Angry in the Great White North

Like I said, this is a rumbling of a rumbling, but it makes a lot of sense. Gossip isn't news, though it can be thought-provoking.

First, there is the history between Stephane Dion and Jean Lapierre, as summarized by Paul Wells:

Jean Lapierre announced his retirement from politics. He did it a bit less spectacularly this time: In 1990 he stormed out of a Liberal leadership convention as soon as his preferred candidate, Martin, lost - and within weeks he had helped form the Bloc Quebecois. This time he waited for a few weeks after his only patron and indefatigable admirer, Martin, delivered a farewell speech at another Liberal leadership convention. And instead of making a scene, Lapierre announced his departure on the radio. He will not be forming a political party this time; he'll just work in television.

When Lapierre returned to the Liberal party and to federal politics, almost exactly three years ago, the Sheila Fraser audit that launched Adscam hadn't been unveiled; the Paul Martin Liberals enjoyed a solid polling lead; and the world seemed fresh and new. The Liberals' prospects in Quebec seemed boundless. Lapierre's job was to wander around the province, hoovering up ridings previously held by the Bloc Quebecois.

Lapierre cheerfully set about recruiting candidates who had never stood up for Canada - at one news conference he unveiled seven, whose unifying characteristic was that they used to be Bloc or Parti Quebecois members - and purging some of the other kind.

In St. Laurent-Cartierville, Lapierre recruited a Lebanese-Canadian journalist as the party's standard-bearer for a riding with a large Arab population and began organizing to take the riding away from the incumbent, Stephane Dion. (When that move became controversial, Lapierre abandoned the effort.)

So Lapierre had put a hit out on Dion's political future. It was called off, but only because of the uproar. Could Dion forgive something like this?

Then Lapierre's shine wore off, and Paul Martin, who had purged Dion from cabinet in favour of Lapierre, turned to Dion for help:

On the tenth anniversary of the 1995 referendum, Martin telephoned Stephane Dion and asked him to write some newspaper op-eds about the evolution of Canada in the intervening decade. It was an odd request, given that Martin's handpicked lieutenant had only recently targeted Dion for elimination - but really, to whom could Martin turn? Lapierre has always refused to say how he voted in 1995. The secret ballot is a right every Canadian enjoys, but it did make Lapierre an awkward standard-bearer.

Hardly a recipe for a good working relationship.

Then Dion wins the Liberal leadership (Lapierre would never reveal who he supported for Liberal leader, just as he never revealed how he voted in the 1995 Quebec referedum on separation), and Lapierre bolts from the party.

Of course, the official story -- Lapierre had long planned to leave, and that this was Lapierre's idea -- is consistent with the facts as we know them.

But then there are the rumblings...

If indeed Dion pushed Lapierre out of the Liberal Party, you have to wonder why now? Wajid Khan has just bolted to the Conservatives, so two high profile caucus losses would look bad. Of course, Mark Persaud has since left, so now we're up to three Liberals gone (it should be noted that Persaud was not an MP but a senior party executive).

For that we have to consider who will run in Lapierre's place.

The rumour mill is abuzz that Justin Trudeau, son of Pierre Elliot Trudeau, is mulling over a run.

A Trudeau in caucus would be a major headache for Dion. Dion's support from the Quebec caucus was thin at best, and his command of English is poor, and potentially a liability. Justin, on the other hand, is young and comes from a spotless Liberal pedigree. The Trudeau name might be a tough sell in some parts of Quebec, but it is known, and you can't buy that sort of publicity. He's photogenic and flawlessly bilingual.

Justin did support Dion in the leadership campaign after Trudeau's first choice, Gerard Kennedy, dropped out. I'm sure Dion was grateful for the powerful endorsement, but that's in the past. And certainly that gratitude does not extend to having a Trudeau in caucus:

Pierre Trudeau's eldest son joined the Liberal riding association in the relatively safe riding of Outremont about two months ago, Montreal's La Presse newspaper reported.

But it appears some Liberals are opposed to the idea of seeing the former prime minister's son run for the seat, the newspaper added.

La Presse reports that Liberal leader Stephane Dion was planning on reserving the riding for high-profile candidates who could help the rebuild the party's support in Quebec.

According to the newspaper, Dion has made it clear to some Liberals that the 35-year-old Trudeau is not the star candidate he was seeking.

Trudeau rubs a lot of Liberals the wrong way:

"Neither the young Liberals nor the older ones want to have anything to do with him," said one anonymous Liberal on whom La Presse bestowed the status of "trustworthy."

"What has Trudeau done that's so marvelous to earn him a riding like that one?" another said, while a third claimed that "some members are saying they won't work with a candidate whose dream is to grace of the cover of a [celebrity gossip rag]."

The same day, Le Soleil's Michel C. Auger wrote on his blog that Trudeau simply lacks the intellectual fortitude to join Dion's team - taking particular exception to a Radio-Canada interview in which Trudeau suggested he didn't need to spend a lifetime developing his political ideas because his father "gave them to us ready-made."

Well, that's convenient. Trudeau-ina-bottle. Just add one safe riding and serve.

So how does this feed into the timing of Lapierre's departure?

Jason Cherniak almost gets it right:

By resigning sooner rather than later, Lapierre gives Brigitte Legault an advantage over Justin Trudeau in a nomination race.

No, Jason, Lapierre did not give Legault an advantage. Dion delivered that gift. Or delivered that dagger thrust. Depending on whether you support Legault or Trudeau.

So Dion sees Trudeau maneauvering to make a run for parliament. He knows Lapierre is on the way out -- Lapierre is not a welcome member of the Dion caucus and Lapierre knows it. Trudeau lives in the riding adjoining Lapierre's, making it an ideal riding for Trudeau to run for (Trudeau's home riding of Mount Royal is represented by Liberal heavyweight Irwin Cotler, and despite rumblings from Cotler about the Liberal stand on Israel -- Irwin Cotler's wife, Ariela, very publicly resigned from the Liberal Party over it -- there is no indication right now that Irwin Cotler is preparing to leave).

What Trudeau needs is time to build up a strong enough support base among the riding Liberals to take the nomination should the riding become open, even in the face of opposition of Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party brass. By pushing Lapierre out, not only does Dion enjoy some personal revenge (while hiding behind Lapierre's public statements that his time in politics was coming to an end), he cuts Trudeau off at the knees, unable to mount an effective nomination challenge against Dion's handpicked candidate, whoever that turns out to be.

So this hint of a rumour I'm hearing seems to make sense. The rumour that Dion pushed Lapierre out fits the facts, and indeed, fits better since it ties in a number of other threads as well.

But it's just gossip right now, and will likely remain so unless someone goes on record.

Addendum: Warren Kinsella had this to say:

I also know something else: Stephane Dion needs to condemn - right now, right out in the open - the people who are attempting to smear Justin anonymously. That's the old Martin-era way of doing things. The Liberal Party doesn't need to see it starting all over again - to Justin Trudeau or anyone else.

Of course, if Stephane Dion is behind some of this... Of course, this story is coming from yet another one of those anonymous sources.