilles Duceppe is really playing for time, why paint himself into a corner with his five non-negotiable demands? I think that like every politician, none of the rooms in his mind have corners. There is no promise that can't be ignored, no ultimatum that can't pass unmet, no non-negotiable demand that can't morph into a helpful suggestion. Faced with certain disaster now, or just a possible disaster later, Gilles Duceppe might find a way to "grudgingly" allow the throne speech to pass.
It's just human nature.
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I think the only party that truly wants an election now is the NDP. The Conservatives don't want one now, but, ulike the Bloc & Libs, they're not afraid of one now.
What Duceppe has done is basically forced the Libs into a corner while trying to get his machismo back for the Bloquistes back home to rebuild his fortunes. This is Duceppe's gambit. He knows that if he does nothing then he's toast whenever the election does come. He's hoping the Liberals will do his dirty work and keep Parliament alive.
Time's running down on the clock. The Bloc is down by 5 and isn't in field goal range. It's third and long and Duceppe is throwing a hail Mary to the endzone. We're just waiting to see if the receiver makes the catch or drops the ball.
Posted by: Reid at September 24, 2007 11:28 AM
Duceppe and Layton are playing a game of chicken with the Liberal party. They both know that the Liberals cannot effectively run an election campaign because their fund-raising efforts are a failure, and their grassroots party members will not show up to work for a Dion leadership as they demonstrated in Outremont.
It was mentioned on CTV QP on Sunday that what might happen on the Throne Speech vote, the Liberal front bench might vote non-confidence while the Liberal backbenchers will not rise from their seats thus abstaining and avoiding an election this year.
The Liberal party executive may be running the show now that Dion has effectively abandoned leadership and is just flapping around like a one winged puffin ... LOL
Posted by: Observer at September 24, 2007 12:28 PM
Reid I agree, this is all about cornering the Liberals, who probably want an election less than the Bloc right now. Duceppe at least gets to give the impression that he is principled and ballsy, whereas the Liberals will be forced to support the throne speech. Dion will still groan about it, but he has to support the throne speech if only for the 'fog' reason Steve highlighted above.
Either way, it looks as though we have two parties in disrepair, going nowhere fast, and another party that noone can take seriously. Things are looking better and better for conservatives.
Posted by: James at September 24, 2007 12:39 PM
Harper/Flaherty sell off of Canadian income trusts continues apace: Abu Dhabi picks up PrimeWest Energy Trust in $5 Billion deal. The devaluation of income trusts caused by Harper's reneging on his pledge not to add new taxes onto trusts has created a buyers market for these great Canadian assets. Well done Stevie boy and much more to come.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070924.wprimewest0924/BNStory/robNews/home
Posted by: da prince at September 24, 2007 01:01 PM
This is a poker analogy if ever there was one.
Basically, Duceppe is leading off with a weak hand and is going all-in before he even sees the flop. He's trying to use table position to try and force the other players to commit and lay down chips just to stay in. Trouble is, he's been around so long now that people are calling his bluffs.
Dion is all over the place. Sometimes he plays tough with a weak hand and folds a strong hand. Dion's chip stack is dwindling rapidly. His tells are obvious. Despite his experience, he takes foolish risks and throws good chips after bad. Other players are watching him, knowing he is going to bust out and open up a seat at the table for other players to buy-in.
Layton isn't doing as badly as he was at the start of the game. Layton loves the inane table talk. He may be short stacked, but any hands he wins are invariably at Dion's expense. Sometimes he surprises you with a large ballsy win and manages to stay in.
Harper is clearly the chip leader. Momentum is on his side and he has been using this to pull in a lot of blinds and strong pre-flop betting with strong hands and gutsy betting. When Harper first came to the table, he was underestimated. But Harper can read the ebb and flow of this table better than any of the players.
Elizabeth May can't get enough money together to even buy in for one blind. Dion promised to lend her the money, but he is going to have enough trouble hanging on to what he's got, let alone give her anything.
Posted by: Kai Wolf at September 24, 2007 01:17 PM
I wonder if some Conservatives might get a case of the flu on the day of the vote. That would be funny to watch the Libs counting seats to see who can still stand up and who should stay seated.
Posted by: Expert Tom at September 24, 2007 01:19 PM
LOL, good point Tom. With enough Party support from either of the other Parties, and just enough to make the Liberals scramble. That would be hilarious.
Posted by: Kai Wolf at September 24, 2007 01:30 PM
The politicians fiddle while Canada burns. How caring of them. This is real life those of us out here are living, and the politicians think it is a game of onupmanship--they are all disgusting. I hope they all lose. Why should we bother to mark our ballot when this is what they are most interested in? I have more things to do with my time than play games. Too bad the political parties don't.
Posted by: George at September 24, 2007 01:51 PM
I can think of at least one group of Liberals that want an election, and that would be the ones backing Iggy. Dion cannot be deposed until after an election.
The NDP don't stand to gain a whole lot, they will be fighting it out in the large urban areas with the Liberals. They could gain a few but I don't see anything dramatic at this point. Their support is spread wide and thin across the country with only a few seats that they could realistically turn around.
They stand to make very good gains if Iggy does end up with the leadership and would be better off waiting out the Liberals implosion.
Posted by: davide at September 24, 2007 04:12 PM
it shouldn't be allowed, that some FRINGE party can suddenly decide, to start the election process, just because he isn't getting enough ATTENTION. Most 14-year olds, have already learned not to act like this kind of guy....
Posted by: Feldwebel Wolfenstool at September 24, 2007 05:03 PM
Why not come out with six guns, er, five guns blazing; Duceppe needs to rally the troops. No point in laying low; he might as well steal the NDP thunder by taking the strongest stand for Kyoto and against the Afghan mission and leave the Liberals dangling in the wind. The Bloc is still the main leftist party in Quebec and it shows he is conceding nothing to Liberals and the NDP. He needs to look strong and decisive.
Then again, with the current controversy surrounding Pauline Marois and her multi-million dollar estate, perhaps Duceppe has renewed optimism for his provincial political aspirations.
Posted by: muttsrus at September 24, 2007 07:13 PM
I agree with your sentiments, George. I think it's because they are insulated from us by bureaucracy. They get to their office and basically follow orders from their party leaders and bureaucrats. Which brings up a good point- Who here doesn't have a story of some surly bureaucrat, on the phone or face to face, who made our lives more miserable? Never mind feeling lucky to have a cushy job, these public desk jockeys often enjoy reminding us "who's boss". THEY are our window on our government!
If we made every elected lawmaking occupation (federal down to municipal) carry a two term limit we could end (or at least incapacitate) political corruption, nepotism, empire-building, you name it. If you can't get done what you think needs to be done in eight to ten years, then I say, sorry, Mr Jones, thanks and buh-bye. Here's a nice watch.
We would know that they were once again caretakers of the public purse and infrastructure rather than just wallowing in it.
Posted by: Larry at September 24, 2007 07:42 PM
Oh, and back on topic, Gilles Duceppe is a weenie.
Posted by: Larry at September 24, 2007 07:46 PM
Duceppe is a cornered weasel in survival mode. Gnashing his dull fangs.
Canadians like myself just want a government to do the work they were elected to do, provide the service they were elected to provide and let us live in peace.
The Liberals, NDP and Bloc are just a menace. Ontario has an election brewing right now and it just sickening for those of us who just want to be left alone to live our lives.
UGH!
Posted by: zilla at September 24, 2007 08:01 PM
This has nothing to do with Duceppe, but I'm surprised that Steve Janke hasn't picked up on the Bruce Allen controversy in Vancouver. There's a man who dared say on the airwaves what is on the mind on many people and is being threatened with losing his job (not that he needs it) because he dared say that immigrants who cannot adapt to our laws and respect them should go home. It's been on the airwaves for days now and may open up the whole debate about what we are willing to do to accommodate immigrants (just like in Quebec). The majority in Vancouver support him, but the Sikh activists (friends of the federal Liberals) were very fast in crying racism and complaining to the CRTC. It turns out that a lot of them are extremists who may even have been be involved in the Air India disaster. It's amazing how freedom of speech is good for the goose, but the gander. Say anything about immigrants and you are branded a racist.
Posted by: Louise at September 25, 2007 12:07 AM
To see what some Quebecers are thinking about Duceppe's challenge to PM Harper go here:
http://galeriedephotos.cyberpresse.ca/index.php?t=Black&a=969&m=cp
The caption reads:
The Bloc goes on the attack.
Duceppe: "C'mon, Harper, I'm waiting for ya!"
Posted by: Gabby in QC at September 25, 2007 08:11 AM
Just a heads up Steve, in case you haven't seen it. A post by The Phantom Observer is saying that David Atkin (CTV) is accusing you of being a "handmaiden of the PMO".
Posted by: muttsrus at September 25, 2007 11:37 AM
David AKIN, sorry. Kady O'Malley of Maclean's also has a post on this and Red Tory weighs in with his 2 cents.
Posted by: muttsrus at September 25, 2007 11:56 AM
George - vote, but mark "none of the above" on the ballot, but at least go and vote.
Posted by: jt at September 25, 2007 03:27 PM
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