The idea that the Liberal leadership campaign is back on, with senior Liberals quietly preparing to replace Stephane Dion is party leader, is commonly held:
There is every indication that the Liberal leadership race is picking up where it left off when Dion stunned everyone by winning.
Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, who are the two top contenders, are lying low but you can bet your solar panels that their supporters are preparing to ditch Dion.
The only reason they’re not pulling the rug out from under him immediately is because they’re worried about an imminent election.
These same people often repeat that last line -- no coup because of an imminent election.
That's not quite right. There can't be a coup until the election. Why?
It has nothing to do with an election loss for the Liberals being the excuse needed to get rid of Stephane Dion. There are excuses plenty, and in any case, none is really needed. Just broad support inside the party.
It has nothing to do with the scale of an impending loss being greater with a new leader. That makes no sense. Either Stephane Dion is worse than his replacement or he is not. A new leader, for those hoping to replace Dion, will perform better in an election, or so they think.
The reason an election must happen ahead of a coup is simple: the Liberal Party needs the cash. In the last election, the Liberals received 4,479,415 votes. Under Canadian financing laws, that translated into a subsidy of near $8 million delivered to it by the federal government. That's desperately needed money, given the millions blown on picking Stephane Dion.
Election happens. Liberals lose. Canadian taxpayers fork over millions. Money is used to pick a new leader. Simple.
If Stephane Dion wants to keep his job, he will have to fend off the next election as long as possible. He could use the time to rescue his faltering role as leader.
Of course, a Liberal loss could be too much of a good thing for Dion's enemies. A disastrous campaign will end up costing in subsidies if the Liberal popular vote collapses. For senior Liberals itching for chance to take over the party, Stephane Dion has to be bad, but not too bad. The campaign has to happen ahead of a collapse like that, and if there are signs that this collapse is occurring, then Dion might be replaced ahead of an election, regardless of the cost. So far, though, the Liberal numbers remain steady -- they'll lose if these polling numbers don't shift, but they'll probably end up with about the same number of votes and so the same subsidy.
Minus, of course, the money that would have come from the 10,000 Liberal votes traditional cast in Central Nova.
