The real disaster for Stephane Dion is not the raw support numbers. If it showed a mass of NDP or undecided supporters moving to the Conservatives, that would be bad news, but perhaps not fatal.
The reality, though, is that Liberals are abandoning Stephane Dion in droves:
The poll shows that Dion has been unsuccessful in retaining the support of Canadians who voted for the Liberals in the January 2006 federal election. While 85% of voters who supported the Tories last year intend to do so again, only 66% of Liberal voters are willing to cast a ballot for the Dion-led Grits.
The numbers clearly show that an early election would be disadvantageous for the opposition parties at this stage. Dion has effectively lost the support of a third of the Canadians who voted Liberal in 2006.
Stephane Dion appears on television as the new Liberal Party leader, and one in three Liberals watching change the channel.
You know the powers-that-be that rule over the Liberal Party are looking at this (or at the two-thirds of the powers-that-be that haven't jumped ship) and asking themselves a series of questions: