Sabotage! Liberal in-fighting in Outremont
In my last post, I considered the possibility that enemies of Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion from within the party would like to see their own party lose the by-eletion inthe riding of Outremont. A Liberal stronghold, the Liberal candidate is Jocelyn Coulon, an academic cut from the same cloth as Stephane Dion himself, a candidate that was not nominated by the Liberals in the riding but appointed to be their nominee directly by Stephane Dion. A loss would reflect poorly on Stephane Dion on a number of levels -- weakness in Quebec, poor decision-making skills, etc -- and might accelerate his departure as leader of the Liberal Party.
If I was Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae, I might see such a loss for the Liberal Party as an opportunity to get a second chance at the party leadership. If not Ignatieff and Rae personally, then maybe their more devoted followers in the party. With that in mind, I considered that elements in the Liberal Party would work towards a Liberal loss.
It made logical sense, but frankly I was being speculative. There was no way that my musings could ever be backed by evidence. These sorts of things happen so far back behind the scenes that we'd be lucky to learn the truth of it decades from now in some memoir or autobiography.
Or maybe not. How about confirmation of my theory before the day is out? Political musing at internet speed indeed.
It looks like Michael Ignatieff supporters are doing exactly what I suspected would happen within the Liberal Party -- factions still bitter at losing the leadership to Stephane Dion are sabotaging the campaign in Outremont in order to destroy Stephane Dion and trigger a second leadership race:
Michael Ignatieff supporters are sabotaging Liberal efforts in the Outremont byelection in hopes of weakening Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, Dion loyalists say.
A poll in La Presse of Montreal on Friday suggests the NDP may win a historic breakthrough in the riding on Monday. That would be a disaster for Mr. Dion, who personally selected international affairs expert Jocelyn Coulon as the Liberal candidate in what should be a safe seat in downtown Montreal.
Dion loyalists suspect Liberal organizers who support Mr. Ignatieff have been undermining the campaign, hoping that a loss would force Mr. Dion out of the leadership once Liberals realized that he couldn’t deliver seats in Quebec.
"I only know what I see, and I see some suspicious stuff," said one Liberal worker on the ground.
Just how does one sabotage a campaign of one's own party?
The Dion people say organizers in the riding have made a series of bizarre, counterproductive moves.
"There’s one of two options," said one source close to Mr. Dion. "There’s some folks there who are either grossly incompetent or intentionally malicious."
Dion loyalists are leaning toward the second option. They say Mr. Ignatieff’s supporters have refused offers of help from out-of-town volunteers and tried to stop high-profile Liberals like Ken Dryden and Justin Trudeau from campaigning in Outremont. They also tried unsuccessfully to block a rally tonight that will feature Mr. Dryden, Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Dion.
Mr. Ignatieff was not available for comment Friday.
Michael Ignatieff might have been too busy reading the polling news on Friday. The polls showed that the NDP candidate, Thomas Mulcair, had a commanding six-point lead going into the final weekend before the vote this Monday.
We don't know whether the allegations are true (Ignatieff supporters like Denis Coderre are adamant that these allegations are groundless) but the fact that Dion's people are going public is very telling.
Think about it.
Stephane Dion and his people see a resounding loss shaping up in Outremont, and not a single win in any three of the Quebec by-elections being held on Monday. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are likely to pick up a seat in Quebec, suggesting that Tory strength in Quebec is not an anomaly that will disappear as memory of the Sponsorship Scandal recedes, but a growing threat based on real shifts in Quebec political thought.
And a real threat to Stephane Dion's future.
Dion and his people also see some evidence that Michael Ignatieff's people are not all too concerned. Maybe even helping orchestrate a Liberal loss. But why go public?
There are two obvious reasons:
- It helps soften the blow. Stephane Dion could have been successful if it weren't for those meddling Ignatieff kids!
- It strikes a counterblow against Michael Ignatieff. Michael Ignatieff is more concerned about Michael Ignatieff than about the Liberal Party or Canada.
But this is a risky move to make. Again, two very good reasons not to be going public with these sorts of allegations:
- True or not, it becomes self-fulfilling. Michael Ignatieff is being labelled the enemy. That starts the clock running, and Michael Ignatieff will be compelled to move against Stephane Dion.
- It weakens Stephane Dion's position because it showcases his failure to unite the party. And it weakens Stephane Dion at the same time as Michael Ignatieff is forced by the allegations to make his move.
On the balance, I don't see the upside of going public. Stephane Dion blaming Michael Ignatieff hurts Stephane Dion more than it helps him. That is why I would never have expected that my speculations would have been so quickly and dramatically confirmed.
It says a lot. If Stephane Dion was in a reasonably secure position, we would not have heard these allegations. But Stephane Dion and his people must realize something the rest of us only suspect, and that is that Stephane Dion's hold on the Liberal Party is slipping. Do nothing and be ousted as leader, and sooner rather than later. Do something, even if it is likely to hurt such as going public with allegations that a specific faction in the party is actively trying to destroy Dion, and at least there is a small but finite chance that it might actually help.
The Liberal Party is not acting rationally. It is being riven by emotion-driven individuals who are fighting out personal vendettas, pushed to act by the fragility of their grips on party power.
It could take years for the major players and their supporters to fade away and for the Liberal Party to fix itself. In the mean time, it might come back to power despite the divisions, either under Dion or someone else. Lord help us if this factionalized Liberal Party even get back in control.
Links:
Bourque gives us some context in his notes dated September 15.
Jason Cherniak confirms my self-fulfilling prophecy point:
I don't know who it was, but if a person "close to Dion" really did tell the media that Ignatieff folks are conspiring against the leader, then that person should be fired. Such comments are self fulfilling because they convince otherwise loyal people to feel like their loyalty is being questioned.
Some people are too close to be fired, of course. And Jason avoids considering the possibility that this sort of allegation was being made with Stephane Dion's permission.
Mixed messages:
Stephane Dion today in Montreal:
"My leadership is solid," Dion said when asked whether the [Outremont] byelection is also a personal evaluation.
"We are a united party and we are working for victory."
Stephane Dion's people today behind the scenes:
"I only know what I see, and I see some suspicious stuff," said one Liberal worker on the ground [in Outremont].
The Dion people say organizers in the riding have made a series of bizarre, counterproductive moves.
"There’s one of two options," said one source close to Mr. Dion. "There’s some folks there who are either grossly incompetent or intentionally malicious."
Dion loyalists are leaning toward the second option.
Whatever the results on Monday, people are going to remember this weekend of weak Liberal polls and a confused and panicked Liberal response.
And they'll remember Stephane Dion's message of party strength and unity being undermined by his closest people.
In case they forget, I'm sure a Conservative ad will remind them.
Addendum: Joining in the "Who's the leak?" game.
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Comments
You have an interesting point, but you're missing the big picture.
Bourque has a great point today:
"Today's schism predates the recent leadership convention. The splits within the Liberal party harken back to the Trudeau/Turner era, followed by myriad Turner/Chretien convolutions, subsequented by the Chretien/Martin dichotomy, and now buffeted by the tenuous Ignatieff/Rae/Dion fooferaws. Personal tiffs abound, as do vendettas, hurt feelings, and un-assuaged arrogance."
What a friggin den of vipers.
Posted by: Art Fuldodger at September 15, 2007 05:47 PM
But for the leader's faction to make the allegations is huge! It confirms that the party is broken and that the leader has failed. Not the sort of thing that the leader would want to confirm.
Posted by: Steve Janke at September 15, 2007 05:52 PM
What if ... this supposed sabotage by Ignatieff's troops is a ruse to get the Jewish vote in Outremont out en masse to vote for Dion's candidate?
Coulon apparently met with leaders of the Jewish community, which was threatening to put their support elsewhere, because of Coulon's past writings in support of some Palestinian aspirations. From what I read (where ?) the community was satisfied with Coulon's explanations.
Has the same community, though, forgotten Ignatieff's accusation of "war crimes" against Israel in 2006, even if later recanted?
OK, take my scenario with a big grain of salt. I've never been very good at letting my imagination run wild ...
Posted by: Gabby in QC at September 15, 2007 06:10 PM
Art is right. So are you Steve. Dion's leadership is in tatters.
I'm a lifelong Liberal. Born and bred. I AM PISSED !!!!!
But, what can ya do when ya do what ya do and ya live in a zoo !!!!
Man, if only Ken Dryden had a personality ... and some firebrand passion ... we would have been a formidabl party by now ... sigh !
Posted by: Gene (not my real name) at September 15, 2007 06:11 PM
Gabby, you're right, you're conspiracy theories are full of bovine by-product. Dion's goose is cooked in Outremont.
Posted by: Nate at September 15, 2007 06:13 PM
Shhhh !
Here's a brain-bender. What do Bourque and Outremont have in common ?
Bourque's great-uncle was mayor of Outremont through the '50's. He was Liberal MP through the '60's. He was Liberal Senator for Outremont through the '70's.
Bourque himself, by the way, was Liberal candidate in Rosemont, right next door to Outremont, wasn't he ?
How do I know ? A life-long Outremont resident, die-hard Liberal.
Now how's that for an interesting bit of trivia ?
Oh, am I still a die-hard Liberal ? Ah, sorry, no. For this one exception, I will vote NDP.
My protest against a weak leader.
Posted by: Jacques at September 15, 2007 06:26 PM
" ... you're right, you're conspiracy theories are full of bovine by-product."
Why don't you tell me what you REALLY think? :-D
Not that I support Dion or the Liberals, but don't cry victory yet ... I'll believe it when I've tasted the foie gras.
Posted by: Gabby in QC at September 15, 2007 07:16 PM
Dion is best gift the Tories could have ever hoped for. If he loses on Monday and the knives come out, he could be replaced by someone that actually is coherent and makes sense when asked basic questions. Hopefully the stars will line up and he will stay on as leader even after the Monday Massacre. At the very worst, the Libs will keep there seat in Montreal and the Tories can still win a seat. No matter what happens, the status quo will be maintained or the tories will be up a seat in Quebec. It will be interesting to see how that is spun by Dion. Bottom line is the Tories need Dion to be leader until the next election so that Harper can decimate him in both official languages in the debates.
Posted by: nstory at September 15, 2007 07:21 PM
Think of another possibility. If Lib$ win in Outremont, and the Tories lose in Roberval, will Harper's leadership be in play?
Careful what you sow, you lil 'ol Buckleroos :-)
Posted by: at September 15, 2007 07:31 PM
At this point the headlines aren't about Harper and his leadership. As stated, no matter what happens the worst that can happen is the status quo is maintained. This is about Dions leadership in his home province.
By the way the spelling is Buckaroo, ya lil 'ol BUCKLEROO.
Posted by: nstory at September 15, 2007 07:51 PM
1. And I can't emphasize this enough, I don't work for Sandra Buckler. I've never met her in person, by phone, email, anything. (There is a reason for that spelling, nstory.)
2. No one likes to lose a by-election, but I doubt any Conservative or NDP leader would be ousted for losing a Quebec-based race. The expectations just aren't as high as for the Bloc or the Liberals.
Posted by: Steve Janke at September 15, 2007 08:06 PM
Looks like the Liberal party is continuing on the same path paved by the Martin/Chretien power grubbers. We know what that did to the Liberals, this might just finish them off.
Posted by: Libby at September 15, 2007 08:41 PM
Sorry Steve,
I get the Buckleroo context now.
I see now that Dion is already making excuses if things go south in Montreal.
cnews.canoe.ca
Dion credited the NDP advance to the electorate's dislike for the Conservative government.
"It's clear that the people in Outremont are looking for a way to express their protest against the current government," he said
I would have thought that by electing a liberal in 2006, that would have indicated Outremont didn't want a Harper government.Why wait till now to elect an NDP to protest the Tories?
Posted by: nstory at September 15, 2007 08:51 PM
When an internal leadership conflict becomes a public accusation of treason by a close confidante of the leader, it's an indication that the end is near.
Also, Bourque's astute observation about the constant internal leadership battles within the Liberal Party of Canada is at least significantly a manifestation of the brokerage nature of the party. That is, their policies are not strongly based on any particular political philosophy other than "what sells" to the public at any particular time, and what deals can be made to grab or stay in power.
Iggy's dreams of being leader of the Liberals and possibly PM one day were only delayed by the unforeseen and generally unwanted circumstances that the Liberal conventioneers found themselves in that got Dion elected as their leader.
That Iggy has strongly denounced his pro-Iraq war position during his academic career and generally dismissed the significance of his life-long profession is a strong indication that he is not satisfied with being the number two bird in the Puffin Party of Canada.
Posted by: aek at September 15, 2007 08:58 PM
"It's clear that the people in Outremont are looking for a way to express their protest against the current government," he said
I would have thought that by electing a liberal in 2006, that would have indicated Outremont didn't want a Harper government.Why wait till now to elect an NDP to protest the Tories?My thoughts exactly! Why not protest the Tories by electing the party the riding has always supported (which would give the riding a seat in the Official Oppostion, rather than the third-party)?
There was a line on Corner Gas last season that fits Dion perfectly: "When you said that just now, did it sound stupid to you?
Posted by: Tom at September 15, 2007 09:40 PM
I'm finding this "let's backstab Dion two seconds after the leadership race" scenario a bit hard to swallow, actually.
a) This is how Conservatives act, not Liberals.
b) Even Conservatives aren't this self-destructive.
On the other hand, remember how Dion was praised for including all his leadership rivals on his "Dream Team"? Stockwell Day followed a similar path, and we all remember the results, don't we?
When Ralph Klein became leader of the Alberta PCs, he dumped all of his leadership rivals from positions of his importance. Klein won how many majorities?
I've been saying all along that Dion doesn't understand what being a leader of a governing alternative in Canada means. He has this arrogant gentlemans view of the job: I'm the leader, it's everyone duty now to follow.
Well, it doesn't work that way, and now we're seeing the blood on the floor. Mop-up crew in aisle 3 please.
Posted by: Dennis (Second Thots) at September 15, 2007 10:08 PM
First off, I really hope Dion stays on as Liberal party leader. Not because I think he'd make a good Prime Minister, but because I think Stephen Harper IS a better one. For those of you who still vote Liberal, that means that (as said here already a couple of times) Stephen Dion, the man who eats a hot dog with a knife and fork is, Literally, the greatest gift the CPC could ever hope for.
Secondly, I am left wondering what Dion's #1 lap-dog, Garth (look at me look at me)Turner makes of all this. Me thinks that, to save his own political butt, he'll very quickly become a Ignatieff supporter.
My two cents.
Posted by: Paul M at September 15, 2007 10:22 PM
Harper couldn't get a better opposition then he has with Dion.
If the Liberals lose here in Quebec the in fighting will become
public it will be like Paul Martins and Jean Chrétien. It can only
help thee Conservatives.
My blog is http://therightitswhereitsat.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Johnny at September 15, 2007 10:49 PM
Sounds like Stephanie Dion has some firing to do.
http://pissinginthetent.com
Posted by: Pissinginthetent.com at September 15, 2007 11:19 PM
Here's another scenario: maybe this is one of those 1-out-of-20 times that the polls are out by more than the poll margin of error, and we should wait until people actually mark their ballots.
Posted by: Ed Minchau at September 15, 2007 11:25 PM
Dion won't make it to the end of the week ...!!!
Posted by: Observer at September 15, 2007 11:41 PM
Heh, how about we wait for the death before we declare the funeral, eh?
Posted by: lance at September 16, 2007 12:31 AM
Those who are predicting Dion's demise might be a bit premature... this IS the Liberal party after all, and their 'get out the vote' is extremely effective. On the other hand, the NDP have made this riding something of a personal vendetta and I'd doubt that they'd be unprepared for this weekend.
Either way, the Tories are no longer the story. If Harper fails to pick up a seat, it'll be written off as the Tories failing to win three ridings that they were never likely to win. No biggie.
If Dion loses, the story will be how Dion lost a riding that has been Liberal from inception practically. The knives may not come out yet, but Dion will look bad. If Dion wins, the story will be how the Liberals barely managed to squeak out a victory in their stronghold by flying in practically every big name they have on the last day.
Win or lose, Dion has egg on his face.
Posted by: southernontarioan at September 16, 2007 04:13 AM
Steve
You make some interesting points and offer some insights into the machinations within the LPoC.
I offer this bit of video evidence that the knives were out before the most recent polls broke. This from the Garth Turner TH meeting in Calgary on Sept 13/07.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lXAXjr_veE
Syncro
Posted by: syncrodox at September 16, 2007 10:45 AM
A common saying used to be "I'm not a member of an organized political party, I'm a Tory." It's becoming more likely that one will be able to substitute "Liberal" for "Tory" and have the saying still hold true.
Posted by: Brian in Calgary at September 16, 2007 02:07 PM
Interesting developments:
Kate at SDA has a link to the exposure of the Herald Source who was making the anti Iggy allegations. (VP of Young Liberals)
Jason Cherniak has an email of this VP resigning, but says its a fake.
Posted by: john at September 16, 2007 11:44 PM
At the end of the day..............A government is (in theory) supposed to represent taxpayers and do the right things for the country.
Liberals are 100% about power and access to the treasury. They see the power as a "Spoils of War" and they loot and pillage.
I think the Liberals are pirates!
Posted by: zilla at September 17, 2007 06:07 PM
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Posted by: aswkin at July 17, 2008 03:52 AM
 
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