Angry in the Great White North

It looks like Michael Ignatieff supporters are doing exactly what I suspected would happen within the Liberal Party -- factions still bitter at losing the leadership to Stephane Dion are sabotaging the campaign in Outremont in order to destroy Stephane Dion and trigger a second leadership race:

Michael Ignatieff supporters are sabotaging Liberal efforts in the Outremont byelection in hopes of weakening Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, Dion loyalists say.

A poll in La Presse of Montreal on Friday suggests the NDP may win a historic breakthrough in the riding on Monday. That would be a disaster for Mr. Dion, who personally selected international affairs expert Jocelyn Coulon as the Liberal candidate in what should be a safe seat in downtown Montreal.

Dion loyalists suspect Liberal organizers who support Mr. Ignatieff have been undermining the campaign, hoping that a loss would force Mr. Dion out of the leadership once Liberals realized that he couldn’t deliver seats in Quebec.

"I only know what I see, and I see some suspicious stuff," said one Liberal worker on the ground.

Just how does one sabotage a campaign of one's own party?

The Dion people say organizers in the riding have made a series of bizarre, counterproductive moves.

"There’s one of two options," said one source close to Mr. Dion. "There’s some folks there who are either grossly incompetent or intentionally malicious."

Dion loyalists are leaning toward the second option. They say Mr. Ignatieff’s supporters have refused offers of help from out-of-town volunteers and tried to stop high-profile Liberals like Ken Dryden and Justin Trudeau from campaigning in Outremont. They also tried unsuccessfully to block a rally tonight that will feature Mr. Dryden, Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Dion.

Mr. Ignatieff was not available for comment Friday.

Michael Ignatieff might have been too busy reading the polling news on Friday. The polls showed that the NDP candidate, Thomas Mulcair, had a commanding six-point lead going into the final weekend before the vote this Monday.

We don't know whether the allegations are true (Ignatieff supporters like Denis Coderre are adamant that these allegations are groundless) but the fact that Dion's people are going public is very telling.

Think about it.

Stephane Dion and his people see a resounding loss shaping up in Outremont, and not a single win in any three of the Quebec by-elections being held on Monday. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are likely to pick up a seat in Quebec, suggesting that Tory strength in Quebec is not an anomaly that will disappear as memory of the Sponsorship Scandal recedes, but a growing threat based on real shifts in Quebec political thought.

And a real threat to Stephane Dion's future.

Dion and his people also see some evidence that Michael Ignatieff's people are not all too concerned. Maybe even helping orchestrate a Liberal loss. But why go public?

There are two obvious reasons:

1. It helps soften the blow. Stephane Dion could have been successful if it weren't for those meddling Ignatieff kids!
2. It strikes a counterblow against Michael Ignatieff. Michael Ignatieff is more concerned about Michael Ignatieff than about the Liberal Party or Canada.

But this is a risky move to make. Again, two very good reasons not to be going public with these sorts of allegations:

1. True or not, it becomes self-fulfilling. Michael Ignatieff is being labelled the enemy. That starts the clock running, and Michael Ignatieff will be compelled to move against Stephane Dion.
2. It weakens Stephane Dion's position because it showcases his failure to unite the party. And it weakens Stephane Dion at the same time as Michael Ignatieff is forced by the allegations to make his move.

On the balance, I don't see the upside of going public. Stephane Dion blaming Michael Ignatieff hurts Stephane Dion more than it helps him. That is why I would never have expected that my speculations would have been so quickly and dramatically confirmed.

It says a lot. If Stephane Dion was in a reasonably secure position, we would not have heard these allegations. But Stephane Dion and his people must realize something the rest of us only suspect, and that is that Stephane Dion's hold on the Liberal Party is slipping. Do nothing and be ousted as leader, and sooner rather than later. Do something, even if it is likely to hurt such as going public with allegations that a specific faction in the party is actively trying to destroy Dion, and at least there is a small but finite chance that it might actually help.

The Liberal Party is not acting rationally. It is being riven by emotion-driven individuals who are fighting out personal vendettas, pushed to act by the fragility of their grips on party power.

It could take years for the major players and their supporters to fade away and for the Liberal Party to fix itself. In the mean time, it might come back to power despite the divisions, either under Dion or someone else. Lord help us if this factionalized Liberal Party even get back in control.

Links:

Bourque gives us some context in his notes dated September 15.

Jason Cherniak confirms my self-fulfilling prophecy point:

I don't know who it was, but if a person "close to Dion" really did tell the media that Ignatieff folks are conspiring against the leader, then that person should be fired. Such comments are self fulfilling because they convince otherwise loyal people to feel like their loyalty is being questioned.

Some people are too close to be fired, of course. And Jason avoids considering the possibility that this sort of allegation was being made with Stephane Dion's permission.

Mixed messages:

Stephane Dion today in Montreal:

"My leadership is solid," Dion said when asked whether the [Outremont] byelection is also a personal evaluation.

"We are a united party and we are working for victory."

Stephane Dion's people today behind the scenes:

"I only know what I see, and I see some suspicious stuff," said one Liberal worker on the ground [in Outremont].

The Dion people say organizers in the riding have made a series of bizarre, counterproductive moves.

"There’s one of two options," said one source close to Mr. Dion. "There’s some folks there who are either grossly incompetent or intentionally malicious."

Dion loyalists are leaning toward the second option.

Whatever the results on Monday, people are going to remember this weekend of weak Liberal polls and a confused and panicked Liberal response.

And they'll remember Stephane Dion's message of party strength and unity being undermined by his closest people.

In case they forget, I'm sure a Conservative ad will remind them.

Addendum: Joining in the "Who's the leak?" game.

Check out other entries from the Outremont category
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