London North Centre: NDP loses an election, a lot of credibility, but earns a new label
The London North Centre by-election in Ontario is over. No surprise that the Liberal Party held on to the seat that has been a safe one for a decade and longer. The story in this by-election is the rising fortune of the Green Party, almost entirely at the expense of the NDP.
In fact, the Green Party crushed the NDP.
So who's the "wasted vote" now?
The by-election in London North Centre had only one surprise. It was not that the Liberals won a seat that they've held since the riding was created in 1997. It was the collapse of the NDP vote in favour of the Greens:
Leader Elizabeth May failed to become the first Green Party member of Parliament during an Ontario byelection Monday night, losing out to Liberal candidate Glen Pearson.
But May had a strong showing, finishing second in the polls and taking roughly five times the vote that the Green Party got last January.
The Greens drew votes from all parties as they were the only party to increase their support since the last election.
The Liberals and Conservatives dropped five and six percentage points respectively since the January election.
NDP candidate Megan Walker received only 14 per cent of the vote in Monday night's byelecton, a 10-point drop from the last election.
In the 2006 general election last February, the Liberals won with 40% of the cast votes, the Conservatives had 30%, and the NDP had a close third place showing with 24%. The Greens registered a blip at 5%.
In this week's by-election, the Liberals slipped to 35% of the cast vote, the Conservatives slipped the same amount to 24%, and the Greens roared up 26%, while the NDP were sent to the back of the line with a mere 14% of the vote.
The NDP candidate was Megan Walker. The Green Party candidate was newly elected party leader Elizabeth May.
I know this is just a by-election, but it is suggestive. First, the claim that the Green Party somehow threatens to split the progressive vote might be aiming the criticism at the wrong party. It might be the NDP that is needlessly diluting the progressive vote.
Many would say that a statement like that is not justified based on the results of one by-election, what with the protest vote against all established parties playing a larger role than would be true in a general election. True enough. But what is not easily dismissed is that these results -- a huge Green gain almost entirely at the expense of the NDP -- is a major body blow to the NDP's credibility on environmental issues. Environmentalists will use these results to justify continuing to vote Green instead of strategically for the NDP.
The fate of smaller parties is always to be labeled "a waste".
Don't vote for the Green Party, says the NDP, because it is a wasted vote.
Don't vote for the NDP, says the Liberal Party, because it is a wasted vote.
Things change. And now the NDP has to be worrying. If the Greens start edging out the NDP is ridings, or even stomp all over the NDP as in London North Centre, the Green Party will start calling the NDP the "wasted vote".
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Comments
Bob Rae would agree that NDP is a wasted vote - this has been one of his reasons for jumping ship and trying to be perceived as a Liberal.
Posted by: Katy at November 28, 2006 11:26 AM
So what? The reality is their leader was running, a leader is always (supposed to be) a strong candidate. All three major parties come in third place in different ridings all over the country, it's not a big deal.
Also, there is a difference between "almost all," as you say, and the situation here. The Greens gained 11%, 10% from the NDP, 6% from the CPC, and 5% for the Liberals. Granted, most of their gain came from the NDP, but the amount the NDP "lost" was not even half of the Greens' gain.
Posted by: RP. at November 28, 2006 12:31 PM
Eep. 11% = 21%
Posted by: RP. at November 28, 2006 12:35 PM
According to my math half of the increase of the green vote did indeed come from the NDP.
Green=+21%
Lib=-5%
Cons=-6%
NDP=-10%
Posted by: paulsstuff at November 28, 2006 04:16 PM
Perhaps much of the gain occurred because fewer voters showed up for a less consequential by election, which created an opportunity for the Green Party to work really hard to muster a credible showing. It does seem to show, however, that the Green Party has displaced the NDP as the anti-establishment vote.
Posted by: murray at November 28, 2006 04:33 PM
According to one of the MSM sites, voter turnout was around 42% for london and an even more dismal 34% in the Quebec riding. I don't know what the usual voter turnout is in a by-election, but that seems pretty low.
Posted by: Pat at November 28, 2006 06:41 PM
Murray, you are likely correct that teh low voter turnout had an impact. For these parties, though the image of momentum is important. If voters who are on the fence see the Green party as a real option with a real chance of winning, they are more likely to switch in increasing numbers.
Posted by: davey at November 28, 2006 07:22 PM
Murray, you are likely correct that the low voter turnout had an impact. For these parties, though the image of momentum is important. If voters who are on the fence see the Green party as a real option with a real chance of winning, they are more likely to switch in increasing numbers.
Posted by: davey at November 28, 2006 07:23 PM
I guess I'll take your word for it, paulsstuff. I was never so strong at math, but I was under the perhaps mistaken impression that 10 was less than half of 21.
Anyway, the only point I was trying to make is you can't discern a trend from one incident. The NDP also came in 2nd in the Repentigny by-election, ahead of the Liberals. I'm not going to suggest that the NDP is now the 2nd place party in Quebec because of it.
Posted by: RP. at November 29, 2006 08:08 AM
And of course, by 2nd, I meant 3rd, but still ahead of the Liberals.
Posted by: RP. at November 29, 2006 08:13 AM
Of course, by 2nd, I meant 3rd.
Posted by: RP. at November 29, 2006 08:15 AM
Ok,if it makes you happy they onle accounted for 48% of the greens increase.As for Repentigny i'm pretty surry ndp was third, a little ahead of the libs.
Posted by: paulsstuff at November 29, 2006 08:35 PM
LONDON NORTH CENTRE
253 of 253 polls reporting
38,123 of 89,139 registered electors (42.8 per cent)
Glen Pearson, Liberal: 13,287 (34.9)
Elizabeth May, Green: 9,864 (25.9)
Dianne Haskett, Conservative: 9,309 (24.4)
Megan Walker, NDP: 5,388 (14.1)
Steve Hunter, Progressive Canadian: 145 (0.4)
Robert Ede, Independent: 77 (0.2)
Will Arlow, Canadian Action: 53 (0.1)
REPENTIGNY
217 of 217 polls reporting
31,143 of 85,264 registered electors (36.5 per cent)
Raymond Gravel, Bloc Quebecois: 20,635 (66.3)
Stephane Bourgon, Conservative: 5,822 (18.7)
Rejean Bellemare, NDP: 2,183 (7.0)
Christian Turenne, Liberal: 1,940 (6.2)
Jocelyne Leduc, Independent: 390 (1.3)
Mahmood Raza Baig, Canadian Action: 95 (0.3)
Regent Millette, Independent: 78 (0.3)
Posted by: paulsstuff at November 29, 2006 08:39 PM
 
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