Remember that memo by Doug Finley? The one that said the Conservatives feared Michael Ignatieff and hoped Bob Rae would win? Some people said it was a I wrote about the Doug Finley memo on September 29, and I thought it was real.
Guess I was wrong. Conservatives are admitting to messing with Liberal minds:
One Conservative aide took pride in pointing out that his party fabricated an internal party memo suggesting their troops were most afraid of Michael Ignatieff -- and most anxious to face Rae.
The ersatz memo was leaked to a pair of English- and French-language newspapers and ran under headlines that cast it as a behind-the-scenes peek at Tory strategy.
The name of Tory campaign chair Doug Finley, the supposed author of the memo, was stamped on the document as an afterthought.
The Tories then made arrangements to get the memo leaked through a third party to English and French newspapers, Tory sources said.
It was part of a plan to kill Bob Rae's leadership bid:
In recent months some leading Tories admitted privately that Rae was the Liberal candidate they feared the most.
Their admissions became public the instant Rae was eliminated from the race.
See, the memo explains that Bob Rae is the candidate the Tories preferred to face. Liberals read it. For those supporting Bob Rae, the conclusion is that the memo is a lie. But they weren't the target of the memo. The target was supporters of the other candidates who had to decide between Rae and one of the other surviving candidates on the second and subsequent ballots. They already have doubts about Rae, and the memo would have played on those doubts, reinforcing them, giving them just one more reason to follow their instincts, taking their vote elsewhere.
Bob Rae didn't even make it to the final round of balloting. Maybe the memo (and the fake buttons and other tricks) really worked.
But what is interesting is what the "fake" memo said about Stephane Dion:
- Dion: There was good news and bad news for Stephane Dion. With respect to the good news, he appears to be more popular amongst ordinary Quebeckers than the province's media establishment gives him credit for. And although they think he was part of the same old Chretien-Martin gang, only a few thought his hand was directly in the sponsorship jar. Outside of Quebec, Dion was a tougher sell. Jast as Quebeckers critized Kennedy's English, people outside of Quebec criticized Dion for his English. With respect to his campaigning ability, he was rated the most boring of the contenders. As one participant in Coquitlam said: "This guy makes Harper look exciting."
First, there is the error that was never highlighted. People in Quebec criticized Kennedy's French skills, not English skills.
Funny that I never noticed that before.
Second, if this memo was a fake, then some Conservative wrote the "Harper exciting" line. Heh.
Still, I wonder just how much of the memo is really a lie. A good lie is mostly truthful -- that's what makes a good lie so believable. I think the analysis in the memo is still accurate. I think the operation simply adjusted the wording and the emphasis in such a way as to put Bob Rae in the cross-hairs. If the target had been one of the other contenders, 99% of the memo would have read the same, with only a bit of tweaking to switch targets.
If that's the case, the Conservatives think they will be facing a Liberal Party that is stronger in Quebec than it was before the convention. If so, expect more moves from Ottawa designed to play especially well in Quebec.
Update: Unless the Conservatives wanted us to think that Stephane Dion would do better in Quebec than he actually will...wheels turning within wheels...
