Gilles Duceppe's awful night
Gilles Duceppe has so many reasons to be miserable tonight, now that the Quebec election results are in.
Gilles Duceppe, the leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, has his pick of bad news tonight.
First, the Parti Quebecois has crashed in Quebec, coming in third behind the centrist Liberals and the right-of-centre ADQ. So even though PQ leader Andre Boisclair is almost certainly out of a job, taking over the PQ must seem less like a dream come true. Who knows how long before the PQ can come back to power? Taking over a party relegated to the wilderness is the job of a caretaker leader -- not something Gilles Duceppe is looking for.
Second, given the PQ failure, the BQ as the federalist farm team is in a precarious position. Clearly Quebeckers are rejecting sovereignty, and that undermines the BQ position. And if there is an election soon, Gilles Duceppe might find himself following Andre Boisclair out into the political darkness.
Third, the PQ has lost to those right-wing ADQ nuts! I mean, Quebec defines progressivism in Canada, doesn't it? How can Quebeckers choose anything but a statist-socialist program?
And the worst part -- it all hits home. Gilles Duceppe's brother Claude was running for the PQ in the riding of Joliette. He lost to one of those free-market private-health-care-loving ADQ guys, Pascal Beaupre.
Adding insult to injury. But Gilles Duceppe has to be wondering, how do I make sure there is only one loser at the next Duceppe family gathering?
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Comments
Make no mistake, Harper is now guaranteed a majority. Easily: 40 to 55 Quebec seats, even more.(He got 10 out of Quebec last time). Most seats will come out of Gilles's BQ and some Lib seats too.
Even if the ROC stays the same, Quebec will give Harper what he needs.
Spin it all you want Lib supporters but the Fed Libs under Dion are mortally(?) wounded this AM.
Duceppe's Bloc will be hit very hard too, unless but unlikely, Qcers strategically still keeps most Bloc as 'leverage' in Ottawa.
I predict Charest and Dumont will eventually 'work together' as Charest is more a small c Conservative than a Liberal. Harper will secretly help both through with advice and being that Charest is now on his way out as Lib leader and thus one would safely think it will make it that much easier for an interim alliance with Dumont, Harper will offer him (Charest) chances to run in Fed Conservative land as possible future reward.
The long term strategic goal (Harper's dream) here is to kick start Quebec out of it's stagnant socialism and high debt (120+ B $...the highest per capita).
This is now Quebecers true test of resolve. Yes they voted for change and clean up their act but will they walk the walk this time? Charest tried and the powerful gov unions revolted and he had to backtrack.
We now have a better scenario though...Charest and Dumont combined seats vs. the weak PQ who won't be so influencial as to promise impossible fiscal dreams and thus sabotage a long and bumpy road ahead (About a decade of collective belt tightening IMO, not unlike Alberta did)...And this is where Duceppe might be of some stength if he starts playing yet another round of "Ottawa is trying to screw us" again.
Posted by: metalguru at March 27, 2007 07:52 AM
Good summation Steve. I wouldn't want to stand to close to Gilles for fear of being struck by lightning.
Posted by: northbaytrapper at March 27, 2007 12:38 PM
What nobody seems to mention is, that this result makes it most unlikely we will gave a federal election any time soon. Harper needs all three parties to join together to bring him down, the Bloc would be crazy to do so. Not only based on the results, but the Bloc and PQ use the same volunteer base and financial base, how anxious can the grass roots be to have another go.
I think this election virtually guarantees no federal election in 2007.
Posted by: Brian Gardienr at March 27, 2007 02:11 PM
 
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