Dan Baril, strategist for the Green Party, resigned over the deal struck between his boss Elizabeth May and Liberal leader Stephane Dion not to run a Liberal candidate in Central Nova, where Elizabeth May is challenging incumbent Conservative Peter MacKay, in return for not run a Green Party candidate in Stephane Dion's riding and giving Stephane Dion an endorsement as the best choice for prime minister:
Dan Baril, a party strategist, resigned his post.
On Friday, May announced a deal with Liberal Leader Stephane Dion that the Liberals won't run a candidate in the Nova Scotia riding of Central Nova that May plans to contest. The riding is held by Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay. In turn, the Green party won't run anyone in Dion's Montreal riding of Saint-Laurent-Cartierville.
"I strongly advised against doing Central Nova and against doing what happened on Friday," Baril told the Star shortly after submitting his resignation.
"Everything they're hearing (from political opponents) are things I advised them they were going to be facing after this and that it was going to hurt them, and so therefore don't do it or do it differently," Baril said. Green party officials decided Sunday their bare-bones budget could no longer support Baril's salary, but backed away from suggestions he'd been dismissed.
His analysis on the reasons and the consequences of the Dion-May deal is interesting. You can find it all on his blog.
First, he sees no good reason for the deal. It won't help Elizabth May win Central Nova, nor will it help defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper:
Even if every Liberal and every Green buys into the symbolism, outside of Central Nova and St-Laurent, exactly how does one go about supporting it in a way that defeats Mr. Harper? History suggests Mr. Dion has never needed Green support to win his seat in St-Laurent, and it is not yet known what amount of Liberal support will impact Elizabeth May in Central Nova. At best, the strategy may elect one Green in Central Nova, and in the other 307 ridings, a confused electorate which has been given no clear indication what the game plan is, will effectively help Conservatives by splitting the vote (See Chantal Hebert: May-Dion deal might work out for Harper).
The current strategy, therefore, having little chance of accomplishing the stated goal – to at all costs unseat Mr. Harper – then what prey tell is the real objective? To get Elizabeth May a seat in the house of commons? Surely there were easier ridings to pick than Central Nova. Based on the by-election results alone, London, for example was at least 50/50 even without Liberal support, and a slam-dunk with it. In this case, I suppose not making Glen Pearson the sacrificial lamb was more important than saving the planet.
Instead, the confused electorate represent an opportunity for Stephen Harper and for NDP leader Jack Layton. But confusion has a short shelf life, so the deal is likely to cause Jack Layton to side with Stephen Harper in causing an election to be called:
So where does this leave us? Simple, real simple. More than ever Mr. Harper is going to want to go now, not later. Mr. Harper has only his own evolution to know that sooner or later the left is going to unite. And even in this new world that is content with, even preferring minority governments and a strive toward some form of Proportional Representation, Mr. Harper’s chances aren’t likely to get a lot better. The good news for Mr. Dion is the 50/50 chance he’s bottomed out. The less good news is the ascent from current support levels will not be swift.
The problem for Mr. Harper is how to orchestrate his own defeat without looking like a fibber or a chess-master in light of a Liberal leader who may finally be figuring out he needs time; time for whatever good comes from unification and barring further implosion. The question remains, does Mr. Dion have enough players willing to play, and what about that time factor?
I suspect that for one of the players, Jack Layton, on the time factor, the leader of the NDP may suddenly change his tune. If Mr. Layton is correct – and we are still in the midst of finding this out – that the manner in which Mr. Dion and Ms. May have come together is laced with problems, then the opportunity for its detractors to do just that, detract, is huge.
Mr. Layton couldn’t get to a microphone fast enough last Friday. By contrast, we have yet to hear much, if anything, from a seemingly wiser and more patient Mr. Harper who I suspect is carefully reviewing and considering this latest twist. Soon enough, if he hasn’t already, Mr. Harper will figure things out and find himself at the Governor General’s door, quite possibly with Mr. Layton offering him the ride over on the back of his 10 speed.
I like Dan's writing style.
To summarize, Dan Baril thinks that the deal is a bad one because it will not realize any net gains for the Green Party, because it targets the wrong riding, and because it encourages the Conservatives and the NDP to work together to weaken or eliminate the Liberals and the Greens.
Sounds plausible. I guess we'll see what happens in the next days and weeks.
In the mean time, I hope whatever Elizabeth May gets out of this deal is worth it to her. Like Baril, I only see downsides.
What's next for Dan? He might have gone back to helping his friend Garth Turner:
Garth,
Dan Baril, on his website, indicates he approached you during the last election to offer strategic advice, I assume.
Was he hired/compensated?
Dan has provided me with some outstanding strategic advice, and at an outstanding price. He’s a volunteer. — Garth
But now that Garth Turner is working for the Liberals, that wouldn't make any sense. I mean, how do you quit working for Elizabeth May over her relationship with the Liberals, just to go over and work for the Liberals anyway. I know it's not the same situation really, but most people wouldn't care about the subtleties.
