Angry in the Great White North

Anyone else notice just how busy Michael Ignatieff is?

He writes a major essay for the New York Times, designed to being him in line with the bulk of Liberal Party thinking with regards to Iraq (best to have left Saddam in charge, pilfering millions from the food-for-oil contracts, and feeding political enemies to shredding machines after raping their wives and daughters). Now having addressing the most difficult problem he faced during the Liberal leadership campaign, he's been on the move:

• Richmond, PQ
• Surrey, BC
• Vancouver, BC
• Markham, ON
• Windsor, ON
• Leamington, ON

No election is in the immediate future. Liberal coffers are virtually empty, and little money is flowing in. So why the frenetic pace?

Michael Ignatieff says he is not preparing for an election, but that one could happen at any time.

More than one observer has suggested that Ignatieff is positioning himself to take over from Stephane Dion. But for that to happen, Stephane Dion has to cease being leader. That's not likely to happen unless Stephane Dion allows it to happen. According to the Liberal Party constitution, short of dying or being otherwise physically incapacitated, Stephane Dion can resign willingly. There are only two ways for Dion to be forced from the position as leader against his will, and they are both rather unlikely situations.

One is if it is determined that Stephane Dion was not eligible to be leader in the first place or otherwise cheated during the leadership convention.

Second is if Stephane Dion fails to win a Leadership Endorsement Ballot. But that vote is only taken at the first biennial party convention after a general election in which the leader does not become prime minister. Of course, that was Paul Martin, and he already resigned. My reading of the constitution suggests that this is the only circumstance that can trigger a Leadership Endorsement Ballot. (I should note that the Conservative Party constitution has a similar set of rules.)

But it is interesting that if the Liberals felt an election was coming sooner rather than later, and if they felt that they would lose, and knowing that would automatically force a Leadership Endorsement Ballot, Stephane Dion would know he was doomed.

So preparing for an election is equivalent to preparing for a leadership vote, if you don't think Stephane Dion could win an election.

In fact, by lining up supporters, Michael Ignatieff is ensuring a Leadership Endorsement Ballot would spell the end of Dion is party leader.

Putting it another way, Stephane Dion needs to fend off an election in order to keep his job. So anyone angling for the job would want to ratchet up the election talk. If there was a sense of an election coming, and Stephane Dion was perceived to be a liability, the party executive could suggest strongly that Dion step aside, making it clear that Dion's days were numbered by virtue of the automatic Leadership Endorsement Ballot that was guaranteed to go against Dion.

But is that the only reason to visit riding after riding? If Ignatieff thinks for some reason Dion would be stepping aside soon, Ignatieff needs to be ready to scare off any potential contenders. That means appearing unbeatable, and that means lining up support. Is Ignatieff trying to get a clutch of riding association presidents lined up behind him?

If he can present a fait accompli to the party executive, the party executive could set the terms of the leadership convention to prevent nuisance contenders like Joe Volpe from running.

But can that work against Bob Rae, who has backers with deep pockets? Not directly. If Bob Rae wants to run, he'll run. But if Michael Ignatieff can choke off any nascent challenges from little candidates like Joe Volpe and Hedy Fry and Scott Brison, Ignatieff might be successful in making it a two-way race right out of the starting gate. Rae would look at a two-way race, with no allies with which to build an anti-Ignatieff alliance, and with Ignatieff with a head start, and with everyone still carrying the debt from the 2006 leadership campaign, and most importantly, with the party executive sending clear signals that an Ignatieff coronation would not be seen as a bad thing, and Rae might easily conclude that he might be hurt politically if he is seen forcing the Liberal Party into an expensive leadership campaign whose outcome was never in doubt.

Now six trips does not make for a majority of riding associations. But then Ignatieff still has all his supporters from the leadership convention. And the perception of a man on the move for the top prize might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.