Angry in the Great White North

The Decmina Research poll has been all over the news:

Talk of a spring election heated up yesterday with the release of new polling data showing the rising Conservatives holding an almost double-digit lead over the fading Liberals.

A Decima Research survey shows the Conservatives returning to 36% support nationally -- the exact level the party received in the last federal election more than a year ago. This comes with a nine percentage point lead developing over the faltering Grits, who now hold 27% in the national poll released to The Canadian Press.

In a television interview, Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the Conservatives' attack ads and its repositioning on the environment probably explains its surge ahead of the Liberals.

For various reasons, I've waited on commenting on it. The engineer in me likes to see more than a single data point before deciding how to react a data set. On the other hand, people with other backgrounds react immediately. A lawyer like Jason Cherniak will react immediately, and in his case, he'll attack:

Anybody know why the media is not reporting this poll? It shows the Tories at 36% and the Liberals at... 34%.

I still don't think the polls mean much at this particular time, but I'll admit that I feel a lot better now.

The poll he is pointing to is one from Angus Reid, dated February 28:

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for the Conservative party increased this month in Canada, according to a poll by Ipsos-Reid released by CanWest Global. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next federal election.

The Liberal party is second with 34 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 13 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with nine per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent. Support for the Tories increased by two points since December, while backing for the Grits fell by the same margin.

Jason ought to think like an engineer, and be more conservative. If he had waited, he would have been able to use the latest Angus Reid numbers from March 2:

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party holds a 14-point lead in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 40 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

The Liberal party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 10 per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent.

Ouch. That would seem to be worse for Stephane Dion and the Liberals, not better. Two different polls, two different sets of questions, two different polling firms -- the same results. Not a great data set, but perhaps the best that can be expected in politics.

Maybe there was a reason no one was talking about that older poll. Maybe no one else believed it, or they had reason to know it was wrong.

Or maybe they were just waiting for more data to come in.

It should be noted that the Angus Reid Poll and the Decima Poll dramatically differ on the strength of the Green Party. Decima puts the Greens at par with the NDP, while Angus Reid puts the Greens well behind. I'm not surprised since both parties have such low support. In a poll sample, the number of people supporting the NDP and the Greens each is very low compared to the portion of the sample supporting the two larger parties. So I would expect the NDP and Green party numbers to swing wildly as perhaps as few as two or three people answer differently to the pollsters.

Correction: I didn't pay attention to the sample size. The Angus Reid poll showing the NDP ahead of the Greens used a much larger sample size than the Decima poll which put them neck-and-neck. The point that small sample size can influence these secondary parties is still true, and probably applies to the Decima poll. The Angus Reid poll, with its larger sample, might be hewing closer to the truth.