Conservatives lead in the polls (and the rewards of patience)
The buzz has been about polls. I've held off saying anything in part because yesterday we only had one poll. Now today we have two. And the Conservatives are swimming in good news.
The Decmina Research poll has been all over the news:
Talk of a spring election heated up yesterday with the release of new polling data showing the rising Conservatives holding an almost double-digit lead over the fading Liberals.
A Decima Research survey shows the Conservatives returning to 36% support nationally -- the exact level the party received in the last federal election more than a year ago. This comes with a nine percentage point lead developing over the faltering Grits, who now hold 27% in the national poll released to The Canadian Press.
In a television interview, Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the Conservatives' attack ads and its repositioning on the environment probably explains its surge ahead of the Liberals.
For various reasons, I've waited on commenting on it. The engineer in me likes to see more than a single data point before deciding how to react a data set. On the other hand, people with other backgrounds react immediately. A lawyer like Jason Cherniak will react immediately, and in his case, he'll attack:
Anybody know why the media is not reporting this poll? It shows the Tories at 36% and the Liberals at... 34%.
I still don't think the polls mean much at this particular time, but I'll admit that I feel a lot better now.
The poll he is pointing to is one from Angus Reid, dated February 28:
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for the Conservative party increased this month in Canada, according to a poll by Ipsos-Reid released by CanWest Global. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next federal election.
The Liberal party is second with 34 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 13 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with nine per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent. Support for the Tories increased by two points since December, while backing for the Grits fell by the same margin.
Jason ought to think like an engineer, and be more conservative. If he had waited, he would have been able to use the latest Angus Reid numbers from March 2:
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party holds a 14-point lead in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 40 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.
The Liberal party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 10 per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent.
Ouch. That would seem to be worse for Stephane Dion and the Liberals, not better. Two different polls, two different sets of questions, two different polling firms -- the same results. Not a great data set, but perhaps the best that can be expected in politics.
Maybe there was a reason no one was talking about that older poll. Maybe no one else believed it, or they had reason to know it was wrong.
Or maybe they were just waiting for more data to come in.
It should be noted that the Angus Reid Poll and the Decima Poll dramatically differ on the strength of the Green Party. Decima puts the Greens at par with the NDP, while Angus Reid puts the Greens well behind. I'm not surprised since both parties have such low support. In a poll sample, the number of people supporting the NDP and the Greens each is very low compared to the portion of the sample supporting the two larger parties. So I would expect the NDP and Green party numbers to swing wildly as perhaps as few as two or three people answer differently to the pollsters.
Correction: I didn't pay attention to the sample size. The Angus Reid poll showing the NDP ahead of the Greens used a much larger sample size than the Decima poll which put them neck-and-neck. The point that small sample size can influence these secondary parties is still true, and probably applies to the Decima poll. The Angus Reid poll, with its larger sample, might be hewing closer to the truth.
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Comments
In truth, how can anyone expect the Polls to be otherwise? How can the people
of Canada possibly even contemplate voting for the Liberals in their present
state and a Leader who really hasn't got it together?
For gawds sake he can't make himself coherent in Anglais! Some of us like
to know what he's talking about.
This Decima poll was done before the Terror Act vote so it's likely a bigger
bigger spread now.
Dion made a stupid bone headed choice between Party a whipped party
unity display and the security of Canadians.
The man is LOST.
Posted by: Liz J at March 2, 2007 07:46 AM
Forgot to mention, it's impossible to even lip read what Mr. Dion is saying
in English! Even the reporters are having trouble. Guess they'll be forgiven
for spinning, who's to know?
Posted by: Liz J at March 2, 2007 07:49 AM
I agree with Liz J re little Dion: the man is lost--and so's Canada if we EVER vote in a party led (sic) by him.
Thank G*d, it finally looks as though Canadians are beginning to see the light re leadership in our country. The only party that can lead Canada forward is the CPC, with Prime Minister Stephen Harper at the helm. The guy's a brilliant strategist, he's responsible, accountable, disciplined, and a hard worker. He da man.
Posted by: 'been around the block at March 2, 2007 07:51 AM
Steve, what difference do these two polls make? Just how far off is the next election anyhow?
It has become cliché to say that the only poll that matters is the one on election day. Well, there's a reason that it has become a cliché. People inexplicably pay attention to these polls, months or years away from an election. And it is only an election that puts politicians into the House.
And those politicians are not put in there due to a national poll per se; instead, they are polled riding by riding. It is entirely possible for those riding by riding results to differ wildly even if national poll results don't change at all, depending on whether the support is concentrated or diffuse.
These polls make not one iota of difference, and I don't see why anyone pays them any heed.
Posted by: Ed Minchau at March 2, 2007 08:08 AM
Liz, how can you expect to know what Monsieur Dion is taking about when he has no clue what he's talking about?
Posted by: Conrad at March 2, 2007 08:31 AM
I do find it kind of funny how the liberal bloggers are poo-pooing these polls yet when they were showing the Libs at 40% a few weeks ago, it was gung-ho "where going to win a majority".
Face it, the partisan part of us loves it when it appears that our side is winning.
I look at these numbers with trepidation as the knives, guns, saws, mallets and all manner of torture devices will be aimed right at the Tories.
The Libs have not governed for as long as they have by playing nice.
The only good thing, Dion and his merry band have played partisan politics with some pretty big issues lately - ATA and Kyoto, and now they seem to be toying with the union thing. Pass that and watch their poll numbers sink further.
Hang on folks, it's going to be a bumpy but interesting ride!!
Posted by: Alberta Girl at March 2, 2007 09:14 AM
"where going to win a majority"
Good lord - my use of the english language is as bad as Dion's there! He must be using mind control or something!
Should have been "we're going to win a majority"
Posted by: Alberta Girl at March 2, 2007 09:18 AM
Funny , we're seeing a lot of Liberals saying Polls don't matter these past
two days, NDPers as well are really dissing them.
Even smart Liberals are admitting they're not ready to govern, these polls
are reflecting that.
Posted by: Liz J at March 2, 2007 09:21 AM
Ed: The polls are not meant to make a difference, the polls are conducted to measure something. Poll results are of interest to the ones who pay for them, so they must be making some iota of difference to them. Your breakdown of polling is all taking into consideration ( there is some science applied to these polls you know)
I personally enjoy seeing the results of the latest polls and take comfort in knowing that Prime Minister Harper's message is resonating with Canadians, even with all the Liberal fear-mongering in play. I suppose all of Mr.Dion's leadership skills
(CHOKE) are having a great influence on the poll results as well.
Just my 2 cents ...... on a slushy day
BT
Posted by: banjotom at March 2, 2007 09:24 AM
Yes it does seem the party and the party supporters who do poorly in a poll say only the election matters. If the polls did not matter, the parties would not be paying for polling between elections. Follow the money as to relevance. Whether or not a poll is relevant is what the data show. These polls seem to show widespread dissatisfaction among Liberal-leaning voters with Dion.
Posted by: murray at March 2, 2007 10:44 AM
Iggy (it's a side show) and Ralph (I demand an apology) have had the most air time.
Canadians must be giving them the thumbs down too.
Posted by: wilson61 at March 2, 2007 11:50 AM
I believe these new polling numbers reflect Canadians acceptance of Stephen Harper as the prime minister moreso than their rejection of Dion. However once Canadians see and hear Dion face to face in election leaders debates ... well I think that Canadians will even consider Duceppe preferable as Canada's prime minister.
With Dion as leader, the Liberals are going to continue dropping in the poll ... which will force them to review his leadership potential and then replace him pronto.
Posted by: Observer at March 2, 2007 12:18 PM
Murray, I am a Conservative party supporter. And I still say that these polls mean nothing.
Posted by: Ed Minchau at March 2, 2007 12:22 PM
Angus Reid Strategies & Ipsos-Reid are two different polling organizations
Posted by: Brendan Kane at March 2, 2007 12:32 PM
Liz, don't you think that saying "smart liberals" is a bit of an oxymoron?
Posted by: Conrad at March 2, 2007 01:24 PM
Conrad, yes "smart liberals" is an oxymoron .
File under: What was i thinking!
Posted by: Liz J at March 2, 2007 02:48 PM
The truth is that polls can be used to wield power given a minority government situation. The power Steven Harper gains from these polls is the threat of making any vote he needs passed a confidence vote and so dare Jack Gilles and Stephane to defeat it and face the wrath of the electorate who is already against them.
Posted by: joe at March 2, 2007 06:21 PM
Nice point joe.
Posted by: Simon at March 2, 2007 07:26 PM
Wasn't it Cherniak that said historically the Liberals never sink below 29%.
Posted by: jgriffin at March 2, 2007 07:29 PM
Ed, I don't mean to suggest your opinion is without merit; often it seems the polls are either unreliable or Canadians are quite fickle and reactive. But it does make me wonder why you clicked to "read more" on this topic. Morbid curiousity to view a train wreck of flawed reasoning, perhaps?
Posted by: murray at March 2, 2007 09:22 PM
Historically the Liberals never do drop much below 30% in support at any time, or for any reason. Adscam and the gun registry should have them on the fringe of existence. This 30% "rule" appeared in the National Post two elections ago, and except in rare occasions, I would tend to agree with it. Stephane Dion, however, could easily break this rule if Canadians are paying attention. In this case I am cheering him along!
Posted by: KRF at March 2, 2007 11:24 PM
 
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