Angry in the Great White North

Jean Charest, whose Liberal Party squeaked out a minority government in last night's Quebec election, repeated something I've heard over and over again from politicians:

Mr. Charest agreed that the results were historic and said they represented a "severe judgment" of his government. "The result is that Quebecers ask us to continue to direct the government of Quebec, but with a strong opposition," he said. "We accept their wish. Our party will work with all the parties in the National Assembly to give Quebecers a stable government that will have to defend Quebec's interests."

Of course, this is nonsense. Quebec voters did not meet in a pub just before voting to decide what to do. They did not agree that Marcel and Carole would vote Liberal, but Jacques and Etienne would vote PQ, and Henri and Francoise would cast ballots for the ADQ.

We have to assume that everyone who voted Liberal wanted the Liberals to win a majority.

We have to assume that everyone who voted PQ wanted the PQ to win a majority.

We have to assume that everyone who voted ADQ wanted the ADQ to win a majority.

What we learned was that a majority of voters did not agree with the Liberals and what they proposed.

What we learned was that a majority of voters did not agree with the PQ and what they proposed.

What we learned was that a majority of voters did not agree with the ADQ and what they proposed.

Of course, only the ADQ showed growth since the last election, so they are definitely winners.

The Liberals maintain their hold on power, so they've won as well, but barely. Since they've lost the freedom to govern as they saw fit by losing a majority, this will be seen as a loss overall.

The PQ? Well, they lost. Not much of a silver lining there.

There is no master plan here, nor a message from the electorate. There is a condensation of the chaotic political views of millions of Quebeckers into a particular configuration of representatives as filtered through the electoral process. The configuration is really the result of the type of process we use in Canada, the First-Past-the-Post scheme. The same voting intentions filtered through a Preferential system, for example, would result in an entirely different configuration.

Clearly there is no single voter message, not when the results are a function of the voting method.

Jean Charest and the Liberals won. They should take solace in that. But the majority of Quebeckers did not want them to rule with a strong opposition. The majority wanted him out of office. Hopefully he isn't ignoring that fact when not delivering speeches to campaign workers.